Big Ten Football Previews – 2010 (continued)
Editor's Note: Here are the remaining previews ... Get Gamm starts next week!
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Team: Wisconsin Badgers
Tidbits … Wisconsin has yet another big time back in the Heisman race in John Clay. And after a great start and a mediocre middle, Coach Bielema has re-discovered his recipe for success, going 10-3 in 2009 and laying the foundation for what many believe will be a big 2010.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Insight / 10-3, 5-3 (T-4th), Champs
2008 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-2nd), Alamo / 7-6, 3-5 (T-6th), Champs
2007 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose / 9-4, 5-3 (4th), Outback
2006 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th), Alamo / 12-1, 7-1 (T-2nd), Capital One
2005 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Alamo / 10-3, 5-3 (T-3rd), Capital One
2004 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Alamo / 9-3, 6-2 (3rd), Outback
2003 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-2nd) / 7-6, 4-4 (T-7th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-5, 4-4 (T-6th) / 8-6, 2-6 (T-8th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (4th) / 5-7, 3-5 (T-8th)
Returning Starters: 10 offense, 6 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Scott Tolzien, RB John Clay, WR Nick Toon, DE J.J. Watt, LB Culmer St. Jean, K Phillip Welch
Key Losses: TE Garrett Graham, DE O'Brien Schofield, LB Jaevery McFadden, S Chris Maragos
Prediction ... I'm a traditionalist in the sense that I like a Big Ten offense that can pound you but also make you pay with a great pass call at the right time. I'm not a fan of the spread, the spread option or an all run or all pass offense... which is why I like Wisconsin this year. This might be the best top to bottom attack the Badgers have ever had. A weapon like Clay, a solid, heady QB, some great receivers. The question is the defense. The Badgers usually have at least a sound defense but if the D can match the O, look out Big Ten. The kicking game is sound and the schedule isn't scary - except the back to back OSU and Iowa games. UW heads back to Orlando again, but not for the Champs Bowl this time...
OOC: 4-0 (Yawn. Big yawn - unless the Badgers' bus gets stuck at a casino in week one!)
B10: 6-2 (Plenty of tough games but October 16 and 23 are the difference between the Capital One or Rose Bowl)
Overall: 10-2, 3rd in the conference, Capital One Bowl
- - - - - - - - - -
Team: Iowa Hawkeyes
Tidbits ... Iowa is a lot like Michigan State in that it flies highest when off the radar - see 2006 as an example of hype and fizzle. That said, the 21st century trend is three year cycles of greatness... this would be year three in a current cycle (11, 10 and 10 wins from 02-04; 9 and 11 wins the past two seasons)
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (T-4th) Capital One/ 11-2, 6-2 (T-2nd), Orange
2008 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 2-6 (T-9th) / 9-4, 5-3 (T-4th), Outback
2007 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th), Champs / 6-6, 4-4 (T-5th)
2006 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose / 6-7, 2-6 (T-8th), Alamo
2005 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (T-1st), BCS / 7-5, 5-3 (T-3rd), Outback
2004 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (3rd), Capital One / 10-2, 7-1 (T-1st), Capital One
2003 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 10-3, 5-3 (T-4th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th) / 11-2, 8-0 (T-1st)
2001 Prediction / actual: 5-6, 2-6 (T-10th) / 7-5, 4-4 (T-4th)
Returning Starters: 6 offense, 8 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Ricky Stanzi, WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, RB Adam Robinson, DE Adrian Clayborn, DB Tyler Sash
Key Losses: TE Tony Moeaki, LB A.J. Edds, LB Pat Angerer, DB Amari Spievey
Prediction ... I love Iowa's schedule. Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State all come to Iowa City. Michigan is down. Arizona is the only real tough OOC slate. The offense will be good. The defense is always great. Iowa won a bunch of close games last year and with what returns, that means the Hawkeyes know how to win even more so than most opponents. The offense will be sound if not exciting and the defense will keep them in every game. Returning both kickers is also a boon.
OOC: 3-1 (Arizona stings Iowa in the desert)
B10: 7-1 (OSU nips Iowa again)
Overall: 10-2, 2nd in the conference, Rose Bowl
- - - - - - - - - -
Team: Ohio State Buckeyes
Tidbits: The Buckeyes have only failed to win double digit games twice since I started prognosticating the Big Ten. The scarlet and gray have won five-straight Big Ten titles, absolutely owned Michigan and are poised to make another run at the BCS Title. Fear the sweater vest!
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 7-1 (T-1st), BCS Bowl / 11-2, 7-1 (1st) - Rose
2008 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 8-0 (1st) - BCS Title Game / 10-3, 7-1 (T-1st) - Fiesta Bowl
2007 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (3rd) - Captial One / 11-2, 7-1 (1st), BCS Title Game
2006 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), BCS / 12-1, 8-0 (1st), BCS Title Game
2005 Prediction / actual: 8-3, 6-2 (T-1st), Capital One / 10-2, 7-1 (T-1st), Fiesta
2004 Prediction / actual: 10-1, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose / 8-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Alamo
2003 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (1st) / 11-2, 6-2 (T-2nd)
2002 Prediction / actual: 11-2, 6-2 (T-1st) / 14-0, 8-0 (T-1st), National Champs
2001 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th) / 7-5, 5-3 (3rd)
Returning Starters: 9 offense, 5 defense, 0 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Terrelle Pryor, RB Dan Herron, WR Dane Sanzenbacher, DL Cameron Heyward, LB Ross Homan, DB Chemdi Chekwa
Key Losses: DL Thaddeus Gibson, DL Doug Worthington, DB Kurt Coleman, P Aaron Pettrey
Prediction: It is awfully tough to pick against Ohio State, even with the Big Ten seemingly on the rise. Pryor enters year three and I think he still has plenty to prove as a signal caller and leader. Pay no mind to any personnel loses, OSU goes three deep everywhere. The defense will take some time to come around - four quarters anyway - and the kicking game is a possible question, but like I said, who bets against five-time defending champions?
OOC: 4-0 (Miami is the best test)
B10: 8-0 (Sixth straight title)
Overall: 12-0, 1st - BCS Title Game Berth
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
Friday, August 27, 2010
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Big Ten Football Previews – 2010 (continued)
Editor's Note: Here are the next set of previews ... the rest will follow as time allows.
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Team: Penn State Nittany Lions
Tidbits: Penn State has had double digit wins 21 times in Joe Paterno's tenure. The 159 points allowed last year was the lowest since 1986, when the Nittany Lions won the National Title.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose / 11-2, 6-2 (T-2nd), Capital One
2008 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (T-2nd), BCS Berth / 11-2, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose
2007 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (T-4th), Outback / 9-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Alamo
2006 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 6-2 (T-3rd), Capital One / 9-4, 5-3 (T-4th), Outback
2005 Prediction / actual: 6-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Music City / 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), Orange
2004 Prediction / actual: 6-5, 4-4 (T-5th), Music City / 4-7, 2-6 (9th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 4-4 (T-5th) / 3-9, 1-7 (T-9th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 6-2 (T-1st) / 9-4, 5-3 (4th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 5-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 5-6, 4-4 (T-4th)
Returning Starters: 7 offense, 5 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: RB Evan Royster, C Stefen Wisniewski, WR Derek Moye, WR Graham Zug, S Nick Sukay
Key Losses: QB Daryll Clark, TE Andrew Quarless, DT Jared Odrick, LB Sean Lee, LB Navorro Bowman
Prediction: Penn State will be an interesting team to watch in 2010. There is one "money" OOC tilt (at Alabama) and tough revenge trips to Iowa and Ohio State on tap. Evan Royster is the top tailback in the league, the wide receiving corps is dangerous and the interior of the line is sound. But the Nittany Lions must break in a new signal caller and a pair of tackles. Never underestimate the loss of a veteran quarterback. Defensively, Penn State loses even more starters including the entire linebacking corps. Now this is Linebacker U so expect guys like Chris Colasanti to step right up, but the talent losses might be too much for this team to perform as predicted by so many. I think Penn State takes a step back in 2010 in preparation for a fantastic 2012 - which I predict will be Paterno's last in Happy Valley...
OOC: 3-1 (The trip to Alabama could make or break the season, and don't sleep on Temple)
B10: 5-3 (Revenge will not be found in Iowa City or Columbus and Penn State finally loses at home against the Spartans)
Overall: 8-4, T-4th, Gator Bowl Berth
- - - - - - - - - -
Team: Michigan State Spartans
Tidbits ... The Spartans' recent bowl streak is the first three season run since Nick Saban took over in the mid 90s. The last time the Spartans missed the mark on a solid preseason Big Ten ranking and lost as many games in the waning moments was 1998 - the year before once of the best seasons in program history.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (3rd), Outback / 6-7, 4-4 (T-6th), Alamo
2008 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-2nd), Outback / 9-4, 6-2 (3rd), Capital One
2007 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Insight / 7-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Champs
2006 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (5th), Champs / 4-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2005 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 5-3 (4th), Sun / 5-6, 2-6 (9th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 4-4 (T-5th), Sun / 5-7, 4-4 (T-5th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 8-5, 5-3 (T-4th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-1st) / 4-8, 2-6 (T-8th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 8-3, 6-2 (T-1st) / 7-5, 3-5 (T-8th)
Returning Starters: 7 offense, 6 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: QB Kirk Cousins, RB Larry Caper, WR Keshawn Martin, LG Joel Foreman, LB Greg Jones, LB Eric Gordon, P Aaron Bates
Key Losses: C Joel Nitchman, WR Blair White, NT Oren Wilson, S Danny Fortener, PK Brett Swenson
Prediction ... Michigan State is back in the sleeper role and that is one that frankly, suits the Spartans just fine. A season ago, the QB position was unsettled. Not this time around. Kirk Cousins is the bona fide leader of the offense and the team and he has an offense loaded with weapons, including former QB Keith Nichol who has moved to wide receiver. The biggest question on offense is the front line. State needs to be able to run the ball better this season. Defensively, you'll be hard pressed to find a better corps of linebackers in the nation. And that includes two impact freshmen. The front line is solid but not spectacular. The secondary needs to tighten up and is quite young. Don't underestimate the loss of Brett Swenson. He was the best kicker in a long line of storied MSU booters. Still, the schedule sets up nicely for MSU to do some very nice things...
OOC: 4-0 (Nothing overly scary here)
B10: 5-3 (Wisconsin, Northwestern and Iowa prove to be the road blocks to a phenominal season)
Overall: 9-3, T-4th, Outback Bowl Berth
Editor's Note: Here are the next set of previews ... the rest will follow as time allows.
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Team: Penn State Nittany Lions
Tidbits: Penn State has had double digit wins 21 times in Joe Paterno's tenure. The 159 points allowed last year was the lowest since 1986, when the Nittany Lions won the National Title.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose / 11-2, 6-2 (T-2nd), Capital One
2008 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (T-2nd), BCS Berth / 11-2, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose
2007 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (T-4th), Outback / 9-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Alamo
2006 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 6-2 (T-3rd), Capital One / 9-4, 5-3 (T-4th), Outback
2005 Prediction / actual: 6-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Music City / 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), Orange
2004 Prediction / actual: 6-5, 4-4 (T-5th), Music City / 4-7, 2-6 (9th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 4-4 (T-5th) / 3-9, 1-7 (T-9th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 6-2 (T-1st) / 9-4, 5-3 (4th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 5-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 5-6, 4-4 (T-4th)
Returning Starters: 7 offense, 5 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: RB Evan Royster, C Stefen Wisniewski, WR Derek Moye, WR Graham Zug, S Nick Sukay
Key Losses: QB Daryll Clark, TE Andrew Quarless, DT Jared Odrick, LB Sean Lee, LB Navorro Bowman
Prediction: Penn State will be an interesting team to watch in 2010. There is one "money" OOC tilt (at Alabama) and tough revenge trips to Iowa and Ohio State on tap. Evan Royster is the top tailback in the league, the wide receiving corps is dangerous and the interior of the line is sound. But the Nittany Lions must break in a new signal caller and a pair of tackles. Never underestimate the loss of a veteran quarterback. Defensively, Penn State loses even more starters including the entire linebacking corps. Now this is Linebacker U so expect guys like Chris Colasanti to step right up, but the talent losses might be too much for this team to perform as predicted by so many. I think Penn State takes a step back in 2010 in preparation for a fantastic 2012 - which I predict will be Paterno's last in Happy Valley...
OOC: 3-1 (The trip to Alabama could make or break the season, and don't sleep on Temple)
B10: 5-3 (Revenge will not be found in Iowa City or Columbus and Penn State finally loses at home against the Spartans)
Overall: 8-4, T-4th, Gator Bowl Berth
- - - - - - - - - -
Team: Michigan State Spartans
Tidbits ... The Spartans' recent bowl streak is the first three season run since Nick Saban took over in the mid 90s. The last time the Spartans missed the mark on a solid preseason Big Ten ranking and lost as many games in the waning moments was 1998 - the year before once of the best seasons in program history.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (3rd), Outback / 6-7, 4-4 (T-6th), Alamo
2008 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-2nd), Outback / 9-4, 6-2 (3rd), Capital One
2007 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Insight / 7-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Champs
2006 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (5th), Champs / 4-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2005 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 5-3 (4th), Sun / 5-6, 2-6 (9th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 4-4 (T-5th), Sun / 5-7, 4-4 (T-5th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 8-5, 5-3 (T-4th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-1st) / 4-8, 2-6 (T-8th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 8-3, 6-2 (T-1st) / 7-5, 3-5 (T-8th)
Returning Starters: 7 offense, 6 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: QB Kirk Cousins, RB Larry Caper, WR Keshawn Martin, LG Joel Foreman, LB Greg Jones, LB Eric Gordon, P Aaron Bates
Key Losses: C Joel Nitchman, WR Blair White, NT Oren Wilson, S Danny Fortener, PK Brett Swenson
Prediction ... Michigan State is back in the sleeper role and that is one that frankly, suits the Spartans just fine. A season ago, the QB position was unsettled. Not this time around. Kirk Cousins is the bona fide leader of the offense and the team and he has an offense loaded with weapons, including former QB Keith Nichol who has moved to wide receiver. The biggest question on offense is the front line. State needs to be able to run the ball better this season. Defensively, you'll be hard pressed to find a better corps of linebackers in the nation. And that includes two impact freshmen. The front line is solid but not spectacular. The secondary needs to tighten up and is quite young. Don't underestimate the loss of Brett Swenson. He was the best kicker in a long line of storied MSU booters. Still, the schedule sets up nicely for MSU to do some very nice things...
OOC: 4-0 (Nothing overly scary here)
B10: 5-3 (Wisconsin, Northwestern and Iowa prove to be the road blocks to a phenominal season)
Overall: 9-3, T-4th, Outback Bowl Berth
Friday, August 06, 2010
Big Ten Football Previews – 2010 (continued)
Editor's Note: Here are the next set of previews ... the rest will follow as time allows.
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Team: Purdue Boilermakers
Tidbits … The last time Purdue came off a 5-win season, the Boilermakers won 8 games and went bowling. This is the first time since 1995 and 1996 that the gold and black have put up consecutive losing seasons.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 2-10, 0-8 (11th) / 5-7, 4-4 (T-6th)
2008 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 4-4 (6th), Insight / 4-8, 2-6 (T-9th)
2007 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th), Alamo / 8-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City
2006 Prediction / actual: 8-5, 4-4 (T-6th), Insight / 8-6, 5-3 (T-4th), Champs
2005 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Outback / 5-6, 3-5 (8th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 5-3 (4th), Outback / 7-5, 4-4 (T-5th), Sun
2003 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-2nd) / 9-4, 6-2 (T-2nd)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th) / 7-6, 4-4 (T-5th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (T-1st) / 6-6, 4-4 (T-4th
Returning Starters: 6 offense, 6 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: WR Keith Smith, TE Kyle Adams, DE Ryan Kerrigan, DT Kawann Short, K Carson Wiggs,
Key Losses: QB Joey Elliott, FS Torri Williams, DT Mike Neal, CB Brandon King
Prediction ... Purdue is a team that many preseason magazines have squarely in the middle of the pack. I can't disagree, but there are some question marks with the running game (due to all of the spring injuries) and transfer Robert Marve has tremendous upside, but I've seen plenty of heralded transfers turn to duds. This is the first time I can remember that the Boilermakers open with Notre Dame. That will be a key game for both. Things ease up from there in the OOC but while Purdue avoids Iowa, the road gets much tougher when the Big Ten season calls. I like this team to be able to do better than I predict and certainly not any worse, but there are too many questions at this time for me to go any higher (the secondary comes to mind).
OOC: 4-0 (ND win pushes PU to a great start)
B10: 3-5 (wins over Minnesota, Illinois and Indiana)
Overall: 7-5, 7th in the conference, Texas Bowl bid
- - - - - - - - - -
Team: Northwestern Wildcats
Tidbits … Northwestern is on a three-year run of seasons with a .500 or better record. That's the longest such run since the late 1920's / early 1930's. The 17 wins over the last two seasons is the best since NU won 19 games from 1995-96.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction/actual: 7-5, 3-5 (T-7th_ - At Large Bid / 8-5, 5-3 (T-4th) - Outback Bowl
2008 Prediction/actual: 6-6, 2-6 (T-9th) - At Large Bid / 9-4, 5-3 (T-4th) - Alamo Bowl
2007 Prediction/actual: 5-7, 2-6 (9th) / 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th)
2006 Prediction/actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-9th) / 4-8, 2-6 (T-8th)
2005 Prediction/actual: 5-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 7-5, 5-3 (T-3rd) – Sun Bowl
2004 Prediction/actual: 5-7, 2-6 (9th) / 6-6, 5-3 (4th)
2003 Prediction/actual: 3-9, 0-8 (11th) / 6-7, 4-4 (T-7th) – Motor City Bowl
2002 Prediction/actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-6th) / 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th)
2001 Prediction/actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th) / 4-7, 2-6 (T-10th)
Returning Starters: 8 offense, 6 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: QB Dan Persa, SB Drake Dunsmore, WR Sidney Stewart, FS Brian Peters, LB Quentin Davie, P/K Stefan Demos
Key Losses: QB Mike Kafka, DE Corey Wootton, FS Brad Phillips, SS Brendan Smith
Prediction ... Northwestern was a pleasant surprise last year, rattling off some surprise wins over ranked foes and playing in maybe the best bowl game of the season. There is a fair amount of turnover at key positions, but the return of the entire offensive front should allow for some solid plug and play at skill positions. The secondary could be sketchy, but the linebacking corps is solid and Stefan Demos is a great weapon as well. The OOC slate is pretty easy, though don't sleep on Central Michigan. I see overall improvement in the record from last year and for the Wildcats to take true advantage for not having to play Ohio State or Penn State.
OOC: 4-0 (no one here strikes fear into anyone!)
B10: 4-4 (wins over Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana and Illinois)
Overall: 8-4, 6th in the conference, Insight bowl berth
Editor's Note: Here are the next set of previews ... the rest will follow as time allows.
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Team: Purdue Boilermakers
Tidbits … The last time Purdue came off a 5-win season, the Boilermakers won 8 games and went bowling. This is the first time since 1995 and 1996 that the gold and black have put up consecutive losing seasons.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 2-10, 0-8 (11th) / 5-7, 4-4 (T-6th)
2008 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 4-4 (6th), Insight / 4-8, 2-6 (T-9th)
2007 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th), Alamo / 8-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City
2006 Prediction / actual: 8-5, 4-4 (T-6th), Insight / 8-6, 5-3 (T-4th), Champs
2005 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Outback / 5-6, 3-5 (8th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 5-3 (4th), Outback / 7-5, 4-4 (T-5th), Sun
2003 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-2nd) / 9-4, 6-2 (T-2nd)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th) / 7-6, 4-4 (T-5th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (T-1st) / 6-6, 4-4 (T-4th
Returning Starters: 6 offense, 6 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: WR Keith Smith, TE Kyle Adams, DE Ryan Kerrigan, DT Kawann Short, K Carson Wiggs,
Key Losses: QB Joey Elliott, FS Torri Williams, DT Mike Neal, CB Brandon King
Prediction ... Purdue is a team that many preseason magazines have squarely in the middle of the pack. I can't disagree, but there are some question marks with the running game (due to all of the spring injuries) and transfer Robert Marve has tremendous upside, but I've seen plenty of heralded transfers turn to duds. This is the first time I can remember that the Boilermakers open with Notre Dame. That will be a key game for both. Things ease up from there in the OOC but while Purdue avoids Iowa, the road gets much tougher when the Big Ten season calls. I like this team to be able to do better than I predict and certainly not any worse, but there are too many questions at this time for me to go any higher (the secondary comes to mind).
OOC: 4-0 (ND win pushes PU to a great start)
B10: 3-5 (wins over Minnesota, Illinois and Indiana)
Overall: 7-5, 7th in the conference, Texas Bowl bid
- - - - - - - - - -
Team: Northwestern Wildcats
Tidbits … Northwestern is on a three-year run of seasons with a .500 or better record. That's the longest such run since the late 1920's / early 1930's. The 17 wins over the last two seasons is the best since NU won 19 games from 1995-96.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction/actual: 7-5, 3-5 (T-7th_ - At Large Bid / 8-5, 5-3 (T-4th) - Outback Bowl
2008 Prediction/actual: 6-6, 2-6 (T-9th) - At Large Bid / 9-4, 5-3 (T-4th) - Alamo Bowl
2007 Prediction/actual: 5-7, 2-6 (9th) / 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th)
2006 Prediction/actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-9th) / 4-8, 2-6 (T-8th)
2005 Prediction/actual: 5-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 7-5, 5-3 (T-3rd) – Sun Bowl
2004 Prediction/actual: 5-7, 2-6 (9th) / 6-6, 5-3 (4th)
2003 Prediction/actual: 3-9, 0-8 (11th) / 6-7, 4-4 (T-7th) – Motor City Bowl
2002 Prediction/actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-6th) / 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th)
2001 Prediction/actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th) / 4-7, 2-6 (T-10th)
Returning Starters: 8 offense, 6 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: QB Dan Persa, SB Drake Dunsmore, WR Sidney Stewart, FS Brian Peters, LB Quentin Davie, P/K Stefan Demos
Key Losses: QB Mike Kafka, DE Corey Wootton, FS Brad Phillips, SS Brendan Smith
Prediction ... Northwestern was a pleasant surprise last year, rattling off some surprise wins over ranked foes and playing in maybe the best bowl game of the season. There is a fair amount of turnover at key positions, but the return of the entire offensive front should allow for some solid plug and play at skill positions. The secondary could be sketchy, but the linebacking corps is solid and Stefan Demos is a great weapon as well. The OOC slate is pretty easy, though don't sleep on Central Michigan. I see overall improvement in the record from last year and for the Wildcats to take true advantage for not having to play Ohio State or Penn State.
OOC: 4-0 (no one here strikes fear into anyone!)
B10: 4-4 (wins over Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana and Illinois)
Overall: 8-4, 6th in the conference, Insight bowl berth
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Big Ten Football Previews – 2010
Editor's Note: So many things to do, so little time to do it. I know I've gone from writing novel-like predictions to shorter essays and this year - my tenth of providing preseason insights - I'm going Cliffs Notes on you. Here are previews for the bottom four... the others will follow as time allows.
Our annual prognostication contest will happen as always. In the meantime, digest, comment, disagree, etc. on my worst to first order and predictions. Football season is just a few weeks away!
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Team: Minnesota Golden Gophers
Tidbits ... Minnesota was shut out twice last year, despite putting up more than 20 eight times and greater than 30 points four times.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 4-4 (6th), At Large / 6-7, 3-5 (8th), Insight
2008 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 2-6 (T-9th) / 7-6, 3-5 (T-6th), Insight
2007 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 1-7 (T-10th) / 1-11, 0-8 (11th)
2006 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-9th) / 6-7, 3-5 (T-6th), Insight
2005 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Motor City / 7-5, 4-4 (7th), Music City
2004 Prediction / actual: 6-5, 3-5 (8th), Motor City / 7-5, 3-5 (8th), Music City
2003 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (5th) / 10-3, 5-3 (T-4th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 2-6 (9th) / 8-5, 3-5 (T-7th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 5-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 4-7, 2-6 (T-10th)
Returning Starters: 9 offense, 2 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: QB Adam Weber, QB MarQueis Gray, RB Duane Bennett, WR Troy Stoudermire, K Eric Ellestad
Key Losses: WR Adam Decker, LB Lee Campbell, LB Nate Triplett, CB Marcus Sherels
Prediction ... Minnesota has a sneaky tough OOC slate, headlined by USC. The Golden Gophers are breaking in yet another offensive coordinator and unveiling their fourth offense in as many years. The good news is, nine starters return on that side of the ball. The ugly news is that only two return on the defensive side of the ball and one of those broke an ankle in the spring, while the other was suspended. Both should be back but Minnesota could trot out eleven new starters on defense this fall. Ouch. I see things starting hot - as usual - for this team, but for the natives to get restless as soon as mid-October hits and the plunge begins.
OOC: 3-1 (lone loss comes to USC at home)
B10: 1-7 (lone win over Northwestern)
Overall: 4-8, T-10th in the conference
- - - - - - - - - -
Team: Indiana Hoosiers
Tidbits … Indiana's out of conference schedule consists of four teams who had a combined 9-38 record in 2009. Four-win Arkansas State had the most with four.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 3-9, 1-7 (10th) / 4-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2008 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City / 3-9, 1-7 (11th)
2007 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City / 7-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Insight
2006 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-9th) / 5-7, 3-5 (T-6th)
2005 Prediction / actual: 3-8, 1-7 (11th) / 4-7, 1-7 (10th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th) / 2-10, 1-7 (T-9th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 2-6 (T-10th) / 5-6, 4-4 (T-4th)
Returning Starters: 8 offense, 4 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Ben Chappell, RB Darius Willis, WR Tandon Doss, LB Tyler Replogle
Key Losses: LT Rodger Saffold, DE Greg Middleton, DE Jamie Kirlew, LB Will Patterson, CB Ray Fisher, S Nick Polk
Prediction ... The Hoosiers might have the biggest joke of a non-conference slate in the history of the conference! The trouble is, where will the other two requisite wins come from? Indiana returns a bevy of nice skill players on offense but must replace some key players from the front line. The defense is more or less a total rebuild, with some long-term mainstays moving on. I expect a torrid start, including a very rare win over Michigan, but after that, it'll be slim pickings en route to another losing season in Bloomington.
OOC: 4-0 (what, they couldn't schedule Bloomington High too?)
B10: 1-7 (lone win over Michigan)
Overall: 5-7, T-10th in the conference
- - - - - - - - - -
Team: Illinois Fighting Illini
Tidbits ... Illinois continued the trend started in 2001 - a hard, five-year fall following a surprise BCS berth. If the trend continues, the Illini can expect three more tough seasons - and a brand new coaching staff.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th), Alamo / 3-9, 2-6 (9th)
2008 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (T-2nd), Capital One / 5-7, 3-5 (T-6th)
2007 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-10th) / 9-4, 6-2 (T-2nd) - Rose Bowl
2006 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 2-6 (8th) / 2-10, 1-7 (T-10th)
2005 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 2-6 (10th) / 2-9, 0-8 (11th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 3-5 (T-7th) / 1-11, 0-8 (11th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th) / 5-7, 4-4 (T-5th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 6-5, 3-5 (T-7th) / 10-2, 7-1 (1st)
Returning Starters: 5 offense, 7 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: RB Mikel Leshoure, RB Jason Ford, DE Clay Nurse, DT Corey Liuget, LB Martez Wilson
Key Losses: QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn, S Garrett Edwards
Prediction ... Illinois, as you can see above, routinely gives me more fits than anyone when it comes to predicitons. Ron Zook overhauled his coaching staff in hopes of saving his hide, so we shall see if that comes to fruition. On paper, the offense doesn't invoke fear in anyone. The tailbacks are very good, but the passing game could be quite iffy. The defense will be solid with a good chunk of the front seven returning. Both specialists remain in tact as well. This is move it or lose it time for Zook. The schedule is not all that easy either, including the OOC...
OOC: 2-2 (wins over directional Illinois schools)
B10: 2-6 (wins over Indiana and Minnesota)
Overall: 4-8, T-8th in the conference
- - - - - - - - - -
Team: Michigan Wolverines
Tidbits … The last time Michigan had three straight losing seasons? NEVER! The last time the Wolverines lost three straight to in-state rival Michigan State? 1965-67 and shortly after a coach by the name of Bo Schembecler arrived on the scene.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City / 5-7, 1-7 (T-10th), None
2008 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Champs / 3-9, 2-6 (T-9th), None
2007 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), BCS / 9-4, 6-2 (T-2nd), Capital One
2006 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 6-2 (T-3rd), Outback / 11-2, 7-1 (T-2nd), Rose
2005 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (T-1st), BCS / 7-5, 5-3 (T-3rd), Alamo
2004 Prediction / actual: 10-1, 7-1 (T-1st), BCS / 9-3, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose
2003 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-2nd) / 10-3, 7-1 (1st)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th) / 10-3, 6-2 (3rd)
2001 Prediction / actual: 8-3, 6-2 (T-1st) / 8-4, 6-2 (2nd)
Returning Starters: 10 offense, 8 defense, 0 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Tate Forcier, QB Denard Robinson, WR Ray Roundtree, C David Molk, LB Obi Ezeh, LB Jonas Moutan
Key Losses: RB Brandon Minor, RB Carlos Brown, WR Greg Mathews, DE Brandon Graham, P Zoltan Mesko
Prediction ... This is a make it or break it year for Rich Rodriguez. Michigan has had two-straight losing seasons and is in serious jeopardy of an unprecedented third-straight. A boat load of starters return on both sides of the ball but the team struggled to score as the season wore on and the defense was abysmal. The good news is, the depth on the offensive side is getting better and Michigan should be more consistent. The bad news is the defense could be worse. It is fast, but small and that just doesn't bode well in the Big Ten. Losing both kickers always hurts more than the casual fan might consider as well. There are no breaks with the schedule and not the gimmes out of conference that the maize and blue might need for bowl-type success...
OOC: 3-1 (at Notre Dame is the only loss, but don't sleep on UConn)
B10: 2-6 (wins over Illinois and Purdue)
Overall: 5-7, T-8th in the conference
Editor's Note: So many things to do, so little time to do it. I know I've gone from writing novel-like predictions to shorter essays and this year - my tenth of providing preseason insights - I'm going Cliffs Notes on you. Here are previews for the bottom four... the others will follow as time allows.
Our annual prognostication contest will happen as always. In the meantime, digest, comment, disagree, etc. on my worst to first order and predictions. Football season is just a few weeks away!
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Team: Minnesota Golden Gophers
Tidbits ... Minnesota was shut out twice last year, despite putting up more than 20 eight times and greater than 30 points four times.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 4-4 (6th), At Large / 6-7, 3-5 (8th), Insight
2008 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 2-6 (T-9th) / 7-6, 3-5 (T-6th), Insight
2007 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 1-7 (T-10th) / 1-11, 0-8 (11th)
2006 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-9th) / 6-7, 3-5 (T-6th), Insight
2005 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Motor City / 7-5, 4-4 (7th), Music City
2004 Prediction / actual: 6-5, 3-5 (8th), Motor City / 7-5, 3-5 (8th), Music City
2003 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (5th) / 10-3, 5-3 (T-4th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 2-6 (9th) / 8-5, 3-5 (T-7th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 5-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 4-7, 2-6 (T-10th)
Returning Starters: 9 offense, 2 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: QB Adam Weber, QB MarQueis Gray, RB Duane Bennett, WR Troy Stoudermire, K Eric Ellestad
Key Losses: WR Adam Decker, LB Lee Campbell, LB Nate Triplett, CB Marcus Sherels
Prediction ... Minnesota has a sneaky tough OOC slate, headlined by USC. The Golden Gophers are breaking in yet another offensive coordinator and unveiling their fourth offense in as many years. The good news is, nine starters return on that side of the ball. The ugly news is that only two return on the defensive side of the ball and one of those broke an ankle in the spring, while the other was suspended. Both should be back but Minnesota could trot out eleven new starters on defense this fall. Ouch. I see things starting hot - as usual - for this team, but for the natives to get restless as soon as mid-October hits and the plunge begins.
OOC: 3-1 (lone loss comes to USC at home)
B10: 1-7 (lone win over Northwestern)
Overall: 4-8, T-10th in the conference
- - - - - - - - - -
Team: Indiana Hoosiers
Tidbits … Indiana's out of conference schedule consists of four teams who had a combined 9-38 record in 2009. Four-win Arkansas State had the most with four.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 3-9, 1-7 (10th) / 4-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2008 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City / 3-9, 1-7 (11th)
2007 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City / 7-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Insight
2006 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-9th) / 5-7, 3-5 (T-6th)
2005 Prediction / actual: 3-8, 1-7 (11th) / 4-7, 1-7 (10th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th) / 2-10, 1-7 (T-9th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 2-6 (T-10th) / 5-6, 4-4 (T-4th)
Returning Starters: 8 offense, 4 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Ben Chappell, RB Darius Willis, WR Tandon Doss, LB Tyler Replogle
Key Losses: LT Rodger Saffold, DE Greg Middleton, DE Jamie Kirlew, LB Will Patterson, CB Ray Fisher, S Nick Polk
Prediction ... The Hoosiers might have the biggest joke of a non-conference slate in the history of the conference! The trouble is, where will the other two requisite wins come from? Indiana returns a bevy of nice skill players on offense but must replace some key players from the front line. The defense is more or less a total rebuild, with some long-term mainstays moving on. I expect a torrid start, including a very rare win over Michigan, but after that, it'll be slim pickings en route to another losing season in Bloomington.
OOC: 4-0 (what, they couldn't schedule Bloomington High too?)
B10: 1-7 (lone win over Michigan)
Overall: 5-7, T-10th in the conference
- - - - - - - - - -
Team: Illinois Fighting Illini
Tidbits ... Illinois continued the trend started in 2001 - a hard, five-year fall following a surprise BCS berth. If the trend continues, the Illini can expect three more tough seasons - and a brand new coaching staff.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th), Alamo / 3-9, 2-6 (9th)
2008 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (T-2nd), Capital One / 5-7, 3-5 (T-6th)
2007 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-10th) / 9-4, 6-2 (T-2nd) - Rose Bowl
2006 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 2-6 (8th) / 2-10, 1-7 (T-10th)
2005 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 2-6 (10th) / 2-9, 0-8 (11th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 3-5 (T-7th) / 1-11, 0-8 (11th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th) / 5-7, 4-4 (T-5th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 6-5, 3-5 (T-7th) / 10-2, 7-1 (1st)
Returning Starters: 5 offense, 7 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: RB Mikel Leshoure, RB Jason Ford, DE Clay Nurse, DT Corey Liuget, LB Martez Wilson
Key Losses: QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn, S Garrett Edwards
Prediction ... Illinois, as you can see above, routinely gives me more fits than anyone when it comes to predicitons. Ron Zook overhauled his coaching staff in hopes of saving his hide, so we shall see if that comes to fruition. On paper, the offense doesn't invoke fear in anyone. The tailbacks are very good, but the passing game could be quite iffy. The defense will be solid with a good chunk of the front seven returning. Both specialists remain in tact as well. This is move it or lose it time for Zook. The schedule is not all that easy either, including the OOC...
OOC: 2-2 (wins over directional Illinois schools)
B10: 2-6 (wins over Indiana and Minnesota)
Overall: 4-8, T-8th in the conference
- - - - - - - - - -
Team: Michigan Wolverines
Tidbits … The last time Michigan had three straight losing seasons? NEVER! The last time the Wolverines lost three straight to in-state rival Michigan State? 1965-67 and shortly after a coach by the name of Bo Schembecler arrived on the scene.
Past Predictions/Results:
2009 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City / 5-7, 1-7 (T-10th), None
2008 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Champs / 3-9, 2-6 (T-9th), None
2007 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), BCS / 9-4, 6-2 (T-2nd), Capital One
2006 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 6-2 (T-3rd), Outback / 11-2, 7-1 (T-2nd), Rose
2005 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (T-1st), BCS / 7-5, 5-3 (T-3rd), Alamo
2004 Prediction / actual: 10-1, 7-1 (T-1st), BCS / 9-3, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose
2003 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-2nd) / 10-3, 7-1 (1st)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th) / 10-3, 6-2 (3rd)
2001 Prediction / actual: 8-3, 6-2 (T-1st) / 8-4, 6-2 (2nd)
Returning Starters: 10 offense, 8 defense, 0 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Tate Forcier, QB Denard Robinson, WR Ray Roundtree, C David Molk, LB Obi Ezeh, LB Jonas Moutan
Key Losses: RB Brandon Minor, RB Carlos Brown, WR Greg Mathews, DE Brandon Graham, P Zoltan Mesko
Prediction ... This is a make it or break it year for Rich Rodriguez. Michigan has had two-straight losing seasons and is in serious jeopardy of an unprecedented third-straight. A boat load of starters return on both sides of the ball but the team struggled to score as the season wore on and the defense was abysmal. The good news is, the depth on the offensive side is getting better and Michigan should be more consistent. The bad news is the defense could be worse. It is fast, but small and that just doesn't bode well in the Big Ten. Losing both kickers always hurts more than the casual fan might consider as well. There are no breaks with the schedule and not the gimmes out of conference that the maize and blue might need for bowl-type success...
OOC: 3-1 (at Notre Dame is the only loss, but don't sleep on UConn)
B10: 2-6 (wins over Illinois and Purdue)
Overall: 5-7, T-8th in the conference
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