Thursday, February 19, 2009

Breaking down the Big Ten finish
Wow, I tuned in to watch the Penn State v. Illinois basketball game last night and a high scoring football game broke out! Tough to believe that as tough as the Illini are at home, they've lost three straight to the Nittany Lions at Assembly Hall. That effectively knocks Illinois out of the race for first, as I think no more than four losses takes it this year.

Ohio State also took one on the chin, though in a much more entertaining fashion. The three point shooting in that game was unreal. Northwestern has to be thinking "we're five points - FIVE POINTS - in three home losses (Purdue, Illinois, Michigan) away from 17-7 and a very real shot at the school's first ever berth to the Big Dance.

With all that went on last night, Purdue's win over Michigan State and five to six games left on everyone's plate, I thought I would go team by team and run through how I see the season playing out. By the way, realize I have no analyzed all the tie breakers for seeding, so I admit I may be off a slot or two where there are ties!

Michigan State - 10-3 (20-5)
2/22 - Wisconsin (WIN)
2/25 - Iowa (WIN)
3/1 - at Illinois (LOSS)
3/3 - at Indiana (WIN)
3/7 or 8 - Purdue (WIN)

14-4 (24-6). Big Ten champs. No. 1 seed in B10 Tourney, No. 2 seed in Big Dance.

Purdue - 9-4 (20-6)
2/21 - Indiana (WIN)
2/26 - at Michigan (WIN)
2/28 - Ohio State (WIN)
3/4 - Northwestern (WIN)
3/7 or 8 - at Michigan State (LOSS)

13-5 (24-7). Second place. No. 2 seed in B10 Tourney, No. 3 seed in Big Dance.

Illinois - 9-5 (21-6)
2/22 - at Ohio State (LOSS)
2/26 - Minnesota (WIN)
3/1 - Michigan State (WIN)
3/5 - at Penn State (WIN)

12-6 (24-7). 3rd place finish. No. 3 seed in B10 Tourney, No. 6 seed in Big Dance.

Penn State - 8-6 (19-8)
2/24 - at Ohio State (LOSS)
2/28 - Indiana (WIN)
3/5 - Illinois (LOSS)
3/7 - at Iowa (WIN)

10-8 (21-10). T-5th place finish. No. 6 seed in B10 Tourney, No. 10 seed in Big Dance.

Minnesota - 7-6 (19-6)
2/19 - at Michigan (LOSS)
2/22 - Northwestern (WIN)
2/26 - at Illinois (LOSS)
3/4 - Wisconson (WIN)
3/8 - Michigan (WIN)

10-8 (22-8). T-5th place finish. No. 7 seed in B10 Tourney, No. 9 seed in Big Dance.

Ohio State - 7-6 (17-7)
2/22 - Illinois (WIN)
2/24 - Penn State (WIN)
2/28 - at Purdue (LOSS)
3/3 - at Iowa (WIN)
3/7 - Northwestern (WIN)

11-7 (21-8). 4th place finish. No. 4 seed in B10 Tourney, No. 6 seed in Big Dance.

Wisconsin - 7-6 (16-9)
2/19 - at Indiana (WIN)
2/22 - at Michigan State (LOSS)
3/1 - Michigan (WIN)
3/4 - at Minnesota (LOSS)
3/7 - Indiana (WIN)

10-8 (19-11). T-5th place finish. No. 5 seed in B10 Tourney, No. 11 seed in Big Dance.

Michigan - 6-7 (16-10)
2/19 - Minnesota (WIN)
2/22 - at Iowa (WIN)
2/26 - Purdue (LOSS)
3/1 - at Wisconsin (LOSS)
3/7 - at Minnesota (LOSS)

8-10 (18-13). 8th place finish. No. 8 seed in B10 Tourney, NIT bid.

Northwestern - 5-8 (14-10)
2/22 - at Minnesota (LOSS)
2/25 - at Indiana (WIN)
2/28 - Iowa (WIN)
3/4 - at Purdue (LOSS)
3/7 - at Ohio State (LOSS)

7-11 (16-13). 9th place finish. No. 9 seed in B10 Tourney, NIT bid.

Iowa - 3-10 (13-13)
2/22 - Michigan (LOSS)
2/25 - at Michigan State (LOSS)
2/28 - at Northwestern (LOSS)
3/3 - Ohio State (LOSS)
3/7 - Penn State (LOSS)

3-15 (13-18). X place finish. No. X seed in B10 Tourney.

Indiana - 1-11 (6-18)
2/19 - Wisconsin (LOSS)
2/21 - at Purdue (LOSS)
2/25 - Northwestern (LOSS)
2/28 - at Penn State (LOSS)
3/3 - Michigan State (LOSS)
3/7 - at Wisconsin (LOSS)

1-17 (6-24). Last place finish. No. 11 seed in B10 Tourney.

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