Thursday, November 01, 2007

Break for basketball...
Note: perhaps I should have waited another week. Read: MSU has its own Appalachian State.

Anyone who knows me or who has followed my former web site and now blog knows where my true sports love lies. College basketball. And no, it isn't just because my alma mater is usually in a free fall on the gridiron by now! I love the game. Can't get enough of it. I just wish I had the time to devote to my previews for hoops that I do for football. But alas, it's all about timing and with football in full swing and work busy, there just isn't the time to go as in-depth as I'd prefer.

That said, I did, as always, take the time to study each team, review their schedules, predict the entire Big Ten season, and for that matter, the entire season for each team in the greatest conference around. So, what follows is a snapshot of what I'd love to ramble on and on and on about but don't have the time for.

I expect great things for the conference this year, but a great divide between the good and the bad with little in between. Unlike the football side of things, there are several programs that will vie for a title in basketball but fewer who will make the postseason. No watered down Big Ten this year. Big boys versus the rest... Without further ado...

Predictions:

1 - Michigan State Spartans

OOC Projection: 12-1
Big Ten Projection: 15-3
Big Ten Tourney: Champs

Postseason: NCAA Tournament - Final Four
Total Record: 34-5

Comments: This team is flat out loaded. A team that had to rely on very little guard depth last year hit the jackpot with three guards in a highly ranked recruiting class. 10-12 players will battle for time, which means a return to the fervent pace that Tom Izzo prefers. If the freshmen can gel quickly, play defense to Coach Izzo's standards and the bigs continue to improve - look out. This could be a sleeper national title contender. Drew Neitzel is a legitimate Player of the Year contender and we saw last year that this bunch can defend. Look for the first Big Ten title since 2001 in E.L.

2- Indiana Hoosiers
OOC Projection: 11-2
Big Ten Projection: 14-4
Big Ten Tourney: Semi-finals
Postseason: NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16
Total Record: 28-8

Comments: It will be interesting to see if any of the recent off court issues (Assistant coach resigning as a part of yet another recruiting rules violation by Sampson and a recruit busted for cocaine) have a bearing on what could be Indiana's best season in years. The Hoosiers lost five players from last year's team but have reloaded with some NBA caliber talent - namely Eric Gordon. If DJ White can stay healthy and the new Hoosiers gel, this could be a big year in Bloomington.

T3 - Ohio State Buckeyes
OOC Projection: 10-3
Big Ten Projection: 13-5
Big Ten Tourney: Finals
Postseason: NCAA Tournament - 2nd Round
Total Record: 26-10

Comments: Talk about reloading. Thad Matta has to replace two lottery picks and three other key players from a team that lost in the national title game last April. There is a nice mix of veteran leadership to go with an influx of fresh blood that will have OSU right in the thick of things again this season. If Jamar Butler can provide the incredible leadership, poise and gamesmanship that will be missed with Mike Conley's departure, the Buckeyes will be a huge factor in the league race.

T3 - Wisconsin Badgers
OOC Projection: 9-3
Big Ten Projection: 13-5
Big Ten Tourney: Semi-finals
Postseason: NCAA Tournament - 2nd Round
Total Record: 24-10

Comments: Another contender that has to reload. Do you sense a theme? Teams all around the Big Ten - with the exception of Michigan State - lost some key cogs from last season. That can certainly be said about the Badgers, who lost its leading scorers (Alando Tucker and Kammron "don't call me Chris Rock" Taylor) and a defensive stopper (Jason Chappell). But don't shed any tears for Bo Ryan. His brand of basketball doesn't call for a superstar - even if Tucker was just that - and he may have one sitting on his roster anyway, in the person of Marcus Landry. Wisconsin will be a thorn in the side of everyone vying for the top slot. They always are...


5 - Illinois Fighting Illini
OOC Projection: 10-3
Big Ten Projection: 12-6
Big Ten Tourney: Quarterfinals
Postseason: NCAA Tournament - 2nd Round
Total Record: 23-11

Comments: It can be argued that Illinois has the best established, returning frontcourt in the Big Ten. The trouble is, will the backcourt produce? Guard Jamar Smith is suspended for the season and that doesn't help an already thin and traditionally (as of late) banged up corps of guards. Illinois will grind teams to their pace and while it is a safe bet that Coach Weber would rather have guys like the Head-Brown-Williams trio on the court, he'll take the laborious approach - especially if it means Ws. It won't be pretty, but Illinois will win its share of games the old-fashioned way - with stiffling defense.

6 - Purdue Boilermakers
OOC Projection: 10-3
Big Ten Projection: 10-8
Big Ten Tourney: Quarterfinals
Postseason: NCAA Tournament - 2nd Round
Total Record: 22-13

Comments: In the past, losing two big-time scorers and battle-tested seniors like Carl Landry and David Teague would relegate the old gold and black to the back of the pack. Not this time. Matt Painter is quietly bringing Purdue back to the top after a few years of suffering in West Lafayette. It helps tremendously that many so-called experts are putting his recruiting class into the same conversation as the one that Tom Izzo landed in East Lansing and Thad Matta in Columbus. This team has some grit returning and will get better as the season wears on and might be the surprise team of the conference when all is said and done.

7 - Penn State Nittany Lions
OOC Projection: 9-3
Big Ten Projection: 6-12
Big Ten Tourney: Quarterfinals
Postseason: NIT - 2nd Round
Total Record: 17-17

Comments: How long has Penn State been due to have a breakout season? A long, long time. In fact, so long that this may be the last shot that Coach Ed DeChellis has in State College. There are two stars in the lineup in Geary Claxton and Jamelle Cornley and the supporting cast might be as strong as it's been in years. But, can the team get over the hump? It can't get much worse than the 2-14 conference record a season ago. That's why the pressue is on this season. I think Penn State is going to get a few brow-raising wins, but lose its share of head-scratchers as well. In the end, will an NIT berth be enough to save the program from starting over - again?

T8 - Iowa Hawkeyes
OOC Projection: 9-3
Big Ten Projection: 5-13
Big Ten Tourney: Quarterfinals
Postseason: None
Total Record: 15-17

Comments: How's this for starters - Iowa has to replace two players from a very average team. Those players (Adam Haluska and Tyler Smith) combined to put up 35.4 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 6.2 apg and 2.9 spg. Oh and there is a new coach in Iowa City. It can be said, however, that the latter is a good thing - at least if you ask Hawkeyes fans. Steve Alford was never fully embraced at Iowa for one reason or another. But when new boss Todd Lickliter brings his Butler brand of basketball and turns a relative group of no names into a competitive team, watch the love fest begin. This will be a transition year, but I expect Iowa to surprise people at times throughout the season.

T8 - Michigan Wolverines
OOC Projection: 7-5
Big Ten Projection: 5-13
Big Ten Tourney: 1st Round
Postseason: None
Total Record: 12-19

Comments: Another team with a new coach, searching for a new, tougher identity. John Beilein is just the type of coach that can turn the Michigan program around. Tommy Amaker did yeoman's work in getting the maize and blue past the debacle that was the Brian Ellerbe era and moved the Wolverines out of the shadow of scandal, but never did get them over the hump. Beilein will bring a new style, one that worked in a blue collar sort of way at West Virginia. He has some talent to work with but a brutal OOC slate. Give it time and Michigan will be back in the mix. But U-M is at least a season away from being truly competitive in the conference.

10 - Minnesota Golden Gophers
OOC Projection: 8-4
Big Ten Projection: 4-14
Big Ten Tourney: 1st Round
Postseason: None
Total Record: 12-19

Comments: The biggest coup by any team - possibly in America - that had to go find a coach was Minnesota luring an embattled Tubby Smith away from Kentucky. Smith is a fantastic basketball coach with big time credentials. He knows how to run a spotlight program and has a real chance to build Minnesota basketball into something special. He inherits a rag tag roster of sorts but should have an immediate impact on their level of success. Give him a recruiting class or two and watch the Gophers rise up as well... it just won't happen this season.

11 - Northwestern Wildcats
OOC Projection: 6-4
Big Ten Projection: 2-16
Big Ten Tourney: 1st Round
Postseason: None
Total Record: 8-21

Comments: Coach Bill Carmody has been in Evanston for a while now, with nothing major to show for during his tenure. He's an excellent basketball mind but simply cannot get the type of horses needed to contend in the Big Ten. He often goes the eastern European route and gets some ballers, but his teams haven't been rugged enough to compete. This team was dealt at least a temporary blow as well when Kevin Coble took a leave to tend to his ill mother. Northwestern may prove me wrong, but my guess is that this might be Carmody's last stand in Evanston.

All Big Ten Team:
Drew Neitzel - G, Michigan State
Jamar Butler - G, Ohio State
Raymar Morgan - F, Michigan State
Marcus Landry - F, Wisconsin
D.J. White - F, Indiana

Player of the Year:
Drew Neitzel - G, Michigan State

Freshman of the Year:
Eric Gordon - G, Indiana

Coach of the Year:
Tom Izzo - Michigan State

No comments: