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Get Gamm - Week Five
Hard to believe we are just one week from the middle of college football's regular season. Big Ten play is underway and folks, it is as open a race as it's been in years. Yes, Ohio State is very impressive right now. Yes, Michigan is on the way back up and will be in the race. Yes, Wisconsin has struggled week-to-week but has won 13-straight and is of course a factor. And don't discount Penn State, Iowa, Purdue, Michigan State, maybe even Illinois. You know it to be the case (wide open year) when the schedule presents some real thought-provoking match-ups that in other years would be slam dunk locks.

Picking with me this week is Dan Meyer. The Purdue fan went a perfect 6-0 for the week and gets the spotlight in this tough week of prognostication...

Schedule:
Indiana at Iowa
Penn State at Illinois
Notre Dame at Purdue
Michigan at Northwestern
Michigan State at Wisconsin (Tiebreaker)
Ohio State at Minnesota

The Picks:

Indiana at Iowa
Indiana's season hit its first speed bump last week in a home loss to Illinois that wasn't even as close as the 13-point final margin. The Hoosiers' defense might be just what the struggling Iowa offense needs, although the Hawkeyes have lost second leading receiver and key return man Andy Brodell to a torn hamstring. Indiana's offense is going to find it really tough to move the ball against the stiffling Iowa defense. Iowa won't score much, but it won't have to. Iowa 19 - Indiana 7.

Dan Meyer says ... Indiana 14 at IOWA 27 - A real key to this game is which Iowa team shows up: the one that battled Wisconsin to the buzzer at Camp Randall or the one that lost to an Iowa State team which might end up with double-digit losses. As Andy pointed out, the questions on the Hawkeyes come from the offense - their D is as good as Ohio State or Penn State. On the other hand, IU continued a bad habit from the last couple of seasons - play well enough early to get Hoosier nation excited, then lay an egg when games matter. 41 points may be too high and it is certainly possible that IU may keep the winning margin under double-digits. A Hoosier upset sets the Cream and Crimson in great shape for bowl-eligibility--but with the Hawks back in beloved Kinnick Stadium I can't see the Hoosiers overcoming the Hawkeye D.

Penn State at Illinois
This is one of the games I was talking about in my open. Penn State is good but got stung by a Michigan team it really should have handled. Illinois looked great at Indiana and has won three games for the first time in a few years. The Illini have plenty of good young offensive weapons and have a nice, balanced attack or at least the potential for one. Penn State has not been able to run the ball at all and that single dimension killed them in the loss at Michigan. Illinois leads the Big Ten in rushing, Penn State leads the Big Ten in stopping the run. Illinois has the home field but Penn State has urgency. I see this as being a great game, a true sign that Illinois football is on the rebound. Penn State 34 - Illinois 31 - in overtime.

Dan Meyer says ... PENN STATE 20 at Illinois 17 - A dangerous pick in what might be the toughest pick of the weekend. Penn State handled early competition well enough, but questions about schedule strength bit them in Ann Arbor. Like Iowa, the questions revolve around offensive production; "Linebacker U" still knows how to play D. Illinois competes with Andy's Spartans as the most improved this year - a road win at IU, another road win at a Syracuse team that might be better than originally thought and a painfully (for Illini fans) close call against present # 20 Missouri in St. Louis. Juice Williams will be exciting - both in helping and perhaps hindering Illini hopes. Special teams probably will matter; so will penalties. I'm going with the team with more experience in big games - but I easily could be wrong.

Notre Dame at Purdue
Michigan State moved the Big Ten to 3-0 versus Notre Dame and there is almost 100% certainty that Purdue will make it 4-0. Unless the Boilermaker offense comes down with serious food poisoning (and if Weis is around, he's more likely to get it by eating all of the food ear-marked for the Boilers) there is almost no chance ND can score an upset. The Irish are improving but are staring an 0-8 start squarely in the face. I love the offensive attack for Purdue, I just would like to see the defense come around and make some plays. This is a good game to build some defensive confidence because PU will need D to challenge for the title this year. Purdue 41 - Notre Dame 23.

Dan Meyer says ... Notre Dame 17 at PURDUE 31 - Purdue's offense has been a thing of wonder during most of the Boilers' 4-0 start; unfortunately, the same cannot be said about its defense. While looking okay in the first two games, Purdue has given up 50 second half points in its two most recent. One pleasant surprise--special teams; Chris Summers has started 4 of 6 after a DREADFUL 2006 and the Boilers already have two kickoff returns for TDs. After an awful first three games, the Irish showed some signs of life in the first half against Michigan State; an encouraging sign for Spartan fans was that the Green and White came back with a solid second half. All in all, when ND has the ball, it will be the stoppable force against the movable object. Painter will have less gaudy numbers than vs. Eastern Illinois or Central Michigan and the Irish will put some points on the board. However, I think/hope that playing at Ross-Ade will keep the Boilers on track.

Michigan at Northwestern
Two teams headed in opposite directions. The Wildcats pitched a shutout of a 1-AA foe in week one, Michigan was handed the upset heard 'round the world by a 1-AA foe. Northwestern came back late to win against Nevada in week two while Michigan played worse in a blowout loss to Oregon. Then the shift... Michigan hammered Notre Dame (who hasn't) and got some confidence. NU failed to score with several chances late and suffered an embarrassing loss to Duke - then riding a 22-game losing streak. Last week, Michigan stymied Penn State while Northwestern more or less failed to show up in a pasting at Ohio State. The only, and I mean only thing going for the Wildcats for this one is that they run the spread offense and the spread makes the M defense sweat profusely. Henne will come in and save the day in a game that will be close only because of the offense NU employs. Michigan 34 - Northwestern 27.

Dan Meyer says ... MICHIGAN 34 at Northwestern 14 - There is legitimate Mike Hart for Heisman talk and rightly so; Hart has walked the walk and talked the talk; showing great leadership as well as quality running. A potential Achilles heel for a Wolverine Big Ten run--placekicking. Maize and Blue fans may longing for the "glory" days of Rivas soon. Meanwhile, Northwestern has more substantive problems - a promising 2-0 has been undone by a stunning home loss to Duke and a full-fledged thrashing by the Buckeyes. The trend continues: Northwestern may not be as bad as their last weeks, but Michigan is DEFINITELY better than their first two weeks.

Michigan State at Wisconsin (Tiebreaker)
This is quietly becoming one of the games of the week in college football. It doesn't have the flash and dash of Oregon and Cal or the on-the-rise intrigue of West Virginia at South Florida (which by the way is in Tampa, clearly not "South" Florida) but it could, make that should, be a slugfest. Wisconsin has won a nation's best 13 in a row. The Spartans have been 4-0 recently (2005) and traditionally start strong. However this is where the wheels seem to fall off. The last time the schools met, MSU pasted an unbeaten Badger squad in East Lansing. Camp Randall is a daunting place to play, but MSU seems focused and ready to exorcise past demons. Both teams can run, both teams can defense. Special teams play and passing game will be the points of differentiation. Wisconsin is a bit better on special teams while State holds an edge in the passing game. If it was in East Lansing, I'd swing a different direction. Wisconsin 16 - Michigan State 13.

Dan Meyer says ... *Michigan State 14 at WISCONSIN 24* - This week's tiebreaker; hence the stars. The Spartans have started very well as alluded to earlier and rest at #23 in the polls. The running attack has been strong and allowed the Spartans to beat a respectable Pittsburgh team, then follow it up with a solid win over the Blustering Irish. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has unsettled its less-macho fans with three wins (UNLV, the Citadel and Iowa) which count for bowl eligibility but won no style points. P.J. Hill has done a mighty job keeping the Badgers on track. My guess - the Badgers will use superior defense and special team play to hold off a game Spartan effort and settle the emotions of their more cautious fans.

Ohio State at Minnesota
Let's summarize. Ohio State's defense is good, damn good. Ohio State's offense is coming along nicely. Minnesota's defense is bad, damn bad. Minnesota's offense is explosive. What does it mean? OSU's offense will pad stats against a defense that couldn't stop a crawling baby. The Buckeyes' defense will slow an offense that hasn't played a team with any defense to a crawl. It's going to be ugly, there is no way around it. Still wish you'd fired Glen Mason? Not so much... Ohio State 44 - Minnesota 10.

Dan Meyer says ... OHIO STATE 38 at Minnesota 14 - Full kudos to Tressel, the Buckeyes have reloaded far faster than expected. The defense was never in doubt, but an offense with early game issues clearly found themselves against Washington and Northwestern. Minnesota, conversely, has been painful to watch; splitting home games in the Metrodome against MAC foes (both OT games), losing to Florida Atlantic and losing to Purdue. The comparative strength of the Gophers is offense and they took a step forward last Saturday night by hanging 28 second-half points on the undefeated Boilers. The Buckeyes only have to worry about distraction and lack of focus. While the Gophers stepped up in the second half last week; they will be hard-pressed to keep from falling back this week.