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Big Ten Football Previews – 2010

Editor's Note: So many things to do, so little time to do it. I know I've gone from writing novel-like predictions to shorter essays and this year - my tenth of providing preseason insights - I'm going Cliffs Notes on you. Here are previews for the bottom four... the others will follow as time allows.

Our annual prognostication contest will happen as always. In the meantime, digest, comment, disagree, etc. on my worst to first order and predictions. Football season is just a few weeks away!

*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.

Team: Minnesota Golden Gophers

Tidbits ... Minnesota was shut out twice last year, despite putting up more than 20 eight times and greater than 30 points four times.

Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 4-4 (6th), At Large / 6-7, 3-5 (8th), Insight
2008 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 2-6 (T-9th) / 7-6, 3-5 (T-6th), Insight
2007 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 1-7 (T-10th) / 1-11, 0-8 (11th)
2006 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-9th) / 6-7, 3-5 (T-6th), Insight
2005 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Motor City / 7-5, 4-4 (7th), Music City
2004 Prediction / actual: 6-5, 3-5 (8th), Motor City / 7-5, 3-5 (8th), Music City
2003 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (5th) / 10-3, 5-3 (T-4th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 2-6 (9th) / 8-5, 3-5 (T-7th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 5-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 4-7, 2-6 (T-10th)

Returning Starters: 9 offense, 2 defense, 1 kicker

Key Returnees: QB Adam Weber, QB MarQueis Gray, RB Duane Bennett, WR Troy Stoudermire, K Eric Ellestad

Key Losses: WR Adam Decker, LB Lee Campbell, LB Nate Triplett, CB Marcus Sherels

Prediction ... Minnesota has a sneaky tough OOC slate, headlined by USC. The Golden Gophers are breaking in yet another offensive coordinator and unveiling their fourth offense in as many years. The good news is, nine starters return on that side of the ball. The ugly news is that only two return on the defensive side of the ball and one of those broke an ankle in the spring, while the other was suspended. Both should be back but Minnesota could trot out eleven new starters on defense this fall. Ouch. I see things starting hot - as usual - for this team, but for the natives to get restless as soon as mid-October hits and the plunge begins.

OOC: 3-1 (lone loss comes to USC at home)
B10: 1-7 (lone win over Northwestern)
Overall: 4-8, T-10th in the conference

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Team: Indiana Hoosiers

Tidbits … Indiana's out of conference schedule consists of four teams who had a combined 9-38 record in 2009. Four-win Arkansas State had the most with four.

Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 3-9, 1-7 (10th) / 4-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2008 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City / 3-9, 1-7 (11th)
2007 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City / 7-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Insight
2006 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-9th) / 5-7, 3-5 (T-6th)
2005 Prediction / actual: 3-8, 1-7 (11th) / 4-7, 1-7 (10th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th) / 2-10, 1-7 (T-9th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 2-6 (T-10th) / 5-6, 4-4 (T-4th)

Returning Starters: 8 offense, 4 defense, 2 kickers

Key Returnees: QB Ben Chappell, RB Darius Willis, WR Tandon Doss, LB Tyler Replogle

Key Losses: LT Rodger Saffold, DE Greg Middleton, DE Jamie Kirlew, LB Will Patterson, CB Ray Fisher, S Nick Polk

Prediction ... The Hoosiers might have the biggest joke of a non-conference slate in the history of the conference! The trouble is, where will the other two requisite wins come from? Indiana returns a bevy of nice skill players on offense but must replace some key players from the front line. The defense is more or less a total rebuild, with some long-term mainstays moving on. I expect a torrid start, including a very rare win over Michigan, but after that, it'll be slim pickings en route to another losing season in Bloomington.

OOC: 4-0 (what, they couldn't schedule Bloomington High too?)
B10: 1-7 (lone win over Michigan)
Overall: 5-7, T-10th in the conference

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Team: Illinois Fighting Illini

Tidbits ... Illinois continued the trend started in 2001 - a hard, five-year fall following a surprise BCS berth. If the trend continues, the Illini can expect three more tough seasons - and a brand new coaching staff.

Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th), Alamo / 3-9, 2-6 (9th)
2008 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (T-2nd), Capital One / 5-7, 3-5 (T-6th)
2007 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-10th) / 9-4, 6-2 (T-2nd) - Rose Bowl
2006 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 2-6 (8th) / 2-10, 1-7 (T-10th)
2005 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 2-6 (10th) / 2-9, 0-8 (11th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 3-5 (T-7th) / 1-11, 0-8 (11th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th) / 5-7, 4-4 (T-5th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 6-5, 3-5 (T-7th) / 10-2, 7-1 (1st)

Returning Starters: 5 offense, 7 defense, 2 kickers

Key Returnees: RB Mikel Leshoure, RB Jason Ford, DE Clay Nurse, DT Corey Liuget, LB Martez Wilson

Key Losses: QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn, S Garrett Edwards

Prediction ... Illinois, as you can see above, routinely gives me more fits than anyone when it comes to predicitons. Ron Zook overhauled his coaching staff in hopes of saving his hide, so we shall see if that comes to fruition. On paper, the offense doesn't invoke fear in anyone. The tailbacks are very good, but the passing game could be quite iffy. The defense will be solid with a good chunk of the front seven returning. Both specialists remain in tact as well. This is move it or lose it time for Zook. The schedule is not all that easy either, including the OOC...

OOC: 2-2 (wins over directional Illinois schools)
B10: 2-6 (wins over Indiana and Minnesota)
Overall: 4-8, T-8th in the conference

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Team: Michigan Wolverines

Tidbits … The last time Michigan had three straight losing seasons? NEVER! The last time the Wolverines lost three straight to in-state rival Michigan State? 1965-67 and shortly after a coach by the name of Bo Schembecler arrived on the scene.

Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City / 5-7, 1-7 (T-10th), None
2008 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Champs / 3-9, 2-6 (T-9th), None
2007 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), BCS / 9-4, 6-2 (T-2nd), Capital One
2006 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 6-2 (T-3rd), Outback / 11-2, 7-1 (T-2nd), Rose
2005 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (T-1st), BCS / 7-5, 5-3 (T-3rd), Alamo
2004 Prediction / actual: 10-1, 7-1 (T-1st), BCS / 9-3, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose
2003 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-2nd) / 10-3, 7-1 (1st)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th) / 10-3, 6-2 (3rd)
2001 Prediction / actual: 8-3, 6-2 (T-1st) / 8-4, 6-2 (2nd)

Returning Starters: 10 offense, 8 defense, 0 kickers

Key Returnees: QB Tate Forcier, QB Denard Robinson, WR Ray Roundtree, C David Molk, LB Obi Ezeh, LB Jonas Moutan

Key Losses: RB Brandon Minor, RB Carlos Brown, WR Greg Mathews, DE Brandon Graham, P Zoltan Mesko

Prediction ... This is a make it or break it year for Rich Rodriguez. Michigan has had two-straight losing seasons and is in serious jeopardy of an unprecedented third-straight. A boat load of starters return on both sides of the ball but the team struggled to score as the season wore on and the defense was abysmal. The good news is, the depth on the offensive side is getting better and Michigan should be more consistent. The bad news is the defense could be worse. It is fast, but small and that just doesn't bode well in the Big Ten. Losing both kickers always hurts more than the casual fan might consider as well. There are no breaks with the schedule and not the gimmes out of conference that the maize and blue might need for bowl-type success...

OOC: 3-1 (at Notre Dame is the only loss, but don't sleep on UConn)
B10: 2-6 (wins over Illinois and Purdue)
Overall: 5-7, T-8th in the conference