Showing posts with label bowl predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bowl predictions. Show all posts

Monday, November 09, 2009

Monday Morning Quarterback
Another weekend, another rash of wild and unpredictable outcomes. Been waiting for Iowa to finally lose a close one? Check. Wondering when Purdue might finally win again in Ann Arbor? Check. Prepared for the road team to win again in the hotly contested Penn State - Ohio State series? Check.

And that wasn't all. Illinois got it done, again. Indiana nearly stormed back to beat Wisconsin. Michigan State finally pounded someone while finding another capable tailback in the process. Every single team in the Big Ten still has at least a shot at bowl eligibility.

It all sets up for a great run to the finish, even if the top of the conference was likely signed, sealed and delivered on November 7...

Team of the Week: Purdue. The Boilermakers came off a 37-0 pasting at Wisconsin, spotted Michigan a 24-10 lead, came back and won in Ann Arbor for the first time since 1966. That's 43 years. When a guy the youngsters know as a recently suspended college football color commentator quarterbacked the gold and black (Bob Griese). Hat's off to Purdue...

Player of the Week: Kirk Cousins, Michigan State. Yep, gonna give one of my guys the love. He was nearly perfect, going 22-25 for 353 yards and two touchdowns. Others stepped up big too, but Cousins had no turnovers - while Joey Elliott had a couple. Honorable mention to OSU defensive lineman Cameron Hayward who had a HUGE game at Penn State.

Around the Big Ten
From here on out, I'll focus the team-by-team capsules on the adjusted bowl possibilities and projections. Here are ESPN.com's, ESPN Big Ten Blogger Adam Rittenberg's, and CBS Sportsline's.

A few things to keep in mind: a 6-6 team can be selected ahead of a 7-5 team as long as the 7-5 team is guaranteed a Big Ten bowl tie-in. All bowls except the Insight and Little Caesar's Pizza cannot select a team with two fewer wins than the team above it in the standings. Note that the picking order is as follows: Rose, Capital One, Outback, Champs, Alamo, Insight, Little Caesar's.

Illinois - Don't look now, but Illinois has strung together two straight, and this time with a (formerly) third string signal caller. It won't be easy to get to six, but momentum is key in college football.

Best case is 6-6. Worst case is 3-9. Prediction is 4-8. Next up: Northwestern

Indiana - Another week, another tough loss for the Hoosiers. This time, instead of giving up a lead, Indiana nearly came back to pull off a big upset. Time is not on the Hoosiers' side, needing two wins with a trip to Penn State looming.

Best case is 6-6. Worst case is 4-8. Prediction is 5-7 and no bowl. Next Up: at Penn State

Iowa - Easy come, easy go. Iowa had lived on the edge for most of its nine wins and it finally bit them over the weekend. Losing Stanzi was the nail in that coffin. Now the Hawkeyes MUST beat Ohio State or the Rose Bowl that seemed almost a given goes down the drain.

Best case is 11-1. Worst case is 9-3. Prediction is 10-2 and a Capital One Bowl berth. Next up: at Ohio State.

Michigan - The heat on RichRod was just cranked up to max temp. Michigan blew another first half lead with laughable defense. With a road game and a game against Tressel still on tap, it looks like another season of home for the holiday's for the boys in blue.


Best case is 7-5. Worst case is 5-7. Prediction is 5-7 and no bowl. Next up: at Wisconsin

Michigan State - That was just what the doctor ordered. The Spartans jumped on Western Michigan early and often and pulled within a game of bowl eligibility with two left. This week sets up to be a great game, with two snake bitten teams going toe-to-toe to try and get to a bowl.


Best case is 7-5. Worst case is 5-7. Prediction is 7-5 and an Alamo Bowl Berth. Next up: at Purdue

Minnesota - So much for turning any corners. Minnesota fell back to earth - hard - against Illinois and set itself back in the quest for a good bowl berth. This weekend appears to offer up the sixth win gimmie, but the loss to Illinois punts Minnesota all the way to the bottom.


Best case is 7-5. Worst case is 5-7. Prediction is 6-6. Minnesota goes from Disney to Detroit with that one loss. Little Caesar's Pizza anyone? Next up: South Dakota State

Northwestern - The Wildcats hung one on Iowa and probably gain the most of anyone in the conference other than Ohio State. The 'cats are bowl eligible and now it is a matter of improving positioning.

Best case is 8-4. Worst case 6-6. Prediction is 7-5. The Wildcats head to Phoenix for the Insight Bowl. Next up: at Illinois

Ohio State - Guess who sits in the driver's seat in the Big Ten - again? Ohio State put forth a dominating defensive effort at State College and put itself in great position to make a run for the Roses. That win was a huge money maker for the scarlet and gray.

Best Case is 10-2. Worst case is 8-4. Prediction is 10-2, a fifth straight title and a trip to the Rose Bowl. Next Up: Iowa

Penn State - The Nittany Lions are 0-fer against upper tier competition so far this year. The shocking part is that both losses happened at home. With the title all but out of the question, and with it, a BCS berth, it is all about where in FLA the Nittany Lions want to spend the holidays.

Best case is 10-2. Worst case is 8-4. Prediction is 9-3 and a berth in the Outback Bowl. Next up: Indiana

Purdue - That was a huge win for Purdue. The only spoiler factor was the Danny Hope / RichRod incident with the suspended lineman. That was a rookie move by an emotional coach. Nonetheless, the Boilers can go bowling with two more wins. The question is, which Purdue will show up on Saturday?
Best case is 6-6. Worst case is 4-8. Prediction is 5-7. Next up: Michigan State

Wisconsin - The Badgers tried to give one away in Bloomington over the weekend, but instead put a stranglehold on a Florida bowl berth. Two winnable games remain and that means the Badgers do have a chance - albeit a very outside shot - to hit a BCS bowl.

Best case is 10-2. Worst case is 7-5. Prediction is 10-2 and a trip back to Orlando for the Champs Bowl. Next up: Michigan

Get Gamm Winner:
For the first time in forever, we have a new leader at the top. Andrew won with a 5-1 record and pushed St. Louis into second place.

Michigan at Wisconsin
Northwestern at Illinois
South Dakota State at Minnesota
Indiana at Penn State
Michigan State at Purdue
Iowa at Ohio State (Tiebreaker)

Monday, November 02, 2009

Monday Morning Quarterback
I'll say something that I know Bill Lynch and Mark Dantonio want to say (as well as most of the rest of the coaches who have been hosed by absolutely horrible calls, no-calls or reversals this season): it is time for the Big Ten to publicly reprimand the hack jobs its officials are producing this season. Not a writer, broadcaster, coach or non game official has been able to explain how Indiana's TD got reversed, or how one could overturn a catch, football move, two steps and fumble at a critical juncture in the MSU - Minnesota tilt.

Since my team has been burned by it in particular the last two weeks, I say it is more than past time to suspend, fire or hang the culprits that are ruining the game in effigy.

Now that I have that off my chest... we have a clear separation of the top four, middle four and bottom three these days in the Big Ten. That didn't stop one of the bottom feeders from finally getting it done, or another from coming very close - again - to another upset win but in the end, there is a clear delineation in the league right now.

Team of the Week: Illinois. The Fighting Illini finally got up off the mat and put together an impressive win. It all started with a critical four down stand at the one and catapulted the beleaguered Illini to a much-needed victory.

Player of the Week: Adam Weber, Minnesota QB. No Decker? No problem. Adam Weber threaded the needle all night against what had been an air tight MSU pass defense to the tune of 416 yards and 5 TD passes.

Around the Big Ten
This week, I'll focus the team-by-team capsules on bowl possibilities and projections. Note that the picking order is as follows: Rose, Capital One, Outback, Champs, Alamo, Insight, Little Caesar's. There are also a handful of bowls that will be looking to fill slots, so even if the Big Ten doesn't get two in the BCS, there will be room for anyone 6-6 or better.

Illinois - Saturday was sweet for the Illini. A hustle play and subsequent goal line stand turned the tide and gave Illinois its second straight win over the Wolverines. The Illini are 2-6 and while not officially eliminated from bowl eligibility, it will take a minor miracle for that to happen. Illinois may spring up and take another couple of wins, but no bowling for the Zookers this season. At least the Illini play their last game December 5, so it will feel like a bowl game.

Best case is 6-6. Worst case is 2-10. Prediction is 3-9. Next up: at Minnesota

Indiana - Nuts and bolts, nuts and bolts, they got screwed. Indiana was on its way to extending the lead against what felt like a lifeless Iowa team until an inexplicable reversal of a clear touchdown. That gave Iowa life and that was all the Hawkeyes needed. IU is 4-5 (1-4) and needs two more to go bowling. That's a daunting task with Wisconsin, Penn State and Purdue left.


Best case is 7-5. Worst case is 4-8. My prediction? 5-7 (2-6) and no bowl. Next Up: Wisconsin

Iowa - Apparently, Iowa does have major magic. It can throw five picks, get booth reversals that make about as much sense as wiping before you poop and pop you with big plays as quick as lightning strikes. Amazing. Iowa is 4th in the BCS standings and has one more major hurdle to a perfect record. That said, Northwestern and Minnesota could sting the Hawkeyes at home if they don't arrive a little earlier. I can't see the magic carrying this team all the way to 12-0, at least not with the level of mistakes made against IU.


Best case is 12-0. Worst case is 9-3. Prediction is 11-1 (7-1), a share of the title and a Rose Bowl berth. Next up: Northwestern

Michigan - Ouch. The spiral continues. Was it smoke and mirrors in September? Maybe so. The Wolverines turtled up in a major way in Champaign and the rest of the slate isn't exactly loaded with Delaware State's. In fact, this weekend's game is probably the best shot to get something done.


Best case is 8-4. Worst case is 5-7. Prediction is 6-6 (2-6) with the Champs, Alamo, Insight and Little Caesar's Bowls in the mix. That 2-6 record and head-to-head loss to another 6-6 team (MSU) means Michigan slides to the Insight Bowl. Next up: Purdue

Michigan State - Another week, another bad call by the officials (replay in this case) another 8-point or less loss for Dantonio and crew. For those keeping score, that's 12 of 15 losses in Dantonio's tenure by 8 points or less. Spotting a seemingly down and out Gopher squad 14 points before running a play hurt - BAD. The schedule eases up a tad the next few weeks, but there isn't an automatic path to six wins.


Best case is 7-5. Worst case is 4-8. Prediction is 6-6 (4-4). Based on the wins over Michigan and Northwestern (fellow 6-6 teams) and MSU being well-traveled, San Antonio and the Alamo Bowl call. Next up: Western Michigan

Minnesota - It seems like teams who lose the big offensive star always step up. Maybe because others get a look. Perhaps it is because the players rally for the downed teammate. In this case, I think it was both. The Golden Gophers came alive in a major way against MSU, and more or less sealed bowl eligibility with a couple of easy home games left.


Best case is 8-4. Worst case is 5-7. Prediction is 7-5 (4-4). The Champs Bowl might think about MSU despite the head-to-head result because MSU has traveled well to Orlando the last two years, but I think newness prevails and Minny invades Disney. Next up: Illinois

Northwestern - The Wildcats hung tight with Penn State for three quarters, but the loss of Kafka put a lid on any upset hopes. Northwestern sits in a precarious position. It still has two road games left, including a rivalry game and closes with Wisconsin at home. One more win is needed, is it there?

Best case is 8-4. Worst case 5-7. Prediction is 6-6 (3-5). Northwestern will get hosed by the Michigan factor a bit, moving down to the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl despite a better conference record than Michigan. No head to head hurts as well as that even easier than Michigan's OOC slate. Next up: at Iowa

Ohio State - Ohio State got it's third shutout of the season and a chance to work more kinks out of the offense. The Buckeyes have a grueling stretch run remaining, but live for these moments. We'll see what Pryor and the offense is made of in the next few weeks.

Best Case is 10-2. Worst case is 7-5. Prediction is 9-3 (6-2) and a trip to the Capital One Bowl. Can you believe it has been since 1996 that the Buckeyes have been in Orlando for New Year's Day? Next Up: at Penn State

Penn State - The Nittany Lions had a battle on their hands for a little more than a half last weekend, but have set themselves up nicely for a run to the finish. Ohio State comes calling, followed by Indiana and then a potential trap in East Lansing. It's simple, win out and the BCS will likely come calling. Slip once or twice and it'll be warm and sunshine for New Year's but not with the payout desired.

Best case is 11-1. Worst case is 8-4. Prediction is 11-1 (7-1), Co-Champs and a likely berth in the Fiesta Bowl. Next up: Ohio State

Purdue - Just when I thought Purdue was over the hump, the Boilers got "Badger-slapped" in Madison. That goose egg performance leaves no margin for error in the quest for bowl eligibility. The next three are winnable games, but the Boilermakers have been way too up and down this year for that to happen.


Best case is 6-6. Worst case is 3-9. Prediction is 3-9. Tough losses at Michigan and to Michigan State followed by a loss of the Old Oaken Bucket to rival IU. Next up: at Michigan

Wisconsin - The Badgers are back. Wisconsin bullied and battered the Boilers on Saturday en route to a 37-0 shutout win. UW has four games left and none of them should create much fear. It all sets up for the Badgers to enjoy some warmth and sun for the holiday's.

Best case is 10-2. Worst case is 6-6. Prediction is 10-2 (6-2). The head to head loss to OSU coupled with the fact that UW travels to Hawaii in December knocks the Badgers back to the Outback Bowl. Next up: at Indiana

Get Gamm Winner:
Seems that going out on the limb for the Illinois-Michigan game paid off. I was the only one to go 5-1 meaning no one "Got Gamm" for the week.

Illinois at Minnesota
Northwestern at Iowa
Purdue at Michigan
Western Michigan at Michigan State
Wisconsin at Indiana
Ohio State at Penn State (Tiebreaker)