Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Weekly Bracketology Watch ...
The Big Ten is getting even more love this week from EPSN.com's Joe Lunardi. This week's brackets - keep in mind that we are 40 days from Selection Sunday - have seven teams in, and none of them close to the dreaded bubble. After Michigan's showing last week, the only way the Big Ten doesn't get seven is if a team like Indiana gasses out and misses the mark. Here is how Lunardi has them placed this week, followed by what I think (seed-wise) seems logical:



- Illinois is listed as a rising 1 seed, in the Oakland bracket. I see them as a 2 or 3 when all is said and done.

- Michigan State is listed as a falling 3 seed, in the Minneapolis bracket. I see them as a 2 or 3 when all is said and done.

- Ohio State is listed as a steady 4 seed, in the Atlanta bracket. I see them as a 5 or 6 when all is said and done.

- Iowa is listed as a rising 4 seed, in the Washington D.C. bracket. I see them as a 5 or 6 when all is said and done.

- Indiana is listed as a falling 5 seed, in the Minneapolis bracket. I see them as a 6 or 7 at this point, with room to move up to as good as a 5 or drop to as low as a 10.

- Wisconsin is listed as a falling 6 seed, in the Washington D.C. bracket. I see them as a 4 or 5 when all is said and done.

- Michigan is listed as a rising 6 seed in the Atlanta bracket. I see them as a 6 or 7 at this point, with room to move up to as good as a 4 or drop as low as a 9.

Lunardi has his "ones" as Duke, Memphis, UConn and Illinois. I'd take a bracket with Memphis as a Big Ten team. C-USA is weaker than weak this season.

Check out the entire bracket breakdown, weekly, at http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Monday, January 30, 2006

Monday Morning Point Guard ...

A near perfect week ... Home teams continued to rule the roost in the Big Ten last week. Only cellar-dweller Purdue took one on the chin in their friendly confines - an OT loss to Northwestern. Even winless Minnesota pounded a league leader. That makes the home team 30-10 as we near the halfway point of the season. The top seven teams in the Big Ten are a combined 25-1 at home, the lone loss was OSU's double overtime heartbreaker to the Spartans. Conversely, those same teams are 7-16 on the road. The best road record belongs to Ohio State at 2-2, but with a home loss already, that means the Buckeyes are going to need to go 5-3 on the road and win out at home to get to the 12-4 record that I think wins the conference this winter.

Team of the week ... An argument could be made for either Michigan or Iowa as the team of the week. Both played two ranked teams and won, although there was the luxury of the homecourt, which brings along with it the benefit of good calls or no calls by the officials. Officiating aside, both the Wolverines and Hawkeyes were strong in huge home wins and consequently are tied atop the standings (with Illinois and Wisconsin who play each other on Tuesday).

My Malox moments ... My own alma mater made me raid the medicine cabinet for the Malox this week. First it was the tough loss at Michigan, a rarity these days to feel the same pain I feel every year on the football side of the equation! Then it was the battle with Penn State. Yes, the battle. I wrote a few weeks ago that Penn State isn't the same roll over and play dead squad we've seen in the past. Undersized or not, this team can shoot and play a solid zone defense and mark my words, will pick off a contender at home and on the road this season. Playing without Davis and more or less Ager (who was 3 for 19 shooting) gave MSU fans a glimpse of the growing pains that could occur next year.

Seven in ... I was on the fence about it last week, but make no bones about it, the Big Ten will score seven in the Big Dance this year and will get at least three to the Sweet 16.

Player of the Week ... My vote this week goes to Michigan point guard Daniel Horton. Horton played perhaps the best game of his career in an upset win over Michigan State and then was clutch again from the charity stripe in a big win over the Badgers. Other may have had more gaudy statistics, but without Horton, Michigan would not be 5-2 right now.

This week's Game of the Week ... Three games come to mind this week, one of them an OOC clash. The week starts off with Illinois visiting the Kohl Center. The Illini are the only Big Ten team to defeat a Bo Ryan Badger team at Wisconsin. The second game of note takes place in Iowa City where the other two teams tied atop the standings (Michigan & Iowa) do battle. Finally, the UConn - Indiana game could be a classic.

Where do they rank? I'd put the following teams in my Top 25: Illinois (8), Michigan State (15), Michigan (18), Indiana (19), Ohio State (20), Wisconsin (21) and Iowa (22).

How it will go down ... After this week, the tip-top of the league will get a little leaner. However, there are still seven teams right in the thick of this race. Wisconsin and Iowa will be on top, with Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan and Indiana one game behind.

Thursday, January 26, 2006

Where things stand …

Okay, we’re six (seven for some) games into the Big Ten race and it is tighter than I imagined back when I did my preseason predictions in early November. Winning on the road is as tough as ever, with home teams standing at 25-10 in conference play. With that said, here is a reminder of what I predicted, and an adjusted look as we near the halfway point of Big Ten play, followed by how I think it will play out the rest of the season.

What I predicted (in order of finish, with OOC record, B10 record, total record and postseason action:

Michigan State – 12-2 / 13-3 (T-1st) / 25-5 / NCAA Berth
Illinois – 12-2 / 13-3 (T-1st) / 25-5 / NCAA Berth
Wisconsin – 11-2 / 12-4 (3rd) / 23-6 / NCAA Berth
Iowa – 12-2 / 10-6 (4th) / 22-8 / NCAA Berth
Ohio State – 9-2 / 9-7 (T-5th) / 18-9 / NCAA Berth
Indiana – 8-3 / 9-7 (T-5th) / 17-10 / NCAA Berth
Minnesota – 9-2 / 8-8 (7th) / 17-10 / NIT Berth
Michigan – 9-2 / 7-9 (8th) / 16-11 / NIT Berth
Purdue – 8-3 / 3-13 (T-9th) / 11-16
Northwestern – 7-5 / 3-13 (T-9th) / 10-18
Penn State – 7-4 / 1-15 (11th) / 8-19

Obviously, some teams are better, some worse as we near the mid-point. Indiana, Ohio State and Michigan are definitely on pace to a better season than I expected, Wisconsin, Illinois, MSU and Iowa are more or less on schedule, while Minnesota is far worse than I predicted. Michigan State already has the three league losses that I predicted for them, but I did have State losing to Illinois and Wisconsin to start the season so they are not far off pace. Penn State and Northwestern could play the spoiler somewhere along the road as well so keep an eye on them. Don't count on the same for hard luck Purdue though.

Here is how the teams stand today (in order, with actual OOC record, current B10 record – including home & away, and total record):

Wisconsin – 10-3 / 5-1 (1st) / 4-0 at home, 1-1 away / 15-4 overall
Indiana – 8-2 / 4-2 (T-2nd) / 4-0 at home, 0-2 away / 12-4 overall
Illinois – 14-0 / 4-2 (T-2nd) / 3-0 at home, 1-2 away / 18-2 overall
Ohio State – 10-0 / 4-2 (T-2nd) / 2-1 at home, 2-1 away / 14-2 overall
Michigan – 10-1 / 4-2 (T-2nd) / 3-0 at home, 1-2 away / 14-3 overall
Iowa – 11-3 / 4-2 (T-2nd) / 3-0 at home, 1-2 away / 15-5 overall
Michigan State – 12-2 / 3-3 (7th) / 2-0 at home, 1-3 away / 15-5 overall
Northwestern – 7-4 / 3-4 (8th) / 1-2 at home, 2-2 away / 10-8 overall
Penn State – 8-3 / 2-4 (9th) / 1-2 at home, 1-2 away / 10-7 overall
Purdue – 6-5 / 1-6 (10th) / 1-2 at home, 0-4 away / 7-11 overall
Minnesota – 9-2 / 0-6 (11th) / 0-3 at home, 0-3 away / 9-8 overall

So, knowing what I know now, seeing what I have seen, with a better feel for the haves and have nots, and given who plays who where, here is what I expect the rest of the way (in order of finish, predicted B10 record - including losses (wins for the bottom teams), total record and postseason action):

Wisconsin – 12-4 (T-1st) / 22-7 / NCAA berth – 4 seed / Losses at Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa. Note, with the recent loss of two players, Wisconsin could slide the most, but they are so well-coached, I just don't expect it.

Michigan State – 12-4 (T-1st) / 24-6 / NCAA berth – 3 seed / Loss at Indiana. I know, you're thinking "they're 3-3 in conference right now, no way they go 9-1 to end the regular season" but to that I say, look at recent history. State plays its best ball in February and March.

Indiana – 11-5 (T-3rd) / 19-8 / NCAA berth – 5 seed / Losses at Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan and an OOC loss to UConn. IU could win this thing, but will need better road play and with six of ten away from Bloomington, look out.

Illinois – 11-5 (T-3rd) / 25-5 / NCAA berth – 3 seed / Losses at Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State. Illinois just quietly trudges along. The Illini still have several tough road games left and may be too reliant on Brown and Augustine to win it this year.

Iowa – 11-5 (T-3rd) / 22-8 / NCAA berth – 7 seed / Losses at Indiana, to Michigan State and at Illinois. It all depends on whether or not Iowa does its usual late season collapse.

Michigan – 10-6 (T-6th) / 20-7 / NCAA berth – 8 seed / Losses at Iowa, at Michigan State, to Illinois and at Ohio State. Michigan is a team that could do better but won't do much worse than this. There are still several tough road games and it will be hard to get up for games like they did for MSU.

Ohio State – 10-6 (T-6th) / 21-6 / NCAA berth – 6 seed / Losses at Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State. Another that falls in the won't do worse but could do better category. Already has had some road success albeit against the lower tier teams in the league.

Northwestern – 5-11 (8th) / 13-15 / No Postseason / Wins over Minnesota and at Purdue. A team fully capable of being a spolier.

Penn State – 4-12 (9th) / 12-15 / No Postseason / Wins over Minnesota and at Purdue. See Northwestern.

Minnesota – 1-15 (T-10th) / 10-17 / No Postseason / Win over Purdue – Coach Monson gets fired. Minnesota might spring a home upset, but so far they are 0-3 at The Barn with more tough foes coming to town.

Purdue – 1-15 (T-10th) / 7-20 / No Postseason. Tough first year for Coach Painter, but he will have this program back on track in a few years.

Thoughts? Insights? Agree or disagree?

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Weekly Bracketology Watch ...
The Big Ten is getting the love it deserves from EPSN.com's Joe Lunardi. This week's brackets - keep in mind that we are a long, long way from March - have seven teams in, and none of them really on the proverbial bubble. I certainly see six for sure, and if Michigan can stay at or above .500 and win a big game or two, seven.

Michigan State is listed as a rising 2 seed, in the Washington D.C. bracket.
Illinois is listed as a rising 2 seed, in the Minneapolis bracket.
Indiana is listed as a rising 3 seed, in the Atlanta bracket.
Ohio State is listed as a rising 4 seed, in the Oakland bracket.
Wisconsin is listed as a falling 4 seed, in the Minneapolis bracket.
Iowa is listed as a falling 9 seed, in the Washington D.C. bracket.
Michigan is listed as a rising 10 seed in the Oakland bracket.

Check out the entire bracket breakdown, weekly, at http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Monday, January 23, 2006

Thoughts about the week that was ...

Are you kidding me?
Lucy, you got some 'splainin to do. From the book of "What in the world just happened?" let's go ask Bucky that question. First I need to set the table. Wisconsin comes into a ho-hum, let me do a new D1 team a favor game with a 67-3 home mark under Coach Bo Ryan - 33-1 in the Big Ten. Those three losses? Wake Forest, Temple and Illinois. Three solid, ranked teams. The Badgers are tied atop the league standings, and have nothing but a glorified scrimmage on tap before getting back into Big Ten play. Uh, well, then again, maybe not. 10-9 North Dakota State marches into the daunting Kohl Center, a place that has Big Ten teams shaking in their high tops, and holds the Badgers to 22-percent shooting and strolls out with an easier than the final score might look 62-55 win. Are you kidding me? The only explanation can be that Wisconsin put this in the books before the game was played. I know I did. That, folks, is what makes college basketball the greatest game on earth.

I'd be remiss if I skipped this one ... As a Spartan alum and die hard fan, I'd be remiss if I didn't comment on the way Rick Majerus dogs us every chance he gets. From consistently getting it wrong about Drew Neitzel (he says he never looks to score - yet by my count has eight double digit games this year, including some big ones against Georgia Tech and B.C.) to saying MSU can't be a Final Four team because the team lacks the offensive firepower of the 2000 team (um, hello, get the tacos off your brain Coach, this team is the only one in America with three players averaging at least 17 ppg) , to calling Mo Ager a non athlete (I'm not going to even give that lunacy the time of day) and finally ending the broadcast by saying that the Big Ten will run through Wisconsin and Indiana - this guy needs to stick to A) coaching or B) finding a gig as a taster on the Food Channel. ESPN needs to ship Majerus to the WAC and give us Lavin and Dukie V. as the only color options.

Home teams still dominating ...
After a 7-3 week, home teams are now 21-9 in conference play. Ohio State bounced back from a rare home loss to pick off then conference unbeaten Wisconsin. Michigan State hammered Iowa. Indiana held off Illinois and Purdue. No doubt about it, to win this league, you're going to need to hold serve at home and win at least four, maybe five on the road.

No better league...
Say what you want about the Big Ten, but I say it is the toughest conference in the land this season. The conference RPIs agree. Yes, the Big East might, might get 10 teams in the dance, but that's 10 of 16 or 62.5% of its teams. The Big Ten will surely get six and might get seven. That's 63.6%. Quantity doesn't necessarily mean quality. Yes, Georgetown did that league proud with a great win over Duke, but only Dukie V. would make that the one reason the Big East is better. Give me the Big Ten come tourney time.

Player of the Week ...
BigTen.org named Indiana's Marco Killingsworth its Player of the Week after putting up 20.5 ppg and 11 rpg in two home wins. Tough to disagree, though my vote would have to go to Iowa's Greg Brunner. Yes, Iowa got crushed at Michigan State, but for the week, Brunner averaged 17 points and 16.5 boards, including a 23-rebound performance in a triple overtime win over Minnesota.

This week's Game of the Week ...
Four games jump to mind this week - Indiana at Iowa, Michigan State at Michigan, Wisconsin at Michigan, and Ohio State at Iowa. Iowa can keep itself right in the thick of the race with two home wins this week. Remember, to win this thing, you're going to need to hold serve at home. That is what makes these games huge for the Hawkeyes. In between there is a chance for Michigan to prove that it belongs in conversations about March.

Where do they rank?
I'd put the following teams in my Top 25: Illinois (8), Michigan State (9), Indiana (12), Ohio State (15), and Wisconsin (22). Honorable mention: Michigan and Iowa.

How it will go down ... After this week, I see a jam at the top. Indiana and Wisconsin will split, Iowa will bounce back for two wins, and Michigan State will continue its streak. Illinois will also win its lone game of the week, for a five team tie at the top.

What do you think?
Give your take on the Daily Word anytime - I welcome your comments and will post the best comments the next time I post.

Thursday, January 19, 2006

Random thoughts on some of this week's happenings ...

A Player in the Stands ... I am not a fan of the NBA, more of a casual observer and follower of former Spartans now in the league. However, I'd be remiss if I failed to comment on the "Antonio Davis incident" in Chicago last night. Folks, this is so different from the melee at the Palace in November of 04 that it shouldn't even be a story. The guy was being a man ... a good husband to his wife and a great father to his kids. He didn't lay a hand on a person. He didn't go Artest or Jackson on some drunk Jake who threw a cup of beer. Guy was simply doing his duties as a spouse and dad. The real story here is what a fool fans can be. Take a page out of the college arena's books - don't sell beer at the games. I like a cold one myself - preferably a Black & Tan or a Guinness, but I don't need to be, not should I be, drunk at a sporting event. Antonio Davis is innocent. The fan - guilty as charged. His punishment? Banned for LIFE from The United Center. End of story.

A little respect ... I love how the talk of March Madness starts to creep onto sports junkie web sites like ESPN.com so early (Bracketology). I also like the respect for the Big Ten in this week's ESPN.com Power 16 Poll. Five teams with three or four seeds? Right on the money, although I think the winner of the Big Ten undoubtedly gets at least a 2. I mean come on, the Big Ten may get the respect of Rodney Dangerfield when it comes to the media, but when push comes to shove, give me the Big Ten any day over any conference in the land. Big East? Good only because of the power in numbers. In a one and done situation, I'll take my chances with Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa over the likes of Villanova, UConn, Louisville, Pittsburgh and West Virginia. ACC, good only because of Puke, er, Duke. Yes, the ACC won the ACC-Big Ten Challenge - again - but that was in November when nothing matters. The Big Ten's last place team (Minnesota) nearly picked off both Wisconsin and Iowa in the past week. There are six, maybe seven legit NCAA caliber teams here and one or two that could play their way in with a hot run in Indy March 9-12. It's January 19 and the Big Ten is getting a little national love, let's see if it continues when the teams really start to beat up on one another.

NFL Playoff Picks ... As a good Midwesterner, the only thing I'd change is that it would be Chicago with a shot at the Super Bowl. But alas, I've become a Steeler fan for this weekend. It was too bad that the Colts couldn't get it done last weekend given what Tony Dungy faced late in the season, but wouldn't it be great to see a blue collar team like Pittsburgh win the Super Bowl in a blue collar town like Detroit? I like the Steelers and Seahawks to get to Ford Field and the Steelers to finally get the big one for Coach Cowher.
Reposted from TheFinalScore.net (originally written 1/17/2006)

Road wins suddenly easier ... Okay, so home squads were 9-1 in the first week of conference play. After two weeks? The gap has been narrowed. Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State and yes, even Penn State (who hadn't won on the road in what, five years?) took home road victories last week. That makes home teams 14-6 so far on the season. Big roadies this week include Illinois at Indiana, Wisconsin at Ohio State and Iowa at Michigan State.

PSU not so bad after all ... The Nittany Lions won't make the NIT, let alone the NCAA, but for once, they are not the pushover, easy win they've been since coming into the conference. Not only did they beat then unbeaten Northwestern on the road last week, but they very well could have scored an upset against Iowa in State College. Watch this team the rest of the season, I'd be willing to bet they score a monumental upset along the way ...

Player of the Week ... BigTen.org named Paul Davis from MSU its player of the week. Tough to argue with that, since Davis erupted after a forgettable 2 point effort at Wisconsin for 23 points and 10 boards against Indiana and 18 points, 13 rebounds, three blocks and the game clinching free throws in the double overtime battle at Ohio State.

This week's Game of the Week ... Three games jump to mind this week - Illinois at Indiana, Wisconsin at Ohio State and Iowa at Michigan State. But, given that Wisconsin is the lone unbeaten, I'll go with the game in C-bus as the one to watch in the Big Ten this week.

Where do they rank? I'd put the following teams in my Top 25: Illinois (8), Michigan State (11), Wisconsin (12), Indiana (18), Ohio State (19), and Iowa (24).

How it will go down ... After this week, I see things starting to shake out a little bit. Indiana will hand Illinois its second loss, Wisconsin will finally tally a mark in the "L" column with a tough one at Ohio State, Iowa will pick up a second loss as well (at Michigan State) giving us a tie at the top between Wisconsin and Indiana and a glut at two losses - Illinois, MSU, Iowa and Michigan.
What do you think? Give your take on the Daily Word anytime ...