Monday, October 12, 2009

Mid-season report card
That time of year. Six weeks in, time to grade my preseason prognostications. I had one or two nailed, but am a predictable game or two off here and there. Following is a team by team look at who I had pegged where at this point versus actual and then a look at my preseason prediction versus my new projection with the requisite commentary.

Before that though, check out the 2010-2014 Bowl Pecking Order for the Big Ten. I like picking up the Gator in place of the Champs. More New Year's Day coverge. And we trade one Texas bowl for two. I hope the Insight is planning a move off of NFL Network and onto a major network or that isn't worthy of the 4/5 slot. More here...

Team - actual v. predicted at six weeks / preseason vs. adjusted finish

Illinois - 1-4 (0-3) vs. 3-2 (1-2) / 8-4 (5-3) vs. 3-9 (2-6)
Yuck. I bought the flaming bag of you know what that Zook and Co. were selling over the summer. Off by just two games right now, but Illinois is a program in major disarray.

Indiana - 3-3 (0-2) vs. 2-4 (0-2) / 3-9 (1-7) vs. 4-8 (1-7)
Hoosiers are a game ahead of pace. Thought WMU would bite them. Everything else has been predictable and will remain that way.

Iowa - 6-0 (2-0) vs. 5-1 (1-1) / 9-3 (5-3) vs. 10-2 (6-2)
Iowa is a bona fide contender. The game in Ohio State might be for all the marbles.

Michigan - 4-2 (1-2) vs. 3-3 (1-2) / 6-6 (3-5) vs. 7-5 (3-5)
Not far from my prediction. The win over Notre Dame is the difference. A young team that is improving but the schedule doesn't get much easier down the stretch.

Michigan State - 3-3 (2-1) vs. 5-1 (2-1) / 10-2 (6-2) vs. 8-4 (6-2)
Tough losses to CMU and ND are the difference so far. State has a chance to do some nice things the rest of the way but needs to stay healthy.

Minnesota - 4-2 (2-1) vs. 4-2 (2-1) / 7-5 (4-4) vs. 7-5 (4-4)
Bingo! I nailed one. The Gophers are pretty much who I thought they'd be. Decent, but not great.

Northwestern - 4-2 (1-1) vs. 6-0 (2-0) / 7-5 (3-5) vs. 6-6 (3-5)

I had NU pegged to be better than this so far with a slide late. I still expect a slide and that tough loss to Syracuse might be the difference between bowling and home for the holidays.

Ohio State - 5-1 (3-0) vs. 5-1 (3-0) / 10-2 (7-1) vs. 10-2 (7-1)
Another Bingo. Nailed the Buckeyes, even the "close home loss to a young USC team." OSU will win the conference - again. YAWN.

Penn State - 5-1 (1-1) vs. 6-0 (2-0) / 11-1 (7-1) vs. 10-2 (6-2)
That loss to Iowa is the only thing in the way of a bingo trifecta. But that loss to Iowa will mean that despite a win over OSU in November, PSU will finish one game out of the title.

Purdue - 1-5 (0-2) vs. 2-4 (0-2) / 2-10 (0-8) vs. 1-11 (0-8)
Purdue is about as bad as I thought record-wise, but actually better so far on the field. One win may totally change things, but I'm not sure where that win will come from.

Wisconsin - 5-1 (2-1) vs. 3-3 (0-3) / 7-5 (3-5) vs. 10-2 (6-2)
The team I most vastly under-rated. UW has one more road block (Iowa) otherwise should cruise to a nice bowl berth in sunny central Florida.


Dan Meyer said...

Slightly different approach, simply looking at who goes bowling.

Clinched: Iowa
Highly probable: Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Probable: Michigan, Michigan State
Maybe: Minnesota, Northwestern
Doubtful but not impossible: Indiana
Ain't happening: Illinois, Purdue

Two years ago, no less than 10 teams (all but MN) reached bowl eligibilitya and Northwestern and Iowa sat on the sidelines with six wins. This year, it is possible that only seven will be eligible--thus if two out of IA, PSU, OSU and WI are selected for BCS bowls that the Big Ten will have to forfeit a slot

Buckeye Nation said...

Iowa 23 at Wisconsin 27 (Tiebreaker)
Northwestern 24 at Michigan State 31
Delaware State 17 at Michigan 38
Ohio State 34 at Purdue 10
Minnesota 27 at Penn State 35
Illinois 20 at Indiana 17

Andy Gamm said...

Illinois @ Indiana

Iowa @ Wisconsin

Michigan vs Delaware State

Michigan State vs Northwestern

Minnesota @ Penn State
Penn State

Ohio State @ Purdue
Ohio State

mayo170 said...

Iowa 19 at Wisconsin 21 (Tiebreaker)
Northwestern 32 at Michigan State 34
Delaware State 14 at Michigan 37
Ohio State 27 at Purdue 17
Minnesota 13 at Penn State 27
Illinois 18 at Indiana 21