Weekly Bracketology Watch...
The warmth and sunshine of Florida's Gulf Coast is calling, but I had to get one last take in regarding my favorite non-golf time of year - March Madness. As we get closer and closer the big picture gets more clarity. The Big Ten has five in for sure with one on the bubble and another fading while on life support. Following is what Joe Lunardi has in store for our league as of Monday 2/20 followed by where I see the teams going.
- Ohio State is listed as a 2 seed, in the Atlanta bracket (playing in Dayton), slated to face IUPUI. The 7 seed for round two there is Washington, the 10 seed is Southern Illinois. The number one in the bracket is Duke. I see them as a 3 with a good chance to make the Sweet 16.
- Iowa is listed as a 3 seed, in the Oakland bracket (playing in Auburn Hills), slated to play Penn. The next round would be intriguing with 6 seed Oklahoma or 11 seed Arizona lying in wait. The number one in the bracket is Memphis. I see them as a 3 or 4, more likely a 4 and again, a dangerous team for the tournament due to senior leadership.
- Illinois is listed as a 3 seed, in the Washington D.C. bracket (playing in Auburn Hills), slated to play Northwestern State. The 6 seed is West Virginia a team I would not want to face. The 11 is an intriguing Colorado squad. The number one in the Washington D.C. bracket is UConn. I see Illinois as a 3, maybe sliding to a 4 if they are ousted early from the Big Ten Tourney. I also see them as a team to get upset early due to reliance on Brown and a stagnant offense of late.
- Michigan State is listed as a 4 seed, in the Minneapolis bracket (playing in Salt Lake City), slated to play Kent State. The 5 seed is UCLA. The number one in the bracket is Villanova. MSU plays extraordinarily well at home (11-0), horribly on the road (3-6), but good on neutral courts (5-1). I can see this team anywhere from a Sweet 16 team to a NCAA Finalist. I think they land as high as a 3, but more likely a 4 seed.
- Wisconsin is listed as a 5 seed, in the D.C. bracket (playing in Jacksonville), slated to play Western Kentucky. The 4 seed is N.C. State. The number one in the bracket is UConn. I see Wisconsin as a very dangerous 6 or 7 seed when Selection Sunday arrives. Think 2000 when the Badgers were a Final Four team as an 8 seed.
- Michigan is listed as an 11 seed, in the Minneapolis bracket (playing in Jacksonville), slated to play Marquette. The number one in the Minneapolis bracket is Villanova. The injury bug has bitten hard (Harris and Smith come back but Abram is still out and now Hunter is out) and M needs at least one regular season and tourney win to get in. If Michigan slides in, it will be in the 11 spot. The maize and blue are on the bubble, but that is better than Indiana who may miss even the NIT.
Check out the entire bracket breakdown.
Tuesday, February 21, 2006
Monday, February 20, 2006
Monday Afternoon Point Guard...
Still home sweet home... After a gaudy 9-1 week for home teams, the hosts stand at 49-20 overall - a win percentage of .710. More impressive than that is the overall home record of the top five contenders in the Big Ten race: 28-3. Iowa and Michigan State remain uunbeaten at home. What does it mean? The team that can protect the home court over the last two weeks AND escape with a road win or two will be the eventual champ.
Who's gonna be that champ? Well, last week I predicted that we'd stand as such, "Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois will be tied with four losses apiece, and Michigan State will be right there with five. Michigan and Indiana will be two games out." The only part I had wrong was Indiana, but that's an entirely different story. I also said, "I guess if I had a gun to my head, I'd say we're probably looking at Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois and Michigan State atop the conference at 11-5 when all is said and done." So, gun to my head in one wacky year of Big Ten hoops, I'm sticking with a four team tie at the top.
Upset of the week ... Hands down, it was the Minnesota win over Iowa. Iowa was riding high after paying back the Spartans and a win at the venerable "Barn" would have more or less guaranteed a probable outright Big Ten title. Now, Minny getting the "W" at home these days isn't a big upset, but it was a case of a lower tier team picking off another big dog and therefore earns the weekly laurels.
Team of the week ... Probably Wisconsin after a great come-from-behind win over Ohio State at home. Runner-up to Illinois for going 2-0 and also staying right in the thick of the race.
Indiana oh Indiana... My question of the week: Will Indiana play a factor in the rest of the race or roll over and play dead now that they have a lame duck coach? The answer? I really don't know. Seriously. IU got beaten by a Penn State team due for a nice home win and got rolled on the road. No huge surprises with either loss, but this team just looks deflated and like they want nothing more for the season to be over. Given that, I'm guessing that IU gets maybe, MAYBE one more win the rest of the way and misses the postseason all together.
This week's Game of the Week ... With two weeks to go, there are some great games on tap. Ohio State travels to Michigan State for a game integral to the title chase. Iowa travels to Illinois for the same. And don't laugh but Northwestern could give Wisconsin fits in Evanston this weekend. Still, the top game is OSU at MSU, given what it means to the race and what happened when they last met (Double OT thriller in C-bus).
Where do they rank? I'd put the following teams in my Top 25: Illinois (12), Ohio State (16), Michigan State (18), Iowa (20) and Wisconsin (25).
How it will go down ... After this week, Wisconsin and Illinois will be tied with four losses apiece, and Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State will be right there with five.
Still home sweet home... After a gaudy 9-1 week for home teams, the hosts stand at 49-20 overall - a win percentage of .710. More impressive than that is the overall home record of the top five contenders in the Big Ten race: 28-3. Iowa and Michigan State remain uunbeaten at home. What does it mean? The team that can protect the home court over the last two weeks AND escape with a road win or two will be the eventual champ.
Who's gonna be that champ? Well, last week I predicted that we'd stand as such, "Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois will be tied with four losses apiece, and Michigan State will be right there with five. Michigan and Indiana will be two games out." The only part I had wrong was Indiana, but that's an entirely different story. I also said, "I guess if I had a gun to my head, I'd say we're probably looking at Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois and Michigan State atop the conference at 11-5 when all is said and done." So, gun to my head in one wacky year of Big Ten hoops, I'm sticking with a four team tie at the top.
Upset of the week ... Hands down, it was the Minnesota win over Iowa. Iowa was riding high after paying back the Spartans and a win at the venerable "Barn" would have more or less guaranteed a probable outright Big Ten title. Now, Minny getting the "W" at home these days isn't a big upset, but it was a case of a lower tier team picking off another big dog and therefore earns the weekly laurels.
Team of the week ... Probably Wisconsin after a great come-from-behind win over Ohio State at home. Runner-up to Illinois for going 2-0 and also staying right in the thick of the race.
Indiana oh Indiana... My question of the week: Will Indiana play a factor in the rest of the race or roll over and play dead now that they have a lame duck coach? The answer? I really don't know. Seriously. IU got beaten by a Penn State team due for a nice home win and got rolled on the road. No huge surprises with either loss, but this team just looks deflated and like they want nothing more for the season to be over. Given that, I'm guessing that IU gets maybe, MAYBE one more win the rest of the way and misses the postseason all together.
This week's Game of the Week ... With two weeks to go, there are some great games on tap. Ohio State travels to Michigan State for a game integral to the title chase. Iowa travels to Illinois for the same. And don't laugh but Northwestern could give Wisconsin fits in Evanston this weekend. Still, the top game is OSU at MSU, given what it means to the race and what happened when they last met (Double OT thriller in C-bus).
Where do they rank? I'd put the following teams in my Top 25: Illinois (12), Ohio State (16), Michigan State (18), Iowa (20) and Wisconsin (25).
How it will go down ... After this week, Wisconsin and Illinois will be tied with four losses apiece, and Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State will be right there with five.
Friday, February 17, 2006
Some thoughts on a crazy week in the Big Ten...
After making some eyebrow raising comments to the media early this week, Indiana coach Mike Davis did what we all thought he would do - and what most Hoosier fans wish he had done two or more years ago - he announced his resignation effective at the end of the season. This blogger wonders, isn't Indiana's season already over? The loss to Penn State all but sealed another year sans an NCAA Tournament bid.
But back to the topic at hand. Mike Davis. I feel for the guy. So does ESPN.com's Pat Forde. He was never going to win over the fans in the state of Indiana. Never. So, where does that leave IU? Well, the University was afraid that it would lose too many players by not hiring from within when Knight was fired. It can't worry about that now. The time is right to do it right. Go out and get an "Indiana guy" and get Hoosier basketball back where it belongs. It isn't good for the Big Ten when a program like Indiana is struggling. Just as it is bad for the SEC if Kentucky is sliding or the ACC if Duke or North Carolina hit the skids.
Who is the "Indiana guy" they need? The obvious choice seems to be Steve Alford, but aside from his lofty place within Indiana basketball history, does he really have the coaching credentials to get Indiana back to the top? After all, this is the first year his Iowa team is still very much in the race more than two games into league play. Don't get me wrong, growing up in Indiana when Alford was in high school and then at IU, the guy was my basketball idol. But I wonder, is he right for Indiana? Maybe. Maybe not. And he may not come that easy anyway.
Home teams keep rocking...
Iowa put some serious separation between it's title hopes and the contenders with an impressive win over Michigan State on Tuesday and thanks to Wisconsin's gutsy win over Ohio State the next day. The home squads are 5-0 this week and the top six teams in the conference are 30-4 at home. If that trend continues, Iowa will take home its first title since 1979, and maybe it's first outright title since 1970. I don't know what's crazier though, the fact that the black and gold never won a title under Lute Olsen or Tom Davis or the fact that this is the first time since 1987 they'll even finish within a sniff (4 games) of the league crown?
An updated look at the crazy Big Ten standings…
We're getting more and more clarity at the top - well - sort of. Iowa has a firm one game lead at the top and with a win at pesky Minnesota on Saturday (the Gophers have turned it on at home of late and did take Iowa to triple overtime the last time they met) the Hawkeyes will be firmly planted in the driver's seat. Still, don't put it past someone else to make a late run and try to clog the top with a multi-team tie at 11-5 ...
For a reminder of what I predicted, take a look at one of the previous week's reviews. Here is how the teams stand today (in order, with actual OOC record, current B10 record – including home & away, and total record):
1 - Iowa – 11-3 / 9-3 (1st) / 6-0 at home, 3-3 away / 20-6 overall
2 - Wisconsin – 10-3 / 8-4 (6th) / 6-1 at home, 2-3 away / 18-7 overall
3 - Ohio State – 11-0 / 7-4 (5th) / 4-1 at home, 3-3 away / 18-4 overall
3 - Illinois – 14-0 / 7-4 (T-2nd) / 5-1 at home, 2-3 away / 21-4 overall
5 - Michigan – 10-1 / 7-5 (T-2nd) / 5-1 at home, 2-4 away / 17-6 overall
6 - Michigan State – 12-2 / 6-5 (T-2nd) / 4-0 at home, 2-5 away / 18-7 overall
7 - Indiana – 8-3 / 5-6 (7th) / 5-1 at home, 0-5 away / 13-9 overall
8 - Northwestern – 8-4 / 4-7 (8th) / 2-3 at home, 2-4 away / 12-11 overall
9 - Penn State – 8-3 / 4-8 (9th) / 2-5 at home, 2-3 away / 12-11 overall
10 - Minnesota – 9-2 / 3-8 (10th) / 2-3 at home, 1-5 away / 12-10 overall
11 - Purdue – 6-5 / 3-9 (11th) / 3-3 at home, 0-6 away / 9-14 overall
Things seem to be getting a little more predictable at the top, but then again, Saturday is another day. Every time I say that, we see another shocker. All four bottom feeders have beaten contenders and are still big factors in this race. The bigger mess might be sorting out the seeding for the Big Ten tourney which this year, more than any other, could be won by literally any team in the conference.
Here is what I expect the rest of the way (in order of finish, predicted B10 record - including losses (wins for the bottom teams), total record and postseason action):
1 - Iowa: 12-4 / 23-7 / NCAA berth – 3 seed / Loss at Illinois. Iowa caught Indiana at the right time on the road last week and handled MSU with relative ease. Minnesota is a trap game, but other than that, I see the first outright title for Iowa since before I was alive!
2 - Michigan State: 11-5 / 23-7 / NCAA berth – 4 seed / The Spartans finally get some home cooking and it couldn't possibly come at a better time. Indiana does not look like a scary road game any more, although with the way State plays away from the Breslin, any road game might be a horror show.
2 - Illinois: 11-5 / 25-5 / NCAA berth – 3 seed / Losses at Michigan State. Illinois is playing great defense right now and will be in the race until the bitter end.
2 - Ohio State: 11-5 / 22-5 / NCAA berth – 4 seed / Loss at Michigan State. OSU is a year ahead of schedule (based on what is coming in to C-bus talent-wise next season) and will be two gut-wrenching losses to MSU away from an outright title this season.
5 - Wisconsin: 10-6 / 20-9 / NCAA berth – 6 seed / Losses at Michigan State and Iowa. Wisconsin is trudging forward. Wisconsin will definitely factor into the race with trips to MSU and Iowa remaining.
6 - Michigan: 8-8 / 18-9 / NCAA berth – 9 seed / Losses at Michigan State, to Illinois and at Ohio State. Michigan is dinged up and aside from an amazing 20 minutes against Minnesota, has really struggled of late.
7 - Indiana: 7-9 / 15-12/ NIT berth / Losses at Illinois, to Michigan State and at Michigan. Will it be "win for Coach" or "who cares?" the rest of the way in Bloomington? My money is on the latter.
8 - Northwestern: 6-10 / 14-14 / No Postseason / Wins over Minnesota and at Purdue. Still capable of playing the spoiler role, needs to get to 7-9 to assure an NIT bid.
9 - Penn State: 5-12 (9th) / 13-14 / No Postseason / Win at Purdue. See also Northwestern.
10 - Minnesota: 4-12 / 13-14 / No Postseason / Win over Purdue. Minnesota has already sprung two home upsets, and might bite again.
11 - Purdue: 3-13 / 9-18 / No Postseason. I would not put it past Purdue to win a couple more because they are playing tough, inspired ball.
After making some eyebrow raising comments to the media early this week, Indiana coach Mike Davis did what we all thought he would do - and what most Hoosier fans wish he had done two or more years ago - he announced his resignation effective at the end of the season. This blogger wonders, isn't Indiana's season already over? The loss to Penn State all but sealed another year sans an NCAA Tournament bid.
But back to the topic at hand. Mike Davis. I feel for the guy. So does ESPN.com's Pat Forde. He was never going to win over the fans in the state of Indiana. Never. So, where does that leave IU? Well, the University was afraid that it would lose too many players by not hiring from within when Knight was fired. It can't worry about that now. The time is right to do it right. Go out and get an "Indiana guy" and get Hoosier basketball back where it belongs. It isn't good for the Big Ten when a program like Indiana is struggling. Just as it is bad for the SEC if Kentucky is sliding or the ACC if Duke or North Carolina hit the skids.
Who is the "Indiana guy" they need? The obvious choice seems to be Steve Alford, but aside from his lofty place within Indiana basketball history, does he really have the coaching credentials to get Indiana back to the top? After all, this is the first year his Iowa team is still very much in the race more than two games into league play. Don't get me wrong, growing up in Indiana when Alford was in high school and then at IU, the guy was my basketball idol. But I wonder, is he right for Indiana? Maybe. Maybe not. And he may not come that easy anyway.
Home teams keep rocking...
Iowa put some serious separation between it's title hopes and the contenders with an impressive win over Michigan State on Tuesday and thanks to Wisconsin's gutsy win over Ohio State the next day. The home squads are 5-0 this week and the top six teams in the conference are 30-4 at home. If that trend continues, Iowa will take home its first title since 1979, and maybe it's first outright title since 1970. I don't know what's crazier though, the fact that the black and gold never won a title under Lute Olsen or Tom Davis or the fact that this is the first time since 1987 they'll even finish within a sniff (4 games) of the league crown?
An updated look at the crazy Big Ten standings…
We're getting more and more clarity at the top - well - sort of. Iowa has a firm one game lead at the top and with a win at pesky Minnesota on Saturday (the Gophers have turned it on at home of late and did take Iowa to triple overtime the last time they met) the Hawkeyes will be firmly planted in the driver's seat. Still, don't put it past someone else to make a late run and try to clog the top with a multi-team tie at 11-5 ...
For a reminder of what I predicted, take a look at one of the previous week's reviews. Here is how the teams stand today (in order, with actual OOC record, current B10 record – including home & away, and total record):
1 - Iowa – 11-3 / 9-3 (1st) / 6-0 at home, 3-3 away / 20-6 overall
2 - Wisconsin – 10-3 / 8-4 (6th) / 6-1 at home, 2-3 away / 18-7 overall
3 - Ohio State – 11-0 / 7-4 (5th) / 4-1 at home, 3-3 away / 18-4 overall
3 - Illinois – 14-0 / 7-4 (T-2nd) / 5-1 at home, 2-3 away / 21-4 overall
5 - Michigan – 10-1 / 7-5 (T-2nd) / 5-1 at home, 2-4 away / 17-6 overall
6 - Michigan State – 12-2 / 6-5 (T-2nd) / 4-0 at home, 2-5 away / 18-7 overall
7 - Indiana – 8-3 / 5-6 (7th) / 5-1 at home, 0-5 away / 13-9 overall
8 - Northwestern – 8-4 / 4-7 (8th) / 2-3 at home, 2-4 away / 12-11 overall
9 - Penn State – 8-3 / 4-8 (9th) / 2-5 at home, 2-3 away / 12-11 overall
10 - Minnesota – 9-2 / 3-8 (10th) / 2-3 at home, 1-5 away / 12-10 overall
11 - Purdue – 6-5 / 3-9 (11th) / 3-3 at home, 0-6 away / 9-14 overall
Things seem to be getting a little more predictable at the top, but then again, Saturday is another day. Every time I say that, we see another shocker. All four bottom feeders have beaten contenders and are still big factors in this race. The bigger mess might be sorting out the seeding for the Big Ten tourney which this year, more than any other, could be won by literally any team in the conference.
Here is what I expect the rest of the way (in order of finish, predicted B10 record - including losses (wins for the bottom teams), total record and postseason action):
1 - Iowa: 12-4 / 23-7 / NCAA berth – 3 seed / Loss at Illinois. Iowa caught Indiana at the right time on the road last week and handled MSU with relative ease. Minnesota is a trap game, but other than that, I see the first outright title for Iowa since before I was alive!
2 - Michigan State: 11-5 / 23-7 / NCAA berth – 4 seed / The Spartans finally get some home cooking and it couldn't possibly come at a better time. Indiana does not look like a scary road game any more, although with the way State plays away from the Breslin, any road game might be a horror show.
2 - Illinois: 11-5 / 25-5 / NCAA berth – 3 seed / Losses at Michigan State. Illinois is playing great defense right now and will be in the race until the bitter end.
2 - Ohio State: 11-5 / 22-5 / NCAA berth – 4 seed / Loss at Michigan State. OSU is a year ahead of schedule (based on what is coming in to C-bus talent-wise next season) and will be two gut-wrenching losses to MSU away from an outright title this season.
5 - Wisconsin: 10-6 / 20-9 / NCAA berth – 6 seed / Losses at Michigan State and Iowa. Wisconsin is trudging forward. Wisconsin will definitely factor into the race with trips to MSU and Iowa remaining.
6 - Michigan: 8-8 / 18-9 / NCAA berth – 9 seed / Losses at Michigan State, to Illinois and at Ohio State. Michigan is dinged up and aside from an amazing 20 minutes against Minnesota, has really struggled of late.
7 - Indiana: 7-9 / 15-12/ NIT berth / Losses at Illinois, to Michigan State and at Michigan. Will it be "win for Coach" or "who cares?" the rest of the way in Bloomington? My money is on the latter.
8 - Northwestern: 6-10 / 14-14 / No Postseason / Wins over Minnesota and at Purdue. Still capable of playing the spoiler role, needs to get to 7-9 to assure an NIT bid.
9 - Penn State: 5-12 (9th) / 13-14 / No Postseason / Win at Purdue. See also Northwestern.
10 - Minnesota: 4-12 / 13-14 / No Postseason / Win over Purdue. Minnesota has already sprung two home upsets, and might bite again.
11 - Purdue: 3-13 / 9-18 / No Postseason. I would not put it past Purdue to win a couple more because they are playing tough, inspired ball.
Wednesday, February 15, 2006
Weekly Bracketology Watch...
As we get closer and closer March Madness, the big picture gets clearer and clearer. The Big Ten is starting to get clarity. Iowa has a Big Ten title in sights and for certain will finish within four games of the top team for the first time since 1987. Yes, you read right, for the first time since 1987! If the Hawkeyes hold on to win the title outright, it'll be the first one in 36 years - older than your blogger! Even if they end in a tie, Iowa wins its first title since 1979. Anyway, I digress. Back to March Madness. Following is what Joe Lunardi has in store for our league as of Monday 2/13 followed by where I see the teams going.
- Ohio State is listed as a rising 2 seed, in the Minneapolis bracket (playing in Dayton), slated to face IUPUI. The 7 seed for round two there is Southern Illinois, the 10 seed is Marquette. The number one in the bracket is Texas. I see them as a 3 when all is said and done as I expect two more losses for the Bucks down the stretch (Wisconsin and Michigan State).
- Iowa is listed as a rising 3 seed, in the Oakland bracket (playing in Auburn Hills), slated to play Winthrop. The next round would be intriguing with 6 seed Oklahoma or 11 seed Kentucky lying in wait. The number one in the bracket is Memphis. I see them as a 2 or 3 when all is said and done. If Iowa wins the title outright (it will do so if the Hawks get past Minnesota this weekend) they will get a 2. If they tie for the title they will get a 3.
- Michigan State is listed as a falling 4 seed, in the Atlanta bracket (playing in Salt Lake City), slated to play UW-Milwaukee. The 5 seed is Georgetown. The number one in the bracket is Duke. MSU is an enigma. The Spartans could win out and somehow manage a tie for the Big Ten crown or they could go 4-1 or 3-2. In that case, the Big Ten Tourney will mean more to them in terms of seed than in recent memory. It hurts MSU that they have been pretty shaky on the road in 2006. I see them as a 4 or 5 seed regardless of how the season plays out.
- Illinois is listed as a falling 4 seed, in the Washington D.C. bracket (playing in Jacksonville), slated to play Western Kentucky. The 5 seed is George Washington. The number one in the Washington D.C. bracket is UConn. I see them as a 4 or 5 when all is said and done.
- Indiana is listed as a falling 7 seed, in the Washington D.C. bracket (playing in Greensboro), slated to play Miami-FLA. The 2 seed is Tennessee. The number one in the Washington D.C. bracket is UConn. With the recent hub-ub surrounding Mike Davis, Indiana may tank out and wind up barely making the NIT. If they get it together, the Hoosiers will sneak in as no better than a 10 seed, but right now, that's a stretch.
- Wisconsin is listed as a falling 7 seed, in the Atlanta bracket (playing in Salt Lake City), slated to play Arizona. The 2 seed is Gonzaga, with POTY candidate Adam "Dirt Mustache" Morrison. The number one in the bracket is Duke. I see Wisconsin as a very dangerous 7, 8 or 9 seed when Selection Sunday arrives. Think 2000 when the Badgers were a Final Four team as an 8 seed.
- Michigan is listed as a falling 9 seed, in the Oakland bracket (playing in Dallas), slated to play Creighton. The number one in the Oakland bracket is Memphis. The injury bug has bitten hard in Ann Arbor and the Wolverines need to win at least three of their last five in order to go dancing. That will be no easy task with the slate ahead of them and the injuries mounting. If Michigan slides in, it will be in the 11 spot. The maize and blue join IU as firmly on the bubble at the moment.
Check out the entire bracket breakdown, weekly, at http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology
Now, as a MSU grad and fan, I have to ask, What in the hell is wrong with Michigan State? No, I am not hitting any panic buttons and life wearing the Big Ten's largest target isn't easy. The Spartans have finished one game out of the title in three of the past four years and two games out to an unconscious Illini squad a year ago. Chances are they'll finish a game out this season as well. So, no, not all is lost in East Lansing, but as a fan, I sense some problems with this team that could render her a one and done come NCAA Tourney time.
Problem 1: This team misses Chris Hill, Alan Anderson and Kelvin Torbert. All had important roles last year, even while this year's stars carried that team to the Final Four. Most notably, they would bring much needed depth to the backcourt. But they also seemed to have the one thing that everyone criticized them for lacking - fire and desire. They didn't collectively have the talent of Ager or Brown but they scrapped and clawed and fought at all times. Sometimes I wonder how much Ager and Brown are willing to scrap when things are going against them.
Problem 2: Inability to play 40 good minutes on the road. MSU has 20 fantastic minutes on the road down to a science. But give me 40 solid minutes versus 20 great and 20 horrible and I'll give you more road wins. Case in point? At Michigan, at Minnesota, at Illinois and even at Iowa. In all of those games, the Spartans played 20 minutes of great basketball. The problem was they were horrid in the other 20 and they took Ls as a result. I'm not saying State would be four games lighter in the loss column had they done that in those games, but I bet they'd be two games lighter and right in the front of the pack.
Problem 3: The only player that seems to understand how to get the ball to Paul Davis is Drew Neitzel. Toss in Matt Trannon and you have, in my mind, the only guys who are as consistent on the road as at home. Ager is in a Chris Hill/Adam Ballinger like senior slump, particularly on the road. Brown just tries to do too much when Ager is off. It all hurts more than it helps.
The Solution: Playing at home. Four of the last five are at home where Michigan State is 109-7 over the past eight seasons, 56-4 against the Big Ten. MSU has also gone no worse than 4-1 over that same stretch in its last five games of the season and averages 8-2 in the last ten. With a 5-0 run to end this season, MSU would hit that 8-2 mark, finish 11-5 and maybe, maybe luck into a multi-team tie at the top. The bottom line? This team needs to find consistency in a hurry because as much as they could be scary in the tournament as a 4 or 5 or even 6 seed this year, they could as likely be one and done.
As we get closer and closer March Madness, the big picture gets clearer and clearer. The Big Ten is starting to get clarity. Iowa has a Big Ten title in sights and for certain will finish within four games of the top team for the first time since 1987. Yes, you read right, for the first time since 1987! If the Hawkeyes hold on to win the title outright, it'll be the first one in 36 years - older than your blogger! Even if they end in a tie, Iowa wins its first title since 1979. Anyway, I digress. Back to March Madness. Following is what Joe Lunardi has in store for our league as of Monday 2/13 followed by where I see the teams going.
- Ohio State is listed as a rising 2 seed, in the Minneapolis bracket (playing in Dayton), slated to face IUPUI. The 7 seed for round two there is Southern Illinois, the 10 seed is Marquette. The number one in the bracket is Texas. I see them as a 3 when all is said and done as I expect two more losses for the Bucks down the stretch (Wisconsin and Michigan State).
- Iowa is listed as a rising 3 seed, in the Oakland bracket (playing in Auburn Hills), slated to play Winthrop. The next round would be intriguing with 6 seed Oklahoma or 11 seed Kentucky lying in wait. The number one in the bracket is Memphis. I see them as a 2 or 3 when all is said and done. If Iowa wins the title outright (it will do so if the Hawks get past Minnesota this weekend) they will get a 2. If they tie for the title they will get a 3.
- Michigan State is listed as a falling 4 seed, in the Atlanta bracket (playing in Salt Lake City), slated to play UW-Milwaukee. The 5 seed is Georgetown. The number one in the bracket is Duke. MSU is an enigma. The Spartans could win out and somehow manage a tie for the Big Ten crown or they could go 4-1 or 3-2. In that case, the Big Ten Tourney will mean more to them in terms of seed than in recent memory. It hurts MSU that they have been pretty shaky on the road in 2006. I see them as a 4 or 5 seed regardless of how the season plays out.
- Illinois is listed as a falling 4 seed, in the Washington D.C. bracket (playing in Jacksonville), slated to play Western Kentucky. The 5 seed is George Washington. The number one in the Washington D.C. bracket is UConn. I see them as a 4 or 5 when all is said and done.
- Indiana is listed as a falling 7 seed, in the Washington D.C. bracket (playing in Greensboro), slated to play Miami-FLA. The 2 seed is Tennessee. The number one in the Washington D.C. bracket is UConn. With the recent hub-ub surrounding Mike Davis, Indiana may tank out and wind up barely making the NIT. If they get it together, the Hoosiers will sneak in as no better than a 10 seed, but right now, that's a stretch.
- Wisconsin is listed as a falling 7 seed, in the Atlanta bracket (playing in Salt Lake City), slated to play Arizona. The 2 seed is Gonzaga, with POTY candidate Adam "Dirt Mustache" Morrison. The number one in the bracket is Duke. I see Wisconsin as a very dangerous 7, 8 or 9 seed when Selection Sunday arrives. Think 2000 when the Badgers were a Final Four team as an 8 seed.
- Michigan is listed as a falling 9 seed, in the Oakland bracket (playing in Dallas), slated to play Creighton. The number one in the Oakland bracket is Memphis. The injury bug has bitten hard in Ann Arbor and the Wolverines need to win at least three of their last five in order to go dancing. That will be no easy task with the slate ahead of them and the injuries mounting. If Michigan slides in, it will be in the 11 spot. The maize and blue join IU as firmly on the bubble at the moment.
Check out the entire bracket breakdown, weekly, at http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology
Now, as a MSU grad and fan, I have to ask, What in the hell is wrong with Michigan State? No, I am not hitting any panic buttons and life wearing the Big Ten's largest target isn't easy. The Spartans have finished one game out of the title in three of the past four years and two games out to an unconscious Illini squad a year ago. Chances are they'll finish a game out this season as well. So, no, not all is lost in East Lansing, but as a fan, I sense some problems with this team that could render her a one and done come NCAA Tourney time.
Problem 1: This team misses Chris Hill, Alan Anderson and Kelvin Torbert. All had important roles last year, even while this year's stars carried that team to the Final Four. Most notably, they would bring much needed depth to the backcourt. But they also seemed to have the one thing that everyone criticized them for lacking - fire and desire. They didn't collectively have the talent of Ager or Brown but they scrapped and clawed and fought at all times. Sometimes I wonder how much Ager and Brown are willing to scrap when things are going against them.
Problem 2: Inability to play 40 good minutes on the road. MSU has 20 fantastic minutes on the road down to a science. But give me 40 solid minutes versus 20 great and 20 horrible and I'll give you more road wins. Case in point? At Michigan, at Minnesota, at Illinois and even at Iowa. In all of those games, the Spartans played 20 minutes of great basketball. The problem was they were horrid in the other 20 and they took Ls as a result. I'm not saying State would be four games lighter in the loss column had they done that in those games, but I bet they'd be two games lighter and right in the front of the pack.
Problem 3: The only player that seems to understand how to get the ball to Paul Davis is Drew Neitzel. Toss in Matt Trannon and you have, in my mind, the only guys who are as consistent on the road as at home. Ager is in a Chris Hill/Adam Ballinger like senior slump, particularly on the road. Brown just tries to do too much when Ager is off. It all hurts more than it helps.
The Solution: Playing at home. Four of the last five are at home where Michigan State is 109-7 over the past eight seasons, 56-4 against the Big Ten. MSU has also gone no worse than 4-1 over that same stretch in its last five games of the season and averages 8-2 in the last ten. With a 5-0 run to end this season, MSU would hit that 8-2 mark, finish 11-5 and maybe, maybe luck into a multi-team tie at the top. The bottom line? This team needs to find consistency in a hurry because as much as they could be scary in the tournament as a 4 or 5 or even 6 seed this year, they could as likely be one and done.
Monday, February 13, 2006
Monday Afternoon Point Guard...
Still only two, but ... Even though home teams managed only a 6-4 record last week (not including NU's win over IPFW) and are now 40-19 overall, things aren't easy on the road or at home these days. True, there were no major upsets by road teams (two of the four home losses were by Penn State) but Iowa did beat Indiana to snap the Hoosiers' 13-game league home win streak and it seems as if only the best will be safe at home. Only Michigan State and Iowa remain unbeaten at home so now it's looking more and more like the team that can keep winning the toughies on the road will be your champ.
Upset of the week ... Courtesy of the Penn State shocker over Illinois last week, I'll now reward an upset of the week. Thing is, three "lower-tier" teams got big wins over title contenders. Last place Minnesota put a smack down on a sluggish Michigan State squad and has painted them in a win out or else corner. Purdue beat Michigan, at least a mild upset although the maize and blue are suddenly very beaten and battered on the injury front. Northwestern got into the act as well, with a come from behind win over Iowa. The biggest of the three, however, was the Golden Gophers' win. MSU fans (I'm one of them) had this "W" in ink. Shame on us and kudos to the maroon and gold on the upset of the week.
Team of the week ... Has to be Ohio State. Just a half game out of first place, the Buckeyes took to the road and beat a good Michigan team and then rode that hot three point shooting to a sizeable win over Illinois. Ohio State controls its own destiny. Win out and do no worse than tie for the title with Iowa.
Conference race clarity ... Things appear to be getting a little clearer at the top these days. Michigan and Indiana are all but mathematically eliminated from the race. Five losses may get you into a four way tie for the title, but that means both teams need to win out. Not going to happen. That leaves Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan State.
Iowa has a tough row to hoe, with Michigan State, Penn State and Wisconsin at home and grueling roadies at Minnesota and Illinois.
Ohio State has three easy home games (Northwestern, Michigan and Purdue) and two, make it three (because Welsh-Ryan is no picnic) road games left - Wisconsin, Michigan State and Northwestern.
Wisconsin has two big home games with Ohio State and suddenly hot Minnesota, and three scary road trips to Evanston, East Lansing and Iowa City.
Illinois gets Northwestern, Indiana and Iowa at home and travels to the three "Ms" - Michigan, Michigan State and Minnesota.
Michigan State goes to Iowa and Indiana, and has four home dates left - Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois.
Since the Spartans play all of the main contenders the rest of the way, they are truly the team with destiny in their hands. Win out and it is a solo title. But that won't be easy and won't even likely happen. Ohio State and Iowa have a leg up on the other three with one less loss. However, both have two tough road games apiece. Basically, I really don't have a clue who will win this, though it does seem clearer with five teams in the running versus seven. I guess if I had a gun to my head, I'd say we're probably looking at Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois and Michigan State atop the conference at 11-5 when all is said and done.
This week's Game of the Week ... Iowa and Michigan State is almost an elimination game for Michigan State, even though they could win a share with five losses. That and the beat down that State put on Iowa in East Lansing makes this the game to watch. Ohio State at Wisconsin, Iowa at Minnesota, Michigan at Michigan State and Indiana at Illinois are close behind.
Where do they rank? I'd put the following teams in my Top 25: Iowa (10), Illinois (12), Ohio State (18), Michigan State (20), and Wisconsin (25).
How it will go down ... After this week, Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois will be tied with four losses apiece, and Michigan State will be right there with five. Michigan and Indiana will be two games out.
Still only two, but ... Even though home teams managed only a 6-4 record last week (not including NU's win over IPFW) and are now 40-19 overall, things aren't easy on the road or at home these days. True, there were no major upsets by road teams (two of the four home losses were by Penn State) but Iowa did beat Indiana to snap the Hoosiers' 13-game league home win streak and it seems as if only the best will be safe at home. Only Michigan State and Iowa remain unbeaten at home so now it's looking more and more like the team that can keep winning the toughies on the road will be your champ.
Upset of the week ... Courtesy of the Penn State shocker over Illinois last week, I'll now reward an upset of the week. Thing is, three "lower-tier" teams got big wins over title contenders. Last place Minnesota put a smack down on a sluggish Michigan State squad and has painted them in a win out or else corner. Purdue beat Michigan, at least a mild upset although the maize and blue are suddenly very beaten and battered on the injury front. Northwestern got into the act as well, with a come from behind win over Iowa. The biggest of the three, however, was the Golden Gophers' win. MSU fans (I'm one of them) had this "W" in ink. Shame on us and kudos to the maroon and gold on the upset of the week.
Team of the week ... Has to be Ohio State. Just a half game out of first place, the Buckeyes took to the road and beat a good Michigan team and then rode that hot three point shooting to a sizeable win over Illinois. Ohio State controls its own destiny. Win out and do no worse than tie for the title with Iowa.
Conference race clarity ... Things appear to be getting a little clearer at the top these days. Michigan and Indiana are all but mathematically eliminated from the race. Five losses may get you into a four way tie for the title, but that means both teams need to win out. Not going to happen. That leaves Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan State.
Iowa has a tough row to hoe, with Michigan State, Penn State and Wisconsin at home and grueling roadies at Minnesota and Illinois.
Ohio State has three easy home games (Northwestern, Michigan and Purdue) and two, make it three (because Welsh-Ryan is no picnic) road games left - Wisconsin, Michigan State and Northwestern.
Wisconsin has two big home games with Ohio State and suddenly hot Minnesota, and three scary road trips to Evanston, East Lansing and Iowa City.
Illinois gets Northwestern, Indiana and Iowa at home and travels to the three "Ms" - Michigan, Michigan State and Minnesota.
Michigan State goes to Iowa and Indiana, and has four home dates left - Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois.
Since the Spartans play all of the main contenders the rest of the way, they are truly the team with destiny in their hands. Win out and it is a solo title. But that won't be easy and won't even likely happen. Ohio State and Iowa have a leg up on the other three with one less loss. However, both have two tough road games apiece. Basically, I really don't have a clue who will win this, though it does seem clearer with five teams in the running versus seven. I guess if I had a gun to my head, I'd say we're probably looking at Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois and Michigan State atop the conference at 11-5 when all is said and done.
This week's Game of the Week ... Iowa and Michigan State is almost an elimination game for Michigan State, even though they could win a share with five losses. That and the beat down that State put on Iowa in East Lansing makes this the game to watch. Ohio State at Wisconsin, Iowa at Minnesota, Michigan at Michigan State and Indiana at Illinois are close behind.
Where do they rank? I'd put the following teams in my Top 25: Iowa (10), Illinois (12), Ohio State (18), Michigan State (20), and Wisconsin (25).
How it will go down ... After this week, Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois will be tied with four losses apiece, and Michigan State will be right there with five. Michigan and Indiana will be two games out.
Thursday, February 09, 2006
An updated look at the crazy Big Ten standings …
As if things weren't interesting enough, Iowa lost at Northwestern last night and now there are five teams tied with three losses apiece and two sitting one game back. Home teams have hit more bumps of late, although they are off to a 3-1 start this week (now 37-16 overall). Holding serve at home is still the key. If you can go 8-0 at home and 4-4 on the road, you'll win the conference. Teams that still have that shot are Iowa, Michigan State, Michigan, and Indiana (though they'd need to win their last 4 road games)
For a reminder of what I predicted, take a look at one of the previous week's reviews. Here is how the teams stand today (in order, with actual OOC record, current B10 record – including home & away, and total record):
Iowa – 11-3 / 7-3 (1st) / 5-0 at home, 2-3 away / 18-6 overall
Illinois – 14-0 / 6-3 (T-2nd) / 4-1 at home, 2-2 away / 20-3 overall
Michigan State – 12-2 / 6-3 (T-2nd) / 4-0 at home, 2-3 away / 18-5 overall
Michigan – 10-1 / 6-3 (T-2nd) / 4-0 at home, 2-3 away / 16-4 overall
Ohio State – 11-0 / 5-3 (5th) / 3-1 at home, 2-2 away / 16-3 overall
Wisconsin – 10-3 / 6-4 (6th) / 5-1 at home, 1-3 away / 16-7 overall
Indiana – 8-3 / 5-4 (7th) / 5-0 at home, 0-4 away / 13-7 overall
Northwestern – 7-4 / 4-6 (8th) / 2-3 at home, 2-3 away / 11-10 overall
Penn State – 8-3 / 3-7 (9th) / 1-4 at home, 2-3 away / 11-10 overall
Minnesota – 9-2 / 2-7 (10th) / 1-3 at home, 1-4 away / 11-9 overall
Purdue – 6-5 / 2-9 (11th) / 2-3 at home, 0-6 away / 8-14 overall
Just when I think I have my finger on the pulse of this league, Illinois loses at home to Penn State, Iowa loses at Northwestern (okay, so they have done that the past three trips to Evanston so not a HUGE surprise), Wisconsin loses at Purdue then hammers Indiana. Given the mess, or like I prefer, excitement of the race, here is what I expect the rest of the way (in order of finish, predicted B10 record - including losses (wins for the bottom teams), total record and postseason action):
Michigan State – 12-4 (1st) / 24-6 / NCAA berth – 2 seed / Loss at Iowa. The only change here is who the remaining road loss comes to. Indiana is fading fast, and Iowa will have payback in mind. The V-Day clash between Iowa and MSU will go a long way in determining this race.
Illinois – 11-5 (T-2nd) / 25-5 / NCAA berth – 3 seed / Losses at Ohio State and Michigan State. Illinois suffered a tough loss at home to Penn State, meaning they need to go 5-3 on the road to get back that home loss. That will be tough with trips to Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State remaining.
Iowa – 11-5 (T-2nd) / 22-8 / NCAA berth – 4 seed / Losses at Indiana and Illinois. It all depends on whether or not Iowa does its usual late season collapse after a somewhat predictable loss at Northwestern. The MSU game is HUGE for the Hawkeyes.
Wisconsin – 10-6 (T-4th) / 20-9 / NCAA berth – 6 seed / Losses at Michigan State and Iowa. Wisconsin is trudging forward. Despite a somewhat shocking loss to Purdue, the Badgers crushed Indiana to get back on track. They will factor into the race for sure.
Michigan – 10-6 (T-4th) / 20-7 / NCAA berth – 7 seed / Losses at Michigan State, to Illinois and at Ohio State. Michigan is in good shape with the home wins, but still has some tough trips to make and if the Iowa game in any indication of how it will go on the road, watch out.
Ohio State – 10-6 (T-4th) / 21-6 / NCAA berth – 6 seed / Losses at Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State. OSU falls in the "won't do worse but could do better" category. Already has had some road success albeit against the lower tier teams in the league.
Indiana – 9-7 (7th) / 17-10 / NCAA berth – 9 seed / Losses at Illinois, to Michigan State and at Michigan. IU is fading fast, with two straight losses and three of the last four.
Northwestern – 6-10 (8th) / 14-14 / No Postseason / Wins over Minnesota and at Purdue. "A team fully capable of being a spolier." I said that last week and low and behold, it came true!
Penn State – 4-12 (9th) / 12-15 / No Postseason / Win at Purdue. See also Northwestern.
Minnesota – 3-13 (10th) / 12-15 / No Postseason / Win over Purdue. Minnesota has already sprung a home upset, and might bite again.
Purdue – 2-14 (11th) / 8-19 / No Postseason. Already got one surprising win, could catch Michigan, who they played tough in the first matchup of the season. It all depends on fatigue with a squad that carries only seven scholarship players.
And if you think the race is fun, wait until eveyone converges on Indy for the tourney. I think any of 6-8 teams could legitimately get hot enough to win it this year.
As if things weren't interesting enough, Iowa lost at Northwestern last night and now there are five teams tied with three losses apiece and two sitting one game back. Home teams have hit more bumps of late, although they are off to a 3-1 start this week (now 37-16 overall). Holding serve at home is still the key. If you can go 8-0 at home and 4-4 on the road, you'll win the conference. Teams that still have that shot are Iowa, Michigan State, Michigan, and Indiana (though they'd need to win their last 4 road games)
For a reminder of what I predicted, take a look at one of the previous week's reviews. Here is how the teams stand today (in order, with actual OOC record, current B10 record – including home & away, and total record):
Iowa – 11-3 / 7-3 (1st) / 5-0 at home, 2-3 away / 18-6 overall
Illinois – 14-0 / 6-3 (T-2nd) / 4-1 at home, 2-2 away / 20-3 overall
Michigan State – 12-2 / 6-3 (T-2nd) / 4-0 at home, 2-3 away / 18-5 overall
Michigan – 10-1 / 6-3 (T-2nd) / 4-0 at home, 2-3 away / 16-4 overall
Ohio State – 11-0 / 5-3 (5th) / 3-1 at home, 2-2 away / 16-3 overall
Wisconsin – 10-3 / 6-4 (6th) / 5-1 at home, 1-3 away / 16-7 overall
Indiana – 8-3 / 5-4 (7th) / 5-0 at home, 0-4 away / 13-7 overall
Northwestern – 7-4 / 4-6 (8th) / 2-3 at home, 2-3 away / 11-10 overall
Penn State – 8-3 / 3-7 (9th) / 1-4 at home, 2-3 away / 11-10 overall
Minnesota – 9-2 / 2-7 (10th) / 1-3 at home, 1-4 away / 11-9 overall
Purdue – 6-5 / 2-9 (11th) / 2-3 at home, 0-6 away / 8-14 overall
Just when I think I have my finger on the pulse of this league, Illinois loses at home to Penn State, Iowa loses at Northwestern (okay, so they have done that the past three trips to Evanston so not a HUGE surprise), Wisconsin loses at Purdue then hammers Indiana. Given the mess, or like I prefer, excitement of the race, here is what I expect the rest of the way (in order of finish, predicted B10 record - including losses (wins for the bottom teams), total record and postseason action):
Michigan State – 12-4 (1st) / 24-6 / NCAA berth – 2 seed / Loss at Iowa. The only change here is who the remaining road loss comes to. Indiana is fading fast, and Iowa will have payback in mind. The V-Day clash between Iowa and MSU will go a long way in determining this race.
Illinois – 11-5 (T-2nd) / 25-5 / NCAA berth – 3 seed / Losses at Ohio State and Michigan State. Illinois suffered a tough loss at home to Penn State, meaning they need to go 5-3 on the road to get back that home loss. That will be tough with trips to Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State remaining.
Iowa – 11-5 (T-2nd) / 22-8 / NCAA berth – 4 seed / Losses at Indiana and Illinois. It all depends on whether or not Iowa does its usual late season collapse after a somewhat predictable loss at Northwestern. The MSU game is HUGE for the Hawkeyes.
Wisconsin – 10-6 (T-4th) / 20-9 / NCAA berth – 6 seed / Losses at Michigan State and Iowa. Wisconsin is trudging forward. Despite a somewhat shocking loss to Purdue, the Badgers crushed Indiana to get back on track. They will factor into the race for sure.
Michigan – 10-6 (T-4th) / 20-7 / NCAA berth – 7 seed / Losses at Michigan State, to Illinois and at Ohio State. Michigan is in good shape with the home wins, but still has some tough trips to make and if the Iowa game in any indication of how it will go on the road, watch out.
Ohio State – 10-6 (T-4th) / 21-6 / NCAA berth – 6 seed / Losses at Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State. OSU falls in the "won't do worse but could do better" category. Already has had some road success albeit against the lower tier teams in the league.
Indiana – 9-7 (7th) / 17-10 / NCAA berth – 9 seed / Losses at Illinois, to Michigan State and at Michigan. IU is fading fast, with two straight losses and three of the last four.
Northwestern – 6-10 (8th) / 14-14 / No Postseason / Wins over Minnesota and at Purdue. "A team fully capable of being a spolier." I said that last week and low and behold, it came true!
Penn State – 4-12 (9th) / 12-15 / No Postseason / Win at Purdue. See also Northwestern.
Minnesota – 3-13 (10th) / 12-15 / No Postseason / Win over Purdue. Minnesota has already sprung a home upset, and might bite again.
Purdue – 2-14 (11th) / 8-19 / No Postseason. Already got one surprising win, could catch Michigan, who they played tough in the first matchup of the season. It all depends on fatigue with a squad that carries only seven scholarship players.
And if you think the race is fun, wait until eveyone converges on Indy for the tourney. I think any of 6-8 teams could legitimately get hot enough to win it this year.
Wednesday, February 08, 2006
Weekly Bracketology Watch ...
As we get closer and closer to the madness that is college hoops in March, the bracket predicting geeks (that's a compliment by the way!) get better and better at deciphering who will go where, how they'll be seeded and who they might match up with in the second round. Here is how ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi has them placed this week, followed by what I think (seed-wise) seems logical:
- Illinois is listed as a falling 2 seed, in the Minneapolis bracket (playing in Dayton), slated to face Birmingham Southern. The 7 seed for round two there is Creighton. The number one in the bracket is Memphis. I see them as a 2 or 3 when all is said and done, despite the gut-wrenching loss to Penn State at home.
- Michigan State is listed as a rising 2 seed, in the Atlanta bracket (playing in Auburn Hills), slated to play IUPUI. The 7 seed would give us a nice little coach-tutor matchup between Izzo and Tom Crean's Marquette squad. The number one in the bracket is Duke. I see them as a 2 or 3 when all is said and done.
- Iowa is listed as a steady 4 seed, in the Oakland bracket (playing in Auburn Hills), slated to play UW-Milwaukee. The 5 seed is defending champ North Carolina. The number one in the Oakland bracket is Texas. I see them as a 4 or 5 when all is said and done.
- Ohio State is listed as a falling 6 seed, in the Washington D.C. bracket (playing in Jacksonville), slated to play Bucknell. The 3 seed is Florida. The number one in the Washington D.C. bracket is UConn. I see them as a 5 or 6 when all is said and done.
- Indiana is listed as a falling 6 seed, in the Oakland bracket (playing in Jacksonville), slated to play San Diego State. The 3 seed is LSU. The number one in the Oakland bracket is Texas. I see them as an 8 or 9 when all is said and done.
- Wisconsin is listed as a falling 7 seed, in the Oakland bracket (playing in Philly), slated to play Miami-FLA. The 2 seed is Villanova, reigning champ in the city of brotherly love. The number one in the Oakland bracket is Texas. I see them as a 10 when all is said and done.
- Michigan is listed as a falling 7 seed, the Washington D.C. bracket (playing in Salt Lake City), slated to play Colorado. The 2 seed is Gonzagaa. The number one in the Washington D.C. bracket is UConn. I see them as a 7 or 8 when all is said and done.
Check out the entire bracket breakdown, weekly, at http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology
As we get closer and closer to the madness that is college hoops in March, the bracket predicting geeks (that's a compliment by the way!) get better and better at deciphering who will go where, how they'll be seeded and who they might match up with in the second round. Here is how ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi has them placed this week, followed by what I think (seed-wise) seems logical:
- Illinois is listed as a falling 2 seed, in the Minneapolis bracket (playing in Dayton), slated to face Birmingham Southern. The 7 seed for round two there is Creighton. The number one in the bracket is Memphis. I see them as a 2 or 3 when all is said and done, despite the gut-wrenching loss to Penn State at home.
- Michigan State is listed as a rising 2 seed, in the Atlanta bracket (playing in Auburn Hills), slated to play IUPUI. The 7 seed would give us a nice little coach-tutor matchup between Izzo and Tom Crean's Marquette squad. The number one in the bracket is Duke. I see them as a 2 or 3 when all is said and done.
- Iowa is listed as a steady 4 seed, in the Oakland bracket (playing in Auburn Hills), slated to play UW-Milwaukee. The 5 seed is defending champ North Carolina. The number one in the Oakland bracket is Texas. I see them as a 4 or 5 when all is said and done.
- Ohio State is listed as a falling 6 seed, in the Washington D.C. bracket (playing in Jacksonville), slated to play Bucknell. The 3 seed is Florida. The number one in the Washington D.C. bracket is UConn. I see them as a 5 or 6 when all is said and done.
- Indiana is listed as a falling 6 seed, in the Oakland bracket (playing in Jacksonville), slated to play San Diego State. The 3 seed is LSU. The number one in the Oakland bracket is Texas. I see them as an 8 or 9 when all is said and done.
- Wisconsin is listed as a falling 7 seed, in the Oakland bracket (playing in Philly), slated to play Miami-FLA. The 2 seed is Villanova, reigning champ in the city of brotherly love. The number one in the Oakland bracket is Texas. I see them as a 10 when all is said and done.
- Michigan is listed as a falling 7 seed, the Washington D.C. bracket (playing in Salt Lake City), slated to play Colorado. The 2 seed is Gonzagaa. The number one in the Washington D.C. bracket is UConn. I see them as a 7 or 8 when all is said and done.
Check out the entire bracket breakdown, weekly, at http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology
Monday, February 06, 2006
Monday Afternoon Point Guard...
Not so sweet ... Ouch. Home sweet home wasn't the case in the Big Ten last week. Home teams had their first losing record in recent memory, going 4-5 over the stretch (now 34-15 overall). That included Illinois, yes, the same Illini team riding a 33-game home winning streak, losing to Penn State at home. That same Illinois team beat Wisconsin in Madison earlier in the week, handing the Badgers only their second home conference loss under Bo Ryan. It's been a real rollercoaster ride thus far and it only looks to get more interesting. Case in point? Purdue beat Wisconsin to go with the Nittany Lions' shocker.
Team of the week ... Hands down, the team of the week was Iowa. The Hawkeyes got a cherished road win (albeit at cellar dweller Purdue) and then hammered the Wolverines at home. Since the embarrassing loss at Michigan State, Iowa has rolled to four-straight victories and sole possession of first place at the halfway mark of the season.
What's up with Wisconsin? Hmm, maybe that loss at home to North Dakota State wasn't an aberration. Perhaps that raised the red flag on Wisconsin's season. Since then the Badgers have lost on the road to Michigan (no shame in that), gotten flogged at home by the Illini and the kicker - beaten pretty soundly on the road by the most under-manned, hard-luck team in the league (Purdue). If teams are judged on their last ten games, Bo Ryan needs to inject some life or his Badgers will be hosting an NIT game rather than taking part in the Big Dance.
Fuzzy conference race ... For the past two weeks, I have been taking a look at what's left of the Big Ten season and giving an updated take on who will wind up where. The first shot said Wisconsin would share the title. That's not going to happen. Last week I pegged the Illini for a slot atop the league. Umm, maybe not. Be careful Iowa, you know you'll be my next team to contend for a shot at the top!
This week's Game of the Week ... Every game from here on out is huge as it appears no one is safe, whether at home or on the road. Indiana travels to Madison early in the week for an elimination game (the loser is officially, in my book, out of the race). Iowa has a tricky trip to Evanston where the Wildcats are due to sting someone. Ohio State travels to Michigan on Thursday in another key game in the race. Iowa has to go to Indiana on Saturday. See what I mean? But the game of the week is Illinois at Ohio State. Will the Buckeyes relive the magic of last season's late season upset win over the Illini? Can Illinois get that tough home loss back with a tough road win? Stay tuned.
Where do they rank? I'd put the following teams in my Top 25: Illinois (12), Michigan State (14), Iowa (15), Indiana (19), Ohio State (20), and Michigan (25).
How it will go down ... After this week, there will be another logjam at the top of the conference. Michigan State, Michigan and Iowa will sit at the top, followed by the Illini, Buckeyes, Hoosiers and Badgers one game behind.
Not so sweet ... Ouch. Home sweet home wasn't the case in the Big Ten last week. Home teams had their first losing record in recent memory, going 4-5 over the stretch (now 34-15 overall). That included Illinois, yes, the same Illini team riding a 33-game home winning streak, losing to Penn State at home. That same Illinois team beat Wisconsin in Madison earlier in the week, handing the Badgers only their second home conference loss under Bo Ryan. It's been a real rollercoaster ride thus far and it only looks to get more interesting. Case in point? Purdue beat Wisconsin to go with the Nittany Lions' shocker.
Team of the week ... Hands down, the team of the week was Iowa. The Hawkeyes got a cherished road win (albeit at cellar dweller Purdue) and then hammered the Wolverines at home. Since the embarrassing loss at Michigan State, Iowa has rolled to four-straight victories and sole possession of first place at the halfway mark of the season.
What's up with Wisconsin? Hmm, maybe that loss at home to North Dakota State wasn't an aberration. Perhaps that raised the red flag on Wisconsin's season. Since then the Badgers have lost on the road to Michigan (no shame in that), gotten flogged at home by the Illini and the kicker - beaten pretty soundly on the road by the most under-manned, hard-luck team in the league (Purdue). If teams are judged on their last ten games, Bo Ryan needs to inject some life or his Badgers will be hosting an NIT game rather than taking part in the Big Dance.
Fuzzy conference race ... For the past two weeks, I have been taking a look at what's left of the Big Ten season and giving an updated take on who will wind up where. The first shot said Wisconsin would share the title. That's not going to happen. Last week I pegged the Illini for a slot atop the league. Umm, maybe not. Be careful Iowa, you know you'll be my next team to contend for a shot at the top!
This week's Game of the Week ... Every game from here on out is huge as it appears no one is safe, whether at home or on the road. Indiana travels to Madison early in the week for an elimination game (the loser is officially, in my book, out of the race). Iowa has a tricky trip to Evanston where the Wildcats are due to sting someone. Ohio State travels to Michigan on Thursday in another key game in the race. Iowa has to go to Indiana on Saturday. See what I mean? But the game of the week is Illinois at Ohio State. Will the Buckeyes relive the magic of last season's late season upset win over the Illini? Can Illinois get that tough home loss back with a tough road win? Stay tuned.
Where do they rank? I'd put the following teams in my Top 25: Illinois (12), Michigan State (14), Iowa (15), Indiana (19), Ohio State (20), and Michigan (25).
How it will go down ... After this week, there will be another logjam at the top of the conference. Michigan State, Michigan and Iowa will sit at the top, followed by the Illini, Buckeyes, Hoosiers and Badgers one game behind.
Thursday, February 02, 2006
A weekly review of where things stand …
Okay, we’re 7-8 games into the Big Ten race and things are starting to pan out a little. I.E. the contenders are separating from the pretenders, the early surprises are hanging on or have fizzled. There is certainly a lot of basketball left to play and things change by the week, but I think we're even clearer on who is in the race and who isn't after one more week of play (remember I first did this re-analysis last week). Winning on the road is still tough, although three of four teams have done so this week. Home teams stand at 31-14 in conference play, the top seven are a combined 26-2.
Here again is a reminder of what I predicted, and an adjusted look as enter the second half of Big Ten play, followed by how I think it will play out the rest of the season. What I predicted (in order of finish, with OOC record, B10 record, total record and postseason action:
Michigan State – 12-2 / 13-3 (T-1st) / 25-5 / NCAA Berth
Illinois – 12-2 / 13-3 (T-1st) / 25-5 / NCAA Berth
Wisconsin – 11-2 / 12-4 (3rd) / 23-6 / NCAA Berth
Iowa – 12-2 / 10-6 (4th) / 22-8 / NCAA Berth
Ohio State – 9-2 / 9-7 (T-5th) / 18-9 / NCAA Berth
Indiana – 8-3 / 9-7 (T-5th) / 17-10 / NCAA Berth
Minnesota – 9-2 / 8-8 (7th) / 17-10 / NIT Berth
Michigan – 9-2 / 7-9 (8th) / 16-11 / NIT Berth
Purdue – 8-3 / 3-13 (T-9th) / 11-16
Northwestern – 7-5 / 3-13 (T-9th) / 10-18
Penn State – 7-4 / 1-15 (11th) / 8-19
Here is how the teams stand today (in order, with actual OOC record, current B10 record – including home & away, and total record):
Illinois – 14-0 / 6-2 (T-1st) / 4-0 at home, 2-2 away / 20-2 overall
Michigan – 10-1 / 6-2 (T-1st) / 4-0 at home, 2-2 away / 16-3 overall
Iowa – 11-3 / 6-2 (T-1st) / 4-0 at home, 2-2 away / 17-5 overall
Wisconsin – 10-3 / 5-3 (T-4th) / 4-1 at home, 1-2 away / 15-6 overall
Indiana – 8-2 / 5-3 (T-4th) / 5-0 at home, 0-3 away / 13-5 overall
Michigan State – 12-2 / 4-3 (T-6th) / 3-0 at home, 1-3 away / 16-5 overall
Ohio State – 11-0 / 4-3 (T-6th) / 2-1 at home, 2-2 away / 15-3 overall
Northwestern – 7-4 / 3-5 (8th) / 1-2 at home, 2-3 away / 10-9 overall
Penn State – 8-3 / 2-6 (9th) / 1-3 at home, 1-3 away / 10-9 overall
Minnesota – 9-2 / 1-6 (10th) / 1-3 at home, 0-3 away / 10-8 overall
Purdue – 6-5 / 1-8 (11th) / 1-3 at home, 0-5 away / 7-13 overall
Of course I know more with every game that goes by, but the past week has really told me something about a few teams in particular, so, here is what I expect the rest of the way (in order of finish, predicted B10 record - including losses (wins for the bottom teams), total record and postseason action):
Illinois – 12-4 (T-1st) / 26-4 / NCAA berth – 2 seed / Losses at Ohio State and Michigan State. Illinois just quietly trudges along. The Illini still have several tough road games left and may be too reliant on Brown and Augustine to win it this year.
Michigan State – 12-4 (T-1st) / 24-6 / NCAA berth – 3 seed / Loss at Indiana. I know, you're thinking "they're 4-3 in conference right now, no way they go 8-1 to end the regular season" but to that I say, look at recent history. State plays its best ball in February and March and still has five games against top contenders - at the Breslin Center.
Wisconsin – 11-5 (T-3rd) / 21-8 / NCAA berth – 5 seed / Losses at Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa. The recent loss of two bench players has hurt more than I thought. Still, never count out a Bo Ryan team because when you do, they'll beat you.
Iowa – 11-5 (T-3rd) / 22-8 / NCAA berth – 5 seed / Losses at Indiana, to Michigan State and at Illinois. It all depends on whether or not Iowa does its usual late season collapse.
Michigan – 10-6 (T-5th) / 20-7 / NCAA berth – 6 seed / Losses at Iowa, at Michigan State, to Illinois and at Ohio State. Michigan is a team that could do better but won't do much worse than this. There are still several tough road games and it will be hard to get up for games like they did for MSU.
Ohio State – 10-6 (T-5th) / 21-6 / NCAA berth – 6 seed / Losses at Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State. Another that falls in the won't do worse but could do better category. Already has had some road success albeit against the lower tier teams in the league.
Indiana – 10-6 (T-5th) / 18-9 / NCAA berth – 7 seed / Losses at Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan and an OOC loss to UConn. IU could win this thing, but will need better road play - especially after the debacle in Minneapolis - and with five of nine away from Bloomington, look out.
Northwestern – 5-11 (8th) / 13-15 / No Postseason / Wins over Minnesota and at Purdue. A team fully capable of being a spolier.
Penn State – 4-12 (9th) / 12-15 / No Postseason / Wins over Minnesota and at Purdue. See also Northwestern.
Minnesota – 2-14 (10th) / 11-16 / No Postseason / Win over Purdue – Coach Monson may get fired. Minnesota has already sprung a home upset, and might bite again.
Purdue – 1-15 (11th) / 7-20 / No Postseason. Tough first year for Coach Painter, but he will have this program back on track in a few years and this team is playing tough even though they are way out-manned.
Okay, we’re 7-8 games into the Big Ten race and things are starting to pan out a little. I.E. the contenders are separating from the pretenders, the early surprises are hanging on or have fizzled. There is certainly a lot of basketball left to play and things change by the week, but I think we're even clearer on who is in the race and who isn't after one more week of play (remember I first did this re-analysis last week). Winning on the road is still tough, although three of four teams have done so this week. Home teams stand at 31-14 in conference play, the top seven are a combined 26-2.
Here again is a reminder of what I predicted, and an adjusted look as enter the second half of Big Ten play, followed by how I think it will play out the rest of the season. What I predicted (in order of finish, with OOC record, B10 record, total record and postseason action:
Michigan State – 12-2 / 13-3 (T-1st) / 25-5 / NCAA Berth
Illinois – 12-2 / 13-3 (T-1st) / 25-5 / NCAA Berth
Wisconsin – 11-2 / 12-4 (3rd) / 23-6 / NCAA Berth
Iowa – 12-2 / 10-6 (4th) / 22-8 / NCAA Berth
Ohio State – 9-2 / 9-7 (T-5th) / 18-9 / NCAA Berth
Indiana – 8-3 / 9-7 (T-5th) / 17-10 / NCAA Berth
Minnesota – 9-2 / 8-8 (7th) / 17-10 / NIT Berth
Michigan – 9-2 / 7-9 (8th) / 16-11 / NIT Berth
Purdue – 8-3 / 3-13 (T-9th) / 11-16
Northwestern – 7-5 / 3-13 (T-9th) / 10-18
Penn State – 7-4 / 1-15 (11th) / 8-19
Here is how the teams stand today (in order, with actual OOC record, current B10 record – including home & away, and total record):
Illinois – 14-0 / 6-2 (T-1st) / 4-0 at home, 2-2 away / 20-2 overall
Michigan – 10-1 / 6-2 (T-1st) / 4-0 at home, 2-2 away / 16-3 overall
Iowa – 11-3 / 6-2 (T-1st) / 4-0 at home, 2-2 away / 17-5 overall
Wisconsin – 10-3 / 5-3 (T-4th) / 4-1 at home, 1-2 away / 15-6 overall
Indiana – 8-2 / 5-3 (T-4th) / 5-0 at home, 0-3 away / 13-5 overall
Michigan State – 12-2 / 4-3 (T-6th) / 3-0 at home, 1-3 away / 16-5 overall
Ohio State – 11-0 / 4-3 (T-6th) / 2-1 at home, 2-2 away / 15-3 overall
Northwestern – 7-4 / 3-5 (8th) / 1-2 at home, 2-3 away / 10-9 overall
Penn State – 8-3 / 2-6 (9th) / 1-3 at home, 1-3 away / 10-9 overall
Minnesota – 9-2 / 1-6 (10th) / 1-3 at home, 0-3 away / 10-8 overall
Purdue – 6-5 / 1-8 (11th) / 1-3 at home, 0-5 away / 7-13 overall
Of course I know more with every game that goes by, but the past week has really told me something about a few teams in particular, so, here is what I expect the rest of the way (in order of finish, predicted B10 record - including losses (wins for the bottom teams), total record and postseason action):
Illinois – 12-4 (T-1st) / 26-4 / NCAA berth – 2 seed / Losses at Ohio State and Michigan State. Illinois just quietly trudges along. The Illini still have several tough road games left and may be too reliant on Brown and Augustine to win it this year.
Michigan State – 12-4 (T-1st) / 24-6 / NCAA berth – 3 seed / Loss at Indiana. I know, you're thinking "they're 4-3 in conference right now, no way they go 8-1 to end the regular season" but to that I say, look at recent history. State plays its best ball in February and March and still has five games against top contenders - at the Breslin Center.
Wisconsin – 11-5 (T-3rd) / 21-8 / NCAA berth – 5 seed / Losses at Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa. The recent loss of two bench players has hurt more than I thought. Still, never count out a Bo Ryan team because when you do, they'll beat you.
Iowa – 11-5 (T-3rd) / 22-8 / NCAA berth – 5 seed / Losses at Indiana, to Michigan State and at Illinois. It all depends on whether or not Iowa does its usual late season collapse.
Michigan – 10-6 (T-5th) / 20-7 / NCAA berth – 6 seed / Losses at Iowa, at Michigan State, to Illinois and at Ohio State. Michigan is a team that could do better but won't do much worse than this. There are still several tough road games and it will be hard to get up for games like they did for MSU.
Ohio State – 10-6 (T-5th) / 21-6 / NCAA berth – 6 seed / Losses at Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State. Another that falls in the won't do worse but could do better category. Already has had some road success albeit against the lower tier teams in the league.
Indiana – 10-6 (T-5th) / 18-9 / NCAA berth – 7 seed / Losses at Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan and an OOC loss to UConn. IU could win this thing, but will need better road play - especially after the debacle in Minneapolis - and with five of nine away from Bloomington, look out.
Northwestern – 5-11 (8th) / 13-15 / No Postseason / Wins over Minnesota and at Purdue. A team fully capable of being a spolier.
Penn State – 4-12 (9th) / 12-15 / No Postseason / Wins over Minnesota and at Purdue. See also Northwestern.
Minnesota – 2-14 (10th) / 11-16 / No Postseason / Win over Purdue – Coach Monson may get fired. Minnesota has already sprung a home upset, and might bite again.
Purdue – 1-15 (11th) / 7-20 / No Postseason. Tough first year for Coach Painter, but he will have this program back on track in a few years and this team is playing tough even though they are way out-manned.
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