Big Ten Football Previews – Part X & XI
Editor's Note: These are the last two in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. They've been pared down due to time constraints. Check back next week for another season of Get Gamm!
Team: Ohio State Buckeyes
Tidbits: The Buckeyes have lost three straight bowl games, dating back to a Fiesta Bowl romp over Notre Dame after the 2005 season. OSU's longest bowl losing streak if four, between 1978-80 and 1990-93.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 8-0 (1st) - BCS Title Game / 10-3, 7-1 (T-1st) - Fiesta Bowl
2007 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (3rd) - Captial One / 11-2, 7-1 (1st), BCS Title Game
2006 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), BCS / 12-1, 8-0 (1st), BCS Title Game
2005 Prediction / actual: 8-3, 6-2 (T-1st), Capital One / 10-2, 7-1 (T-1st), Fiesta
2004 Prediction / actual: 10-1, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose / 8-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Alamo
2003 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (1st) / 11-2, 6-2 (T-2nd)
2002 Prediction / actual: 11-2, 6-2 (T-1st) / 14-0, 8-0 (T-1st), National Champs
2001 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th) / 7-5, 5-3 (3rd)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 4 offense, 8 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: QB Terrelle Pryor, RB Dan Herron, DE Thaddeous Gibson, SS Kurt Coleman
Key Losses: RB Beanie Wells, LT Alex Boone, LB James Laurinaitis, CB Malcolm Jenkins, P A.J. Trapasso
Prediction: Ohio State has the potential to return to the pinnacle. But if they do, can they get over the hump? ESPN the magazine recently polled 85 D1 players and they narrowly voted Ohio State (over Notre Dame) as the most overrated program in FBS. Hard to say a team that has lost a grand total of eight games in the past four seasons is overrated, at least in my humble opinion. I made my picks before I knew USC would toss a true freshman QB into the first at the 'shoe, but since I write them in blood...
3-1 OOC (tough loss at home to a young USC team)
7-1 Big Ten (loss in Beaver Stadium)
10-2 Overall, T-1st - BCS bowl berth
Team: Penn State Nittany Lions
Tidbits: The last time Penn State lost back to back bowl games was 1975-76. The Nittany Lions are an outstanding 26-13-2 in bowls, and have played more than half (25) of their bowl games on New Year's Day (or later).
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (T-2nd), BCS Berth / 11-2, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose
2007 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (T-4th), Outback / 9-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Alamo
2006 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 6-2 (T-3rd), Capital One / 9-4, 5-3 (T-4th), Outback
2005 Prediction / actual: 6-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Music City / 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), Orange
2004 Prediction / actual: 6-5, 4-4 (T-5th), Music City / 4-7, 2-6 (9th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 4-4 (T-5th) / 3-9, 1-7 (T-9th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 6-2 (T-1st) / 9-4, 5-3 (4th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 5-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 5-6, 4-4 (T-4th)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 5 offense, 4 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, DT Jared Odrick, LB Sean Lee
Key Losses: WRs - Norwood, Butler, Williams, DE Aaron Maybin, K Kevin Kelly
Prediction: Ohio State has the potential to return to the pinnacle. But if they do, can they get over the hump? ESPN the magazine recently polled 85 D1 players and they narrowly voted Ohio State (over Notre Dame) as the most overrated program in FBS. Hard to say a team that has lost a grand total of eight games in the past four seasons is overrated, at least in my humble opinion. I made my picks before I knew USC would toss a true freshman QB into the first at the 'shoe, but since I write them in blood...
4-0 OOC (Four total jokes - along the lines of the laughable opponents Minnesota took on with Glen Mason at the helm)
7-1 Big Ten (This time a heart breaking field goal in the last game - at Michigan State - keeps the Nits out of the national title hunt)
11-1 Overall, T-1st, Rose Bowl Berth
Friday, August 28, 2009
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Big Ten Football Previews – Part IX
Editor's Note: This is the ninth in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Michigan State Spartans
Tidbits ... No coach has won more games in his first two years at MSU than Mark Dantonio. 2008 the most regular season wins for the program since 1999 and only the third 9+ win season since 1966.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-2nd), Outback / 9-4, 6-2 (3rd), Capital One
2007 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Insight / 7-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Champs
2006 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (5th), Champs / 4-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2005 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 5-3 (4th), Sun / 5-6, 2-6 (9th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 4-4 (T-5th), Sun / 5-7, 4-4 (T-5th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 8-5, 5-3 (T-4th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-1st) / 4-8, 2-6 (T-8th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 8-3, 6-2 (T-1st) / 7-5, 3-5 (T-8th)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 7 offense, 8 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: C Joel Nitchman, WR Blair White, TE Charlie Gantt, DE Trevor Anderson, LB Greg Jones
Key Losses: QB Brian Hoyer, RB Javon Ringer, DT Justin Kershaw, S Otis Wiley
Looking Back ... 2008 has to go down as the year the Spartans started to learn how to finish. After tormenting fans for decades with "close but no cigar" losses or snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (think Michigan game in 2007), the green and white learned how to close out games in '08. The next step is the mantra for 2009 - step up and win the big ones. Seems like a logical next step for a program that was dormant for so long but suddenly is locking up the personnel to compete in the upper tier of the Big Ten for years to come...
Outlook - Offense ... The first thing the outside observer will say is "No way MSU can come close to what it accomplished in 2008 after losing both its quarterback and one of the best tailbacks in school history." I beg to differ. Yes, Brian Hoyer did what his much ballyhooed predecessor (Drew Stanton) could not in leading State to back-to-back winning seasons and bowl berths, but he was a game manager. Michigan State has two signal callers - three when freshman Andrew Maxwell hits camp - that have star potential. Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol shined bright in the spring game and both will play early in the season, perhaps all season long. While there isn't one guy to replace Ringer, there is a log jam of talent in the backfield and frankly, the over-reliance on Ringer last year probably hampered the offense a tad. MSU must replace the right side of the offensive line, but center Joel Nitchman is one of the best in the country. The wide receiving and tight ends corps is deep and talented. Look for State to be better on this side of the ball than a season ago.
Outlook - Defense ... Michigan State should be rock solid on defense this fall, with legitimate next level talent in Greg Jones, Trevor Anderson and Eric Gordon. The secondary returns three starters and loads of depth. The linebackers are among the best units in the Big Ten, boasting talent, depth and some eye-popping freshman talent. The only question is whether or not someone can emerge opposite Trevor Anderson to consistently pressure the quarterback. The defensive tackles are good but young and a bit untested. State should be sound against the run and the pass, but needs to avoid the occasional big play that seems to have been a thorn in the side for the past several years. Look for an aggressive defense with a strong rotation of bodies to provide a unit that will be fresh and solid from opening kickoff to the final gun.
Outlook - Special Teams ... No one ever really talks about the MSU kicking game, but between Brett Swenson and Aaron Bates, the Spartans have one of the best tandems in the nation. Swenson should surpass several school records and Bates has gotten steadily better in his first two seasons. The key will be to find a return game that can add another dimension to this team. There is ample talent, but who will emerge remains in question.
Schedule:
9/5 - MONTANA STATE
9/12 - CENTRAL MICHIGAN
9/19 - at Notre Dame
9/26 - at Wisconsin
10/3 - MICHIGAN
10/10 - at Illinois
10/17 - NORTHWESTERN
10/24 - IOWA
10/31 - at Minnesota
11/7 - WESTERN MICHIGAN
11/14 - at Purdue
11/21 - PENN STATE
Key Games:
9/19 - at Notre Dame, 10/3 - MICHIGAN, 11/21 - PENN STATE
Prediction ... Michigan State has a decent conference schedule, which trades Ohio State for Illinois and Indiana for Minnesota. The Spartans also play Iowa at home again this fall - a nice bonus. The OOC slate is tougher than it looks. Montana State is preseason No. 17 in FCS, while Central and Western Michigan are among the best teams in the MAC. Can that six game South Bend win streak extend to seven? Can State win two straight over Michigan for the first time since the 1960s? Too bad MSU had to delve into 1-AA (FCS), as the Spartans were one of just a few remaining division one schools to not go that route. I expect good things for this team, with more talent than last year in all phases of the game.
OOC: 4-0 (None of them will be easy)
B10: 6-2 (wins over Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa, Purdue and Penn State)
Overall: 10-2, 3rd in the conference, Outback Bowl
Editor's Note: This is the ninth in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Michigan State Spartans
Tidbits ... No coach has won more games in his first two years at MSU than Mark Dantonio. 2008 the most regular season wins for the program since 1999 and only the third 9+ win season since 1966.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-2nd), Outback / 9-4, 6-2 (3rd), Capital One
2007 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Insight / 7-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Champs
2006 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (5th), Champs / 4-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2005 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 5-3 (4th), Sun / 5-6, 2-6 (9th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 4-4 (T-5th), Sun / 5-7, 4-4 (T-5th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 8-5, 5-3 (T-4th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-1st) / 4-8, 2-6 (T-8th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 8-3, 6-2 (T-1st) / 7-5, 3-5 (T-8th)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 7 offense, 8 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: C Joel Nitchman, WR Blair White, TE Charlie Gantt, DE Trevor Anderson, LB Greg Jones
Key Losses: QB Brian Hoyer, RB Javon Ringer, DT Justin Kershaw, S Otis Wiley
Looking Back ... 2008 has to go down as the year the Spartans started to learn how to finish. After tormenting fans for decades with "close but no cigar" losses or snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (think Michigan game in 2007), the green and white learned how to close out games in '08. The next step is the mantra for 2009 - step up and win the big ones. Seems like a logical next step for a program that was dormant for so long but suddenly is locking up the personnel to compete in the upper tier of the Big Ten for years to come...
Outlook - Offense ... The first thing the outside observer will say is "No way MSU can come close to what it accomplished in 2008 after losing both its quarterback and one of the best tailbacks in school history." I beg to differ. Yes, Brian Hoyer did what his much ballyhooed predecessor (Drew Stanton) could not in leading State to back-to-back winning seasons and bowl berths, but he was a game manager. Michigan State has two signal callers - three when freshman Andrew Maxwell hits camp - that have star potential. Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol shined bright in the spring game and both will play early in the season, perhaps all season long. While there isn't one guy to replace Ringer, there is a log jam of talent in the backfield and frankly, the over-reliance on Ringer last year probably hampered the offense a tad. MSU must replace the right side of the offensive line, but center Joel Nitchman is one of the best in the country. The wide receiving and tight ends corps is deep and talented. Look for State to be better on this side of the ball than a season ago.
Outlook - Defense ... Michigan State should be rock solid on defense this fall, with legitimate next level talent in Greg Jones, Trevor Anderson and Eric Gordon. The secondary returns three starters and loads of depth. The linebackers are among the best units in the Big Ten, boasting talent, depth and some eye-popping freshman talent. The only question is whether or not someone can emerge opposite Trevor Anderson to consistently pressure the quarterback. The defensive tackles are good but young and a bit untested. State should be sound against the run and the pass, but needs to avoid the occasional big play that seems to have been a thorn in the side for the past several years. Look for an aggressive defense with a strong rotation of bodies to provide a unit that will be fresh and solid from opening kickoff to the final gun.
Outlook - Special Teams ... No one ever really talks about the MSU kicking game, but between Brett Swenson and Aaron Bates, the Spartans have one of the best tandems in the nation. Swenson should surpass several school records and Bates has gotten steadily better in his first two seasons. The key will be to find a return game that can add another dimension to this team. There is ample talent, but who will emerge remains in question.
Schedule:
9/5 - MONTANA STATE
9/12 - CENTRAL MICHIGAN
9/19 - at Notre Dame
9/26 - at Wisconsin
10/3 - MICHIGAN
10/10 - at Illinois
10/17 - NORTHWESTERN
10/24 - IOWA
10/31 - at Minnesota
11/7 - WESTERN MICHIGAN
11/14 - at Purdue
11/21 - PENN STATE
Key Games:
9/19 - at Notre Dame, 10/3 - MICHIGAN, 11/21 - PENN STATE
Prediction ... Michigan State has a decent conference schedule, which trades Ohio State for Illinois and Indiana for Minnesota. The Spartans also play Iowa at home again this fall - a nice bonus. The OOC slate is tougher than it looks. Montana State is preseason No. 17 in FCS, while Central and Western Michigan are among the best teams in the MAC. Can that six game South Bend win streak extend to seven? Can State win two straight over Michigan for the first time since the 1960s? Too bad MSU had to delve into 1-AA (FCS), as the Spartans were one of just a few remaining division one schools to not go that route. I expect good things for this team, with more talent than last year in all phases of the game.
OOC: 4-0 (None of them will be easy)
B10: 6-2 (wins over Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa, Purdue and Penn State)
Overall: 10-2, 3rd in the conference, Outback Bowl
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Big Ten Football Previews – Part VIII
Editor's Note: This is the eighth in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Iowa Hawkeyes
Tidbits ... Last year, Iowa gave up its lowest ever points in a season where the Hawkeyes played in 13 games. It was the lowest since 1997 - Hayden Fry's last winning season in Iowa City.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 2-6 (T-9th) / 9-4, 5-3 (T-4th), Outback
2007 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th), Champs / 6-6, 4-4 (T-5th)
2006 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose / 6-7, 2-6 (T-8th), Alamo
2005 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (T-1st), BCS / 7-5, 5-3 (T-3rd), Outback
2004 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (3rd), Capital One / 10-2, 7-1 (T-1st), Capital One
2003 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 10-3, 5-3 (T-4th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th) / 11-2, 8-0 (T-1st)
2001 Prediction / actual: 5-6, 2-6 (T-10th) / 7-5, 4-4 (T-4th)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 6 offense, 8 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Ricky Stanzi, WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, DE Adrian Clayborn, LB A.J. Edds
Key Losses: RB Shonn Greene, DT Mitch King, DT Matt Kroul
Looking Back ... I don't usually use this space to rehash my old predictions, but man did Iowa burn me last year. After two very sub-par seasons, I expected more of the same. I think a lot of others did too and therefore took the black and gold for granted. Iowa was very good last year, in an old-fashioned, smack you in the mouth type of way. The Hawkeyes dominated on the ground and with a stellar defense, all while helping a young signal caller grow into one of the better QBs in the conference. Can Iowa maintain that trend or will it be just another decent season in Iowa City this fall?
Outlook - Offense ... The Hawkeyes return six starters on the offensive side of the ball, led by quarterback Ricky Stanzi. Stanzi grew into a top-notch signal caller a season ago and his experience and maturity will be key for the Iowa offense. Iowa will absolutely miss Shonn Greene, who was an absolute stud for this attack last year. The good news for the Hawkeyes is that Greene sort of came from no where a year after Iowa lost 97% of its running game to graduation. That means big opportunity for sophomore Jewel Hampton. Hampton had an outstanding freshman season and is poised to do big things for Iowa this fall. The line, as it typically is for Iowa, will be good and should only get better as the season wears on. Stanzi has a few weapons in the passing game as well, so look for a solid, pro-style, balanced attack out of the Hawkeyes this fall.
Outlook - Defense ... Iowa brings back a defense that stopped just about everything thrown at it a season ago. Eight starters return, led by the entire linebacking corps and three starters in the secondary. The bad news, if any, is that the M&M tandem has departed. Mitch King and Matt Kroul flat-out dominated the Big Ten last season. The two tackles had 95 career starts between them and were a big reason for Iowa's success. Replacing them is no small task, but it is made at least a bit easier by the fact that the starting defensive ends return. I don't expect Iowa to be as good on this side of the ball as it was in '08, but the Iowa defense will not lose this team any games. If those holes at tackle are filled at even 75% of last year's production, watch out. This will be the sleeper team in 2009.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Iowa returns all of the kicking game from a unit that performed very well a season ago. The return men are sure-handed and solid, if they don't strike fear into the opposition's hearts with their speed or escapabililty. Iowa won games with solid punting and place kicking last year, expect more of the same in 09.
Schedule:
9/5 - NORTHERN IOWA
9/12 - at Iowa State
9/19 - ARIZONA
9/26 - at Penn State
10/3 - ARKANSAS STATE
10/10 - MICHIGAN
10/17 - at Wisconsin
10/24 - at Michigan State
10/31 - INDIANA
11/7 - NORTHWESTERN
11/14 - at Ohio State
11/21 - MINNESOTA
Key Games:
9/26 - at Penn State, 10/17 - at Wisconsin, 11/14 - at Ohio State
Prediction ... Iowa has a tough road slate this fall, but the OOC games are a virtual cake-walk. An early win at Penn State would be huge and likely catapult this team to a top two finish in the conference, but playing at night in State College, then at Camp Randall, followed by a night game in East Lansing and a trip to C-bus? Not this year. Iowa will have a great season and the fans who grow restless with Ferentz will be fully on his side once more...
OOC: 4-0 (onlyArizona even poses a threat)
B10: 5-3 (wins over Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Northwestern and Minnesota)
Overall: 9-3, T-4th in the conference, Capital One Bowl
Editor's Note: This is the eighth in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Iowa Hawkeyes
Tidbits ... Last year, Iowa gave up its lowest ever points in a season where the Hawkeyes played in 13 games. It was the lowest since 1997 - Hayden Fry's last winning season in Iowa City.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 2-6 (T-9th) / 9-4, 5-3 (T-4th), Outback
2007 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th), Champs / 6-6, 4-4 (T-5th)
2006 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose / 6-7, 2-6 (T-8th), Alamo
2005 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (T-1st), BCS / 7-5, 5-3 (T-3rd), Outback
2004 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (3rd), Capital One / 10-2, 7-1 (T-1st), Capital One
2003 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 10-3, 5-3 (T-4th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th) / 11-2, 8-0 (T-1st)
2001 Prediction / actual: 5-6, 2-6 (T-10th) / 7-5, 4-4 (T-4th)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 6 offense, 8 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Ricky Stanzi, WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, DE Adrian Clayborn, LB A.J. Edds
Key Losses: RB Shonn Greene, DT Mitch King, DT Matt Kroul
Looking Back ... I don't usually use this space to rehash my old predictions, but man did Iowa burn me last year. After two very sub-par seasons, I expected more of the same. I think a lot of others did too and therefore took the black and gold for granted. Iowa was very good last year, in an old-fashioned, smack you in the mouth type of way. The Hawkeyes dominated on the ground and with a stellar defense, all while helping a young signal caller grow into one of the better QBs in the conference. Can Iowa maintain that trend or will it be just another decent season in Iowa City this fall?
Outlook - Offense ... The Hawkeyes return six starters on the offensive side of the ball, led by quarterback Ricky Stanzi. Stanzi grew into a top-notch signal caller a season ago and his experience and maturity will be key for the Iowa offense. Iowa will absolutely miss Shonn Greene, who was an absolute stud for this attack last year. The good news for the Hawkeyes is that Greene sort of came from no where a year after Iowa lost 97% of its running game to graduation. That means big opportunity for sophomore Jewel Hampton. Hampton had an outstanding freshman season and is poised to do big things for Iowa this fall. The line, as it typically is for Iowa, will be good and should only get better as the season wears on. Stanzi has a few weapons in the passing game as well, so look for a solid, pro-style, balanced attack out of the Hawkeyes this fall.
Outlook - Defense ... Iowa brings back a defense that stopped just about everything thrown at it a season ago. Eight starters return, led by the entire linebacking corps and three starters in the secondary. The bad news, if any, is that the M&M tandem has departed. Mitch King and Matt Kroul flat-out dominated the Big Ten last season. The two tackles had 95 career starts between them and were a big reason for Iowa's success. Replacing them is no small task, but it is made at least a bit easier by the fact that the starting defensive ends return. I don't expect Iowa to be as good on this side of the ball as it was in '08, but the Iowa defense will not lose this team any games. If those holes at tackle are filled at even 75% of last year's production, watch out. This will be the sleeper team in 2009.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Iowa returns all of the kicking game from a unit that performed very well a season ago. The return men are sure-handed and solid, if they don't strike fear into the opposition's hearts with their speed or escapabililty. Iowa won games with solid punting and place kicking last year, expect more of the same in 09.
Schedule:
9/5 - NORTHERN IOWA
9/12 - at Iowa State
9/19 - ARIZONA
9/26 - at Penn State
10/3 - ARKANSAS STATE
10/10 - MICHIGAN
10/17 - at Wisconsin
10/24 - at Michigan State
10/31 - INDIANA
11/7 - NORTHWESTERN
11/14 - at Ohio State
11/21 - MINNESOTA
Key Games:
9/26 - at Penn State, 10/17 - at Wisconsin, 11/14 - at Ohio State
Prediction ... Iowa has a tough road slate this fall, but the OOC games are a virtual cake-walk. An early win at Penn State would be huge and likely catapult this team to a top two finish in the conference, but playing at night in State College, then at Camp Randall, followed by a night game in East Lansing and a trip to C-bus? Not this year. Iowa will have a great season and the fans who grow restless with Ferentz will be fully on his side once more...
OOC: 4-0 (onlyArizona even poses a threat)
B10: 5-3 (wins over Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Northwestern and Minnesota)
Overall: 9-3, T-4th in the conference, Capital One Bowl
Big Ten Football Previews – Part VII
Editor's Note: This is the seventh in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Illinois Fighting Illini
Tidbits ... Illinois had more wins in 2007 than they did the previous four years combined. The last time the Illini went 5-7 following a BCS Bowl season they went 1-11 the year after...
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (T-2nd), Capital One / 5-7, 3-5 (T-6th)
2007 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-10th) / 9-4, 6-2 (T-2nd) - Rose Bowl
2006 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 2-6 (8th) / 2-10, 1-7 (T-10th)
2005 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 2-6 (10th) / 2-9, 0-8 (11th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 3-5 (T-7th) / 1-11, 0-8 (11th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th) / 5-7, 4-4 (T-5th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 6-5, 3-5 (T-7th) / 10-2, 7-1 (1st)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 8 offense, 6 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn, DT Corey Liuget, LB Martez Wilson
Key Losses: LT Xavier Fulton, C Ryan McDonald, DE Will Davis, CB Vontae Davis
Looking Back ... Last season's outcome was not what folks in Illinois expected after a seven game turnaround and subsequent Rose Bowl berth in 2007. The Illini were violently unpredictable a season ago, struggling at times with what appeared (heading into the season) to be a well-oiled offensive machine and a defense that could never make the big plays needed to sustain 2007's success. For my money, the jury is still out on Ron Zook. He has grabbed some headliner recruits in his time at Illinois, but when will that turn into what every fan desires - a consistent winner?
Outlook - Offense ... Get used to this phrase - "Williams to Benn ... touchdown Illinois." Minnesota has Weber to Decker but this tandem is more explosive than its northern counterpart and must step up big if Illinois is to avoid another second division finish. The duo only connected for three scores last year, something that needs to improve if Illinois is to be the threat they ought to be. The passing game is more than Juice and Arrelious, however. Jeff Cumberland is a big target and tight end Michael Hoomanawanui has tremendous upside. The Illini will miss center Ryan McDonald and has to replace the left tackle as well, but should be sound. If things are to really pan out for this team, the running game needs to be a consistent threat. Daniel "Don't call me Andy" Dufrene has big play potential but needs to also be a stabilizing factor.
Outlook - Defense ... The bad news for Illinois is that the offense might need to score in droves just to ensure a winning season. It isn't that the defense is bad, but there aren't a lot of proven playmakers on this side of the ball. The Illini are young and athletic, which means big plays will happen, but so will big mistakes. The anchor of the unit is linebacker Martez Wilson. The junior has the size and speed to be a force for this defense. He also has a decent defensive line in front of him and a solid secondary behind him. The Illini will miss Vontae Davis, but Dere Hicks is a great corner and the safeties are sound. No matter who the personnel, this defense MUST be better than it was a year ago if Illinois is to sniff a bowl game, let alone the upper tier teams in the conference.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Illinois brings back all the key cogs in what was a decent, if somewhat up and down special teams unit. Sophomore kicker Matt Eller was 15-20 a season ago and should be better with a season under his belt. Punter Anothony Santella needs to get more distance out of his kicks. The return game should be great, with Benn and A.J. Jenkins always threatening to take it to the house.
Schedule:
9/5 - vs. Missouri
9/12 - ILLINOIS STATE
9/26 - at Ohio State
10/3 - PENN STATE
10/10 - MICHIGAN STATE
10/17 - at Indiana
10/24 - at Purdue
10/31 - MICHIGAN
11/7 - at Minnesota
11/14 - NORTHWESTERN
11/27 - at Cincinnati
12/5 - FRESNO STATE
Key Games: 9/26 - at Ohio State, 10/3 - PENN STATE, 10/10 - MICHIGAN STATE
Prediction ... Even without Iowa and Wisconsin on the slate, this is a pretty brutal schedule. Missouri is always a tough opener, and then the three week run of "States" is an early make or break stretch. The Illini, assuming bowl eligibility, might be in good shape as such given two games well after the rest of the Big Ten calls it quits for the regular season (except Wisconsin). There are plenty of chances to shine or fail, and the pressure is on for the Illini to prove that '07 was no fluke.
OOC: 3-1 (lone loss comes at Cincinnati)
B10: 5-3 (wins over Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan and Northwestern)
Overall: 8-4, T-4th in the conference, Alamo Bowl
Editor's Note: This is the seventh in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Illinois Fighting Illini
Tidbits ... Illinois had more wins in 2007 than they did the previous four years combined. The last time the Illini went 5-7 following a BCS Bowl season they went 1-11 the year after...
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 5-3 (T-2nd), Capital One / 5-7, 3-5 (T-6th)
2007 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-10th) / 9-4, 6-2 (T-2nd) - Rose Bowl
2006 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 2-6 (8th) / 2-10, 1-7 (T-10th)
2005 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 2-6 (10th) / 2-9, 0-8 (11th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 5-7, 3-5 (T-7th) / 1-11, 0-8 (11th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th) / 5-7, 4-4 (T-5th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 6-5, 3-5 (T-7th) / 10-2, 7-1 (1st)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 8 offense, 6 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn, DT Corey Liuget, LB Martez Wilson
Key Losses: LT Xavier Fulton, C Ryan McDonald, DE Will Davis, CB Vontae Davis
Looking Back ... Last season's outcome was not what folks in Illinois expected after a seven game turnaround and subsequent Rose Bowl berth in 2007. The Illini were violently unpredictable a season ago, struggling at times with what appeared (heading into the season) to be a well-oiled offensive machine and a defense that could never make the big plays needed to sustain 2007's success. For my money, the jury is still out on Ron Zook. He has grabbed some headliner recruits in his time at Illinois, but when will that turn into what every fan desires - a consistent winner?
Outlook - Offense ... Get used to this phrase - "Williams to Benn ... touchdown Illinois." Minnesota has Weber to Decker but this tandem is more explosive than its northern counterpart and must step up big if Illinois is to avoid another second division finish. The duo only connected for three scores last year, something that needs to improve if Illinois is to be the threat they ought to be. The passing game is more than Juice and Arrelious, however. Jeff Cumberland is a big target and tight end Michael Hoomanawanui has tremendous upside. The Illini will miss center Ryan McDonald and has to replace the left tackle as well, but should be sound. If things are to really pan out for this team, the running game needs to be a consistent threat. Daniel "Don't call me Andy" Dufrene has big play potential but needs to also be a stabilizing factor.
Outlook - Defense ... The bad news for Illinois is that the offense might need to score in droves just to ensure a winning season. It isn't that the defense is bad, but there aren't a lot of proven playmakers on this side of the ball. The Illini are young and athletic, which means big plays will happen, but so will big mistakes. The anchor of the unit is linebacker Martez Wilson. The junior has the size and speed to be a force for this defense. He also has a decent defensive line in front of him and a solid secondary behind him. The Illini will miss Vontae Davis, but Dere Hicks is a great corner and the safeties are sound. No matter who the personnel, this defense MUST be better than it was a year ago if Illinois is to sniff a bowl game, let alone the upper tier teams in the conference.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Illinois brings back all the key cogs in what was a decent, if somewhat up and down special teams unit. Sophomore kicker Matt Eller was 15-20 a season ago and should be better with a season under his belt. Punter Anothony Santella needs to get more distance out of his kicks. The return game should be great, with Benn and A.J. Jenkins always threatening to take it to the house.
Schedule:
9/5 - vs. Missouri
9/12 - ILLINOIS STATE
9/26 - at Ohio State
10/3 - PENN STATE
10/10 - MICHIGAN STATE
10/17 - at Indiana
10/24 - at Purdue
10/31 - MICHIGAN
11/7 - at Minnesota
11/14 - NORTHWESTERN
11/27 - at Cincinnati
12/5 - FRESNO STATE
Key Games: 9/26 - at Ohio State, 10/3 - PENN STATE, 10/10 - MICHIGAN STATE
Prediction ... Even without Iowa and Wisconsin on the slate, this is a pretty brutal schedule. Missouri is always a tough opener, and then the three week run of "States" is an early make or break stretch. The Illini, assuming bowl eligibility, might be in good shape as such given two games well after the rest of the Big Ten calls it quits for the regular season (except Wisconsin). There are plenty of chances to shine or fail, and the pressure is on for the Illini to prove that '07 was no fluke.
OOC: 3-1 (lone loss comes at Cincinnati)
B10: 5-3 (wins over Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan and Northwestern)
Overall: 8-4, T-4th in the conference, Alamo Bowl
Friday, July 24, 2009
Big Ten Football Previews – Part VI
Editor's Note: This is the sixth in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Minnesota Golden Gophers
Tidbits ... Minnesota's last, outdoor, home football game was played on November 21, 1981. It was a win over rival Wisconsin. The six game turnaround in 2008 was the best since the 1960 Gophers went from 2-7 to 8-2.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction/actual: 4-8, 2-6 (T-9th) / 7-6, 3-5 (T-6th), Insight
2007 Prediction/actual: 5-7, 1-7 (T-10th) / 1-11, 0-8 (11th)
2006 Prediction/actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-9th) / 6-7, 3-5 (T-6th), Insight
2005 Prediction/actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Motor City / 7-5, 4-4 (7th), Music City
2004 Prediction/actual: 6-5, 3-5 (8th), Motor City / 7-5, 3-5 (8th), Music City
2003 Prediction/actual: 9-3, 5-3 (5th) / 10-3, 5-3 (T-4th)
2002 Prediction/actual: 6-6, 2-6 (9th) / 8-5, 3-5 (T-7th)
2001 Prediction/actual: 5-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 4-7, 2-6 (T-10th)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 10 offense, 8 defense, 0 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Adam Weber, WR Eric Decker, LB Lee Campbell, CB Traye Simmons
Key Losses: TE Jack Simmons, DE Willie VanDeSteeg, LB Deon Hightower, P Justin Kucek
Looking Back ... If the 2007 season was nothing but ugly, the 2008 season was at least part beauty before it turned beast. The Golden Gophers followed up one win in '07 with seven in its first eight games of '08. It was on track to be more than a great turnaround, but one of epic proportions. That is, until Minnesota hit the skids and limped home with five straight losses, including an ugly shellacking at the hands of rival Iowa. The question going into 2009 is can Minnesota restore the early season momentum en route to another round of marked improvement?
Outlook - Offense ... Your eyes don't deceive you, the following sentence is a direct, well almost direct, pickup from my preview last year: The Gophers return plenty of offensive firepower from a team that could move the ball and score last season - at least through the first eight games. Adam Weber is among the best returning quarterbacks in the league and can still seek out battery mate Eric Decker with hopes of burning opposing defenses. The trouble is, second leading pass catcher Jack Simmons has moved on. But he's the only starter that doesn't return and given the first few classes Coach Brewster has brought in, surely someone will step up. Ideally, the Gophers will get more production on the ground, with Deleon Eskridge and Shady Salamon more than capable of racking up big numbers. If it all clicks, watch out - this could be one of the more prolific attacks in the country.
Outlook - Defense ... Minnesota took a few giant leaps forward at the onset of last season but crashed to earth by giving up 132 points in their last three games, including 55 at Iowa. Eight starters return and eight of the projected starters are seniors. That should mean a more consistent, season-long effort in 2009 - at least theoretically. However, the loss of DE Willie VanDeSteeg will be felt and the loss of safety Tramaine Brock to academics will also hurt. The key will be for the returning group to step it up a notch and hope that the very young depth chart is able to fill the gaps and bring the defense back to total season respectability. Look for Cedric McKinley, Simoni Lawrence, Lee Campbell and Traye Simmons to be the stars for a team that took the ball away in droves last season.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Minnesota will not lack for a return man as both Troy Stoudermire and Marcus Sherels return but the kicking game could be a roller coaster ride for a while. Both kickers have moved on, which means Eric Ellestad and Dan Orseske must step in and step up to provide the Golden Gophers with a shot at improving over last season.
Schedule:
9/5 - at Syracuse
9/12 - AIR FORCE
9/19 - CALIFORNIA
9/26 - at Northwestern
10/3 - WISCONSIN
10/10 - PURDUE
10/17 - at Penn State
10/24 - at Ohio State
10/31 - MICHIGAN STATE
11/7 - ILLINOIS
11/14 - SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
11/21 - at Iowa
Key Games: 9/12 - Air Force (Stadium opener), 10/3 - WISCONSIN, 11/21 - at Iowa
Prediction ... Minnesota sure turned the tables on its scheduling tendencies, picking up two BCS conference teams and a tough Air Force team in place of 1-A newbies and lower tier MAC squads. That might bite them this year, although the Gophers certainly have the talent to be as good as last year, if not better. A four game run of at Penn State, at Ohio State, Michigan State and Illinois at home could be make or break for the season.
OOC: 3-1 (lone loss comes to Cal at home)
B10: 4-4 (win over Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois)
Overall: 7-5, 6th in the conference, At Large Bowl Berth
Editor's Note: This is the sixth in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Minnesota Golden Gophers
Tidbits ... Minnesota's last, outdoor, home football game was played on November 21, 1981. It was a win over rival Wisconsin. The six game turnaround in 2008 was the best since the 1960 Gophers went from 2-7 to 8-2.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction/actual: 4-8, 2-6 (T-9th) / 7-6, 3-5 (T-6th), Insight
2007 Prediction/actual: 5-7, 1-7 (T-10th) / 1-11, 0-8 (11th)
2006 Prediction/actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-9th) / 6-7, 3-5 (T-6th), Insight
2005 Prediction/actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Motor City / 7-5, 4-4 (7th), Music City
2004 Prediction/actual: 6-5, 3-5 (8th), Motor City / 7-5, 3-5 (8th), Music City
2003 Prediction/actual: 9-3, 5-3 (5th) / 10-3, 5-3 (T-4th)
2002 Prediction/actual: 6-6, 2-6 (9th) / 8-5, 3-5 (T-7th)
2001 Prediction/actual: 5-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 4-7, 2-6 (T-10th)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 10 offense, 8 defense, 0 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Adam Weber, WR Eric Decker, LB Lee Campbell, CB Traye Simmons
Key Losses: TE Jack Simmons, DE Willie VanDeSteeg, LB Deon Hightower, P Justin Kucek
Looking Back ... If the 2007 season was nothing but ugly, the 2008 season was at least part beauty before it turned beast. The Golden Gophers followed up one win in '07 with seven in its first eight games of '08. It was on track to be more than a great turnaround, but one of epic proportions. That is, until Minnesota hit the skids and limped home with five straight losses, including an ugly shellacking at the hands of rival Iowa. The question going into 2009 is can Minnesota restore the early season momentum en route to another round of marked improvement?
Outlook - Offense ... Your eyes don't deceive you, the following sentence is a direct, well almost direct, pickup from my preview last year: The Gophers return plenty of offensive firepower from a team that could move the ball and score last season - at least through the first eight games. Adam Weber is among the best returning quarterbacks in the league and can still seek out battery mate Eric Decker with hopes of burning opposing defenses. The trouble is, second leading pass catcher Jack Simmons has moved on. But he's the only starter that doesn't return and given the first few classes Coach Brewster has brought in, surely someone will step up. Ideally, the Gophers will get more production on the ground, with Deleon Eskridge and Shady Salamon more than capable of racking up big numbers. If it all clicks, watch out - this could be one of the more prolific attacks in the country.
Outlook - Defense ... Minnesota took a few giant leaps forward at the onset of last season but crashed to earth by giving up 132 points in their last three games, including 55 at Iowa. Eight starters return and eight of the projected starters are seniors. That should mean a more consistent, season-long effort in 2009 - at least theoretically. However, the loss of DE Willie VanDeSteeg will be felt and the loss of safety Tramaine Brock to academics will also hurt. The key will be for the returning group to step it up a notch and hope that the very young depth chart is able to fill the gaps and bring the defense back to total season respectability. Look for Cedric McKinley, Simoni Lawrence, Lee Campbell and Traye Simmons to be the stars for a team that took the ball away in droves last season.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Minnesota will not lack for a return man as both Troy Stoudermire and Marcus Sherels return but the kicking game could be a roller coaster ride for a while. Both kickers have moved on, which means Eric Ellestad and Dan Orseske must step in and step up to provide the Golden Gophers with a shot at improving over last season.
Schedule:
9/5 - at Syracuse
9/12 - AIR FORCE
9/19 - CALIFORNIA
9/26 - at Northwestern
10/3 - WISCONSIN
10/10 - PURDUE
10/17 - at Penn State
10/24 - at Ohio State
10/31 - MICHIGAN STATE
11/7 - ILLINOIS
11/14 - SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
11/21 - at Iowa
Key Games: 9/12 - Air Force (Stadium opener), 10/3 - WISCONSIN, 11/21 - at Iowa
Prediction ... Minnesota sure turned the tables on its scheduling tendencies, picking up two BCS conference teams and a tough Air Force team in place of 1-A newbies and lower tier MAC squads. That might bite them this year, although the Gophers certainly have the talent to be as good as last year, if not better. A four game run of at Penn State, at Ohio State, Michigan State and Illinois at home could be make or break for the season.
OOC: 3-1 (lone loss comes to Cal at home)
B10: 4-4 (win over Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois)
Overall: 7-5, 6th in the conference, At Large Bowl Berth
Big Ten Football Previews – Part V
Editor's Note: This is the fifth in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Wisconsin Badgers
Tidbits … Coach Bret Bielema went 17-1 in his first 19 games. Since then he is 11-10. Last season marked the Badgers' seventh straight with a bowl bid, but brought about the least wins since 2003.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-2nd), Alamo / 7-6, 3-5 (T-6th), Champs
2007 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose / 9-4, 5-3 (4th), Outback
2006 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th), Alamo / 12-1, 7-1 (T-2nd), Capital One
2005 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Alamo / 10-3, 5-3 (T-3rd), Capital One
2004 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Alamo / 9-3, 6-2 (3rd), Outback
2003 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-2nd) / 7-6, 4-4 (T-7th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-5, 4-4 (T-6th) / 8-6, 2-6 (T-8th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (4th) / 5-7, 3-5 (T-8th)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 6 offense, 5 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: RB John Clay, TE Garrett Graham, C John Moffitt, SS Jay Valai, CB Aaron Henry
Key Losses: RB P.J. Hill, TE Travis Beckum, OL Kraig Urbik, DE Matt Shaughnessy, LB Jonathan Casillas
Looking Back ... Wisconsin started hot in 2008, blew a big lead at Michigan and then suffered four staright set backs before closing out the regular season with four wins in five games. It was not a pretty year for the Badgers. Penalties, injuries and inconsistent play from the quarterback position really put a damper on what looked to be a promising campaign. Aside from giving the game away in Ann Arbor, the loss at Michigan State was particularly disturbing, given that the Badgers dominated everywhere but the scoreboard. The murmurs and mumbling is starting, can Bret Bielema do the job that Barry Alvarez did?
Outlook - Offense ... There is one question mark on the offensive side of the ball - quarterback. Can Dustin Sherer gain the consistency needed to command his offense and lead Wisconsin to victories? He certainly has support. The offensive line is always solid for the Badgers. John Clay and Zach Brown are proven entities at tailback. Garrett Graham will quickly help UW fans forget about Beckum. The wide receiving corps is rock solid, if a little injury prone. The pieces and parts are there, but there needs to be a maestro. Can Sherer conduct the Wisconsin offense with the efficiency and power needed to turn tough losses into big wins? I'm not 100% sold.
Outlook - Defense ... The fact that Wisconsin is not long on experience when it comes to the defensive front seven puts even more pressure on Sherer and the offense. There is plenty of depth and some nice talent on the defensive line, and transfer J.J. Watt could really burst onto the scene. The problem is, the linebacking corps is paper thin. Jaevery McFadden is a very good linebacker and the starters that flank him are decent, but the depth chart is full of inexperience. The good news is that the secondary returns three starters, including one of the best hitters in the league in Jay Valai. It will also help matters if Aaron Henry can return to form after an ACL injury forced him out in 2008. This isn't your typical, nasty Wisconsin defense with a pounding front seven, so the group will have to be opportunistic if the Badgers hope to finish in the upper division of the Big Ten.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Last year I wondered whether Wisconsin could replace its dynamic kicking duo. Well, it did and now the sophomores are among the best in the conference. Philip Welch converted 20 of 24 field goals and Brad Nortman had a better average than his predecessor. The cardinal and white always find a dangerous return man so this might in fact be the strength of the team.
Schedule:
9/5 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS
9/12 - FRESNO STATE
9/19 - WOFFORD
9/26 - MICHIGAN STATE
10/3 - at Minnesota
10/10 - at Ohio State
10/17 - IOWA
10/31 - PURDUE
11/7 - at Indiana
11/14 - MICHIGAN
11/21 - at Northwestern
12/5 - at Hawaii
Key Games:
10/3 - at Minnesota, 10/10 - at Ohio State, 10/17 - IOWA
Prediction ... Unlike past Wisconsin teams, which have left me wondering as soon as the ink dried on my prediction whether I was way low on my take, I am thinking I might be a little over-generous here. The offense doesn't scare me. The defense is not what you'd expect from Madison. I'm just not sure. The OOC slate is the difference maker. It is about as easy as it gets, in my opinion. It will be another winning season in Mad-town, but will it be winning enough for the grumblings to cease?
OOC: 4-0 (Wofford?! Hawaii could be tough, but the rest are not)
B10: 3-5 (wins over Purdue, Indiana and Northwestern)
Overall: 7-5, T-7th in the conference, Insight Bowl
Editor's Note: This is the fifth in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Wisconsin Badgers
Tidbits … Coach Bret Bielema went 17-1 in his first 19 games. Since then he is 11-10. Last season marked the Badgers' seventh straight with a bowl bid, but brought about the least wins since 2003.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-2nd), Alamo / 7-6, 3-5 (T-6th), Champs
2007 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose / 9-4, 5-3 (4th), Outback
2006 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th), Alamo / 12-1, 7-1 (T-2nd), Capital One
2005 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Alamo / 10-3, 5-3 (T-3rd), Capital One
2004 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Alamo / 9-3, 6-2 (3rd), Outback
2003 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-2nd) / 7-6, 4-4 (T-7th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-5, 4-4 (T-6th) / 8-6, 2-6 (T-8th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (4th) / 5-7, 3-5 (T-8th)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 6 offense, 5 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: RB John Clay, TE Garrett Graham, C John Moffitt, SS Jay Valai, CB Aaron Henry
Key Losses: RB P.J. Hill, TE Travis Beckum, OL Kraig Urbik, DE Matt Shaughnessy, LB Jonathan Casillas
Looking Back ... Wisconsin started hot in 2008, blew a big lead at Michigan and then suffered four staright set backs before closing out the regular season with four wins in five games. It was not a pretty year for the Badgers. Penalties, injuries and inconsistent play from the quarterback position really put a damper on what looked to be a promising campaign. Aside from giving the game away in Ann Arbor, the loss at Michigan State was particularly disturbing, given that the Badgers dominated everywhere but the scoreboard. The murmurs and mumbling is starting, can Bret Bielema do the job that Barry Alvarez did?
Outlook - Offense ... There is one question mark on the offensive side of the ball - quarterback. Can Dustin Sherer gain the consistency needed to command his offense and lead Wisconsin to victories? He certainly has support. The offensive line is always solid for the Badgers. John Clay and Zach Brown are proven entities at tailback. Garrett Graham will quickly help UW fans forget about Beckum. The wide receiving corps is rock solid, if a little injury prone. The pieces and parts are there, but there needs to be a maestro. Can Sherer conduct the Wisconsin offense with the efficiency and power needed to turn tough losses into big wins? I'm not 100% sold.
Outlook - Defense ... The fact that Wisconsin is not long on experience when it comes to the defensive front seven puts even more pressure on Sherer and the offense. There is plenty of depth and some nice talent on the defensive line, and transfer J.J. Watt could really burst onto the scene. The problem is, the linebacking corps is paper thin. Jaevery McFadden is a very good linebacker and the starters that flank him are decent, but the depth chart is full of inexperience. The good news is that the secondary returns three starters, including one of the best hitters in the league in Jay Valai. It will also help matters if Aaron Henry can return to form after an ACL injury forced him out in 2008. This isn't your typical, nasty Wisconsin defense with a pounding front seven, so the group will have to be opportunistic if the Badgers hope to finish in the upper division of the Big Ten.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Last year I wondered whether Wisconsin could replace its dynamic kicking duo. Well, it did and now the sophomores are among the best in the conference. Philip Welch converted 20 of 24 field goals and Brad Nortman had a better average than his predecessor. The cardinal and white always find a dangerous return man so this might in fact be the strength of the team.
Schedule:
9/5 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS
9/12 - FRESNO STATE
9/19 - WOFFORD
9/26 - MICHIGAN STATE
10/3 - at Minnesota
10/10 - at Ohio State
10/17 - IOWA
10/31 - PURDUE
11/7 - at Indiana
11/14 - MICHIGAN
11/21 - at Northwestern
12/5 - at Hawaii
Key Games:
10/3 - at Minnesota, 10/10 - at Ohio State, 10/17 - IOWA
Prediction ... Unlike past Wisconsin teams, which have left me wondering as soon as the ink dried on my prediction whether I was way low on my take, I am thinking I might be a little over-generous here. The offense doesn't scare me. The defense is not what you'd expect from Madison. I'm just not sure. The OOC slate is the difference maker. It is about as easy as it gets, in my opinion. It will be another winning season in Mad-town, but will it be winning enough for the grumblings to cease?
OOC: 4-0 (Wofford?! Hawaii could be tough, but the rest are not)
B10: 3-5 (wins over Purdue, Indiana and Northwestern)
Overall: 7-5, T-7th in the conference, Insight Bowl
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Big Ten Football Previews – Part IV
Editor's Note: This is the fourth in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Michigan Wolverines
Tidbits … The last losing season in Ann Arbor - before last season - was 1967. The last time the maize and blue failed to go bowling - before last season - was 1975. The last time Michigan only won 3 games was 1963 and they followed that with a 9 win season.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 3-5 )T-7th), Champs / 3-9, 2-6 (T-9th), None
2007 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), BCS / 9-4, 6-2 (T-2nd), Capital One
2006 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 6-2 (T-3rd), Outback / 11-2, 7-1 (T-2nd), Rose
2005 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (T-1st), BCS / 7-5, 5-3 (T-3rd), Alamo
2004 Prediction / actual: 10-1, 7-1 (T-1st), BCS / 9-3, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose
2003 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-2nd) / 10-3, 7-1 (1st)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th) / 10-3, 6-2 (3rd)
2001 Prediction / actual: 8-3, 6-2 (T-1st) / 8-4, 6-2 (2nd)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 10.5 offense*, 5 defense, 1 kicker (* given the slew of injuries, Michigan returns 4.5 part time starters and 6 full time starters on the offensive side of the ball)
Key Returnees: WR Greg Mathews, RB Brandon Minor, DE Brandon Graham, LB Obi Ezeh
Key Losses: DE Tim Jamison, DT Will Johnson, DT Terrance Taylor, CB Morgan Trent
Looking Back ... If 2007 marked the end of an era in Ann Arbor, 2008 provided a ghastly start of a new time for college football's winningest program. So anytime you go outside the program and make a hire like Michigan did, there are bound to be growing pains. But no one expected it to be this bad! Just when you thought losing to Appalachian State was bad, there was the Toldeo game. And to lose to every rival by at least two TDs? Ouch. But, as they say, that was then. Those who really wanted change are willing to give it three years. Will that be enough? Will Rich Rodriguez need that much time? Stay tuned...
Outlook - Offense ... The Wolverines return 10-plus guys with starting experience, but I have yet to determine if that is a good thing or not. The offensive front gained a lot of experience in the new scheme last year and developed depth along the way. There is talent at tailback and wide receiver. Tight end Kevin Kroger is underrated. New blood arrives at the skill positions too. But the single key to success will rest on the arm and legs of a true freshman. Tate Forcier - welcome to the spotlight. Michigan players certainly have a better grasp of the offense in year two and there is plenty of talent in the pantry, but can a true freshman lead this team from the depths to contention in one year? Not probable. But then again, Michigan and three wins was not a probable combination last year either.
Outlook - Defense ... Michigan's defense was supposed to carry the team last fall and never really stepped up to the challenge, giving up 35 + points a stunning six times. The good news is that the offense should be better this year, meaning less pressure on the D. The bad news is - unlike with Wolverines' teams in the past - there is only one real star on the defensive side of the ball. Typically Michigan boasts up to a handful of future NFLers, but this year, Brandon Graham is the only one who really stands out - though Obi Ezeh could also fit that bill eventually. Of course there is talent around, this is - after all - Michigan we're talking about, but there is some settling in that needs to be done. The key will be for this group to shake last year's woes and get off to a better start with the basics. Tackling was a big problem last year, but with a new coordinator, new focus and renewed energy, you have to bet that the M defense will be far better in '09 than it was a season ago.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Michigan's special teams play last year was less than stellar. The kicking game only yielded 10 field goals at a .667 clip. Upwards of 13 players tried their hand at the return game and put the ball on the turf at an alarming rate. Only punter Zoltan Mesko had a decent campaign and he may have tired from over-use! Mesko is back and the special teams' units have hopes of vast improvement in 2009. Whether or not they get it remains to be seen.
Schedule:
9/5 - WESTERN MICHIGAN
9/12 - NOTRE DAME
9/19 - EASTERN MICHIGAN
9/26 - INDIANA
10/3 - at Michigan State
10/10 - at Iowa
10/17 - DELAWARE STATE
10/24 - PENN STATE
10/31 - at Illinois
11/7 - PURDUE
11/14 - at Wisconsin
11/21 - OHIO STATE
Key Games:
9/12 - NOTRE DAME, 10/3 - at Michigan State, 11/22 - at Ohio State
Prediction ... Well, last year was even worse than I expected. Word from the die hard Michigan fans is that expectations are for six or seven wins this year. I think that is realistic. My big question is this: what happens if Rodriguez & Co. have another sub .500 season? Will he get a third year? I expect some new weapons to emerge this year that are much better fits for the team and style, but along with young players comes inexperience and rookie mistakes. It'll be better this year, but it still won't measure up to Michigan standards.
OOC: 3-1 (Notre Dame is the only loss, but don't sleep on Western Michigan)
B10: 3-5 (wins over Indiana, Purdue and Wisconsin)
Overall: 6-6, T-7th in the conference, Motor City Bowl
Editor's Note: This is the fourth in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Michigan Wolverines
Tidbits … The last losing season in Ann Arbor - before last season - was 1967. The last time the maize and blue failed to go bowling - before last season - was 1975. The last time Michigan only won 3 games was 1963 and they followed that with a 9 win season.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 3-5 )T-7th), Champs / 3-9, 2-6 (T-9th), None
2007 Prediction / actual: 11-1, 7-1 (T-1st), BCS / 9-4, 6-2 (T-2nd), Capital One
2006 Prediction / actual: 9-3, 6-2 (T-3rd), Outback / 11-2, 7-1 (T-2nd), Rose
2005 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (T-1st), BCS / 7-5, 5-3 (T-3rd), Alamo
2004 Prediction / actual: 10-1, 7-1 (T-1st), BCS / 9-3, 7-1 (T-1st), Rose
2003 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-2nd) / 10-3, 7-1 (1st)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th) / 10-3, 6-2 (3rd)
2001 Prediction / actual: 8-3, 6-2 (T-1st) / 8-4, 6-2 (2nd)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 10.5 offense*, 5 defense, 1 kicker (* given the slew of injuries, Michigan returns 4.5 part time starters and 6 full time starters on the offensive side of the ball)
Key Returnees: WR Greg Mathews, RB Brandon Minor, DE Brandon Graham, LB Obi Ezeh
Key Losses: DE Tim Jamison, DT Will Johnson, DT Terrance Taylor, CB Morgan Trent
Looking Back ... If 2007 marked the end of an era in Ann Arbor, 2008 provided a ghastly start of a new time for college football's winningest program. So anytime you go outside the program and make a hire like Michigan did, there are bound to be growing pains. But no one expected it to be this bad! Just when you thought losing to Appalachian State was bad, there was the Toldeo game. And to lose to every rival by at least two TDs? Ouch. But, as they say, that was then. Those who really wanted change are willing to give it three years. Will that be enough? Will Rich Rodriguez need that much time? Stay tuned...
Outlook - Offense ... The Wolverines return 10-plus guys with starting experience, but I have yet to determine if that is a good thing or not. The offensive front gained a lot of experience in the new scheme last year and developed depth along the way. There is talent at tailback and wide receiver. Tight end Kevin Kroger is underrated. New blood arrives at the skill positions too. But the single key to success will rest on the arm and legs of a true freshman. Tate Forcier - welcome to the spotlight. Michigan players certainly have a better grasp of the offense in year two and there is plenty of talent in the pantry, but can a true freshman lead this team from the depths to contention in one year? Not probable. But then again, Michigan and three wins was not a probable combination last year either.
Outlook - Defense ... Michigan's defense was supposed to carry the team last fall and never really stepped up to the challenge, giving up 35 + points a stunning six times. The good news is that the offense should be better this year, meaning less pressure on the D. The bad news is - unlike with Wolverines' teams in the past - there is only one real star on the defensive side of the ball. Typically Michigan boasts up to a handful of future NFLers, but this year, Brandon Graham is the only one who really stands out - though Obi Ezeh could also fit that bill eventually. Of course there is talent around, this is - after all - Michigan we're talking about, but there is some settling in that needs to be done. The key will be for this group to shake last year's woes and get off to a better start with the basics. Tackling was a big problem last year, but with a new coordinator, new focus and renewed energy, you have to bet that the M defense will be far better in '09 than it was a season ago.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Michigan's special teams play last year was less than stellar. The kicking game only yielded 10 field goals at a .667 clip. Upwards of 13 players tried their hand at the return game and put the ball on the turf at an alarming rate. Only punter Zoltan Mesko had a decent campaign and he may have tired from over-use! Mesko is back and the special teams' units have hopes of vast improvement in 2009. Whether or not they get it remains to be seen.
Schedule:
9/5 - WESTERN MICHIGAN
9/12 - NOTRE DAME
9/19 - EASTERN MICHIGAN
9/26 - INDIANA
10/3 - at Michigan State
10/10 - at Iowa
10/17 - DELAWARE STATE
10/24 - PENN STATE
10/31 - at Illinois
11/7 - PURDUE
11/14 - at Wisconsin
11/21 - OHIO STATE
Key Games:
9/12 - NOTRE DAME, 10/3 - at Michigan State, 11/22 - at Ohio State
Prediction ... Well, last year was even worse than I expected. Word from the die hard Michigan fans is that expectations are for six or seven wins this year. I think that is realistic. My big question is this: what happens if Rodriguez & Co. have another sub .500 season? Will he get a third year? I expect some new weapons to emerge this year that are much better fits for the team and style, but along with young players comes inexperience and rookie mistakes. It'll be better this year, but it still won't measure up to Michigan standards.
OOC: 3-1 (Notre Dame is the only loss, but don't sleep on Western Michigan)
B10: 3-5 (wins over Indiana, Purdue and Wisconsin)
Overall: 6-6, T-7th in the conference, Motor City Bowl
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Big Ten Football Previews – Part III
Editor's Note: This is the third in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Northwestern Wildcats
Tidbits … The Wildcats won nine games in 2008 - the most since the 1996 team went 9-3. It was only the fifth time in school history that the team recorded nine wins. The others? 1898, 1903, 1995 and 1996.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction/actual: 6-6, 2-6 (T-9th) - At Large Bid / 9-4, 5-3 (T-4th) - Alamo Bowl
2007 Prediction/actual: 5-7, 2-6 (9th) / 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th)
2006 Prediction/actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-9th) / 4-8, 2-6 (T-8th)
2005 Prediction/actual: 5-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 7-5, 5-3 (T-3rd) – Sun Bowl
2004 Prediction/actual: 5-7, 2-6 (9th) / 6-6, 5-3 (4th)
2003 Prediction/actual: 3-9, 0-8 (11th) / 6-7, 4-4 (T-7th) – Motor City Bowl
2002 Prediction/actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-6th) / 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th)
2001 Prediction/actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th) / 4-7, 2-6 (T-10th)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 5 offense, 8 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: QB Mike Kafka, DE Corey Wootton, FS Brad Phillips, SS Brendan Smith
Key Losses: QB C.J. Bacher, RB Tyrell Sutton, DT John Gill, DE Kevin Mims, K Amando Villareal
Looking Back ... Wow! To anyone who doubted the move to Pat Fitzgerald in the wake of Randy Walker's sudden death a few years back, shame on you. Fitzgerald turned in one of the best seasons in school history, rattling off nine wins and making a nice run at Mizzou in the Alamo Bowl. And just think - within the losses was one to - gasp - Indiana. That team had a nice mix of power and finesse on offense and a defense that could step up on occasion. How does it look for 2009? Well, that remains to be seen. But one thing is for sure, Pat Fitzgerald is another big season away from myriad big program coaching opportunities.
Outlook - Offense ... If the Wildcats take a step back in 2009, it will be due to the loss of proven weapons from the offensive arsenal. Mike Kafka got some good experience at quarterback last fall, but Bacher had that winning knack about him. So did Tyrell Sutton, who might be the most missed of them all on the offensive side of the ball. Having to replace three solid wide receivers is no small task either. But enough gloom and doom. What Northwestern does have is a line that returns three starters and Kafka. The key will be for a young back and receiver or two to step up early, otherwise 2009 could be a side step or step back before the next program growth spurt.
Outlook - Defense ... Okay, so how often do we use Northwestern and defense as a strength in the same sentence? Truthfully, not often. That said, the Wildcats have produced some great defenders over the past 10-15 years. The trouble has been fielding defense that is rock solid from top to bottom. Well, this year might be the year. Eight starters return and there are a few others in the starting mix who have seen time but battled injury a season ago. Only two games really got away from the purple and black last year (OSU and MSU) but the defense will have to be even tighter this year if the 'cats are to have success. The entire front four looks good, potentially really good, but each has battled injuries over the years. The back seven is flat out good. The linebackers are quick and athletic, the secondary deep. If this unit can stay healthy, Northwestern will win a few this year with its defense.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Northwestern will miss place kicker Amando Villareal but Stefan Demos may be able to handle all the kicking duties this fall. Northwestern also lost plenty of return game weapons, but the depth that is battling for time at tailback will be a nice positive for that part of special teams this fall.
Schedule:
9/5 - TOWSON
9/12 - EASTERN MICHIGAN
9/19 - at Syracuse
9/26 - MINNESOTA
10/3 - at Purdue
10/10 - MIAMI-OH.
10/17 - at Michigan State
10/24 - INDIANA
10/31 - PENN STATE
11/7 - at Iowa
11/14 - at Illinois
11/21 - WISCONSIN
Key Games:
10/3 - at Purdue, 10/17 - at Michigan State, 11/14 - at Illinois
Prediction ... If only... if only this team had proven firepower returning to the offensive side of the ball, I could easily see better than I am predicting. The schedule isn't bad at all, with no Buckeyes and Penn State at home. This would be a year to get Michigan as they still rebuild, so that is a bummer but in general, it is a good schedule. The OOC slate is ripe for a whipping and that will power NU into yet another bowl game...
OOC: 4-0 (no one here strikes fear into anyone!)
B10: 3-5 (win over Minnesota, Purdue and Indiana)
Overall: 7-5, T-7th in the conference, AT LARGE bowl berth
Editor's Note: This is the third in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Northwestern Wildcats
Tidbits … The Wildcats won nine games in 2008 - the most since the 1996 team went 9-3. It was only the fifth time in school history that the team recorded nine wins. The others? 1898, 1903, 1995 and 1996.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction/actual: 6-6, 2-6 (T-9th) - At Large Bid / 9-4, 5-3 (T-4th) - Alamo Bowl
2007 Prediction/actual: 5-7, 2-6 (9th) / 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th)
2006 Prediction/actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-9th) / 4-8, 2-6 (T-8th)
2005 Prediction/actual: 5-6, 3-5 (T-7th) / 7-5, 5-3 (T-3rd) – Sun Bowl
2004 Prediction/actual: 5-7, 2-6 (9th) / 6-6, 5-3 (4th)
2003 Prediction/actual: 3-9, 0-8 (11th) / 6-7, 4-4 (T-7th) – Motor City Bowl
2002 Prediction/actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-6th) / 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th)
2001 Prediction/actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th) / 4-7, 2-6 (T-10th)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 5 offense, 8 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: QB Mike Kafka, DE Corey Wootton, FS Brad Phillips, SS Brendan Smith
Key Losses: QB C.J. Bacher, RB Tyrell Sutton, DT John Gill, DE Kevin Mims, K Amando Villareal
Looking Back ... Wow! To anyone who doubted the move to Pat Fitzgerald in the wake of Randy Walker's sudden death a few years back, shame on you. Fitzgerald turned in one of the best seasons in school history, rattling off nine wins and making a nice run at Mizzou in the Alamo Bowl. And just think - within the losses was one to - gasp - Indiana. That team had a nice mix of power and finesse on offense and a defense that could step up on occasion. How does it look for 2009? Well, that remains to be seen. But one thing is for sure, Pat Fitzgerald is another big season away from myriad big program coaching opportunities.
Outlook - Offense ... If the Wildcats take a step back in 2009, it will be due to the loss of proven weapons from the offensive arsenal. Mike Kafka got some good experience at quarterback last fall, but Bacher had that winning knack about him. So did Tyrell Sutton, who might be the most missed of them all on the offensive side of the ball. Having to replace three solid wide receivers is no small task either. But enough gloom and doom. What Northwestern does have is a line that returns three starters and Kafka. The key will be for a young back and receiver or two to step up early, otherwise 2009 could be a side step or step back before the next program growth spurt.
Outlook - Defense ... Okay, so how often do we use Northwestern and defense as a strength in the same sentence? Truthfully, not often. That said, the Wildcats have produced some great defenders over the past 10-15 years. The trouble has been fielding defense that is rock solid from top to bottom. Well, this year might be the year. Eight starters return and there are a few others in the starting mix who have seen time but battled injury a season ago. Only two games really got away from the purple and black last year (OSU and MSU) but the defense will have to be even tighter this year if the 'cats are to have success. The entire front four looks good, potentially really good, but each has battled injuries over the years. The back seven is flat out good. The linebackers are quick and athletic, the secondary deep. If this unit can stay healthy, Northwestern will win a few this year with its defense.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Northwestern will miss place kicker Amando Villareal but Stefan Demos may be able to handle all the kicking duties this fall. Northwestern also lost plenty of return game weapons, but the depth that is battling for time at tailback will be a nice positive for that part of special teams this fall.
Schedule:
9/5 - TOWSON
9/12 - EASTERN MICHIGAN
9/19 - at Syracuse
9/26 - MINNESOTA
10/3 - at Purdue
10/10 - MIAMI-OH.
10/17 - at Michigan State
10/24 - INDIANA
10/31 - PENN STATE
11/7 - at Iowa
11/14 - at Illinois
11/21 - WISCONSIN
Key Games:
10/3 - at Purdue, 10/17 - at Michigan State, 11/14 - at Illinois
Prediction ... If only... if only this team had proven firepower returning to the offensive side of the ball, I could easily see better than I am predicting. The schedule isn't bad at all, with no Buckeyes and Penn State at home. This would be a year to get Michigan as they still rebuild, so that is a bummer but in general, it is a good schedule. The OOC slate is ripe for a whipping and that will power NU into yet another bowl game...
OOC: 4-0 (no one here strikes fear into anyone!)
B10: 3-5 (win over Minnesota, Purdue and Indiana)
Overall: 7-5, T-7th in the conference, AT LARGE bowl berth
Monday, July 20, 2009
Big Ten Football Previews – Part II
Editor's Note: This is the second in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Indiana Hoosiers
Tidbits … Indiana's five year trend is 3, 4, 5, 7, 3 ... wins that is. The Hoosiers have been two two bowl games in the lifetime of most current players on the roster.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City / 3-9, 1-7 (11th)
2007 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City / 7-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Insight
2006 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-9th) / 5-7, 3-5 (T-6th)
2005 Prediction / actual: 3-8, 1-7 (11th) / 4-7, 1-7 (10th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th) / 2-10, 1-7 (T-9th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 2-6 (T-10th) / 5-6, 4-4 (T-4th)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 7 offense, 9 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: QB Ben Chappell, DE Greg Middleton, LB Will Patterson, FS Nick Polk
Key Losses: QB Kellen Lewis, RB Marcus Thigpen, DT Greg Brown, K Austin Starr
Looking Back ... How soon the success of one, emotionally charged season can wane. One year after making a run to postseason play for the first time in well over a decade, Indiana was slammed to reality. An injury-riddled 2008 campaign and continuous turmoil from supposed star Kellen Lewis led the Hoosiers from the brink of something consistent to the cellar once more. Maybe we should have seen it coming - the letdown from that season-ending high in 2007. Regardless, there is work to be done in Bloomington this season, or IU will reside in the basement once more.
Outlook - Offense ... Kellen Lewis is gone. So is Marcus Thigpen. Both were big-time playmakers for the Indiana offense. That said, is the loss of Lewis a blessing in disguise? His me-first attitude kept him out of important spring action in 2008 and this go around, it was the end of the road. Ben Chappell has plenty of experience, an offensive front that returns four of five starters and a big trio of wide outs to find down field. The key will be the Indiana ground game. Can Darius Willis go from redshirt to superstar? This offense is going to need Willis - or another back - to balance the attack if the Hoosiers are going to have any sustained success this year.
Outlook - Defense ... Indiana returns nine starters on defense. Ordinarily, that's a good thing. But this is a defense that gave up 42, 55, 45, 55, 34 and 62 in Big Ten tilts a season ago. There are some solid players here, but this unit must gel and come together as one if Indiana is to improve at all on last year's woeful defensive performance. Teams scored 27 times on the ground against IU last fall. The key is for the experienced front seven, led by DEs Greg Middleton and Jammie Kirlew and three-year starting linebacker Will Patterson to return to the form they flashed in 2007. Get some pressure up front and the secondary can gets its licks in. If that front seven flounders, look out - the numbers that seemed bad in '08 could turn catastrophic in '09.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Indiana entered the Big Ten as one of the best in this category last season. But, Austin Starr is gone and so is game-breaking return man Marcus Thigpen. Yes, punter Chris Hagerup returns, but the place-kicking falls to an untested freshman and the Hooisers will be hard-pressed to find a returner with the same speed and knack for finding the holes as Thigpen.
Schedule:
9/3 - EASTERN KENTUCKY
9/12 - WESTERN MICHIGAN
9/19 - at Akron
9/26 - at Michigan
10/3 - OHIO STATE
10/10 - at Virginia
10/17 - ILLINOIS
10/24 - at Northwestern
10/31 - at Iowa
11/7 - WISCONSIN
11/14 - at Penn State
11/21 - PURDUE
Key Games:
9/12 - WESTERN MICHIGAN, 10/10 - at Virgina, 11/21 - PURDUE
Prediction ... Indiana’s bowl berth in 2007 ended a 14-year drought. The Hoosiers’ last winning season before last year came in 1994. Will it be 2020 before IU has another winning season? The recruiting class that comes in was actually a decent haul by Indiana standards and I do like Bill Lynch as the Indiana coach. The key is not to jump the gun and start over - again - if the season plays out as I expect. The OOC slate is much tougher than last year, and the only in conference "break" is no Michigan State. Don't be surprised to see this team pull off a shocker or two, but it might be a lot of the same in 2009...
OOC: 2-2 (Someone call up last year's foursome instead. Wins over EKU and Akron.)
B10: 1-7 (win over Purdue)
Overall: 3-9, 10th in the conference
Editor's Note: This is the second in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Indiana Hoosiers
Tidbits … Indiana's five year trend is 3, 4, 5, 7, 3 ... wins that is. The Hoosiers have been two two bowl games in the lifetime of most current players on the roster.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City / 3-9, 1-7 (11th)
2007 Prediction / actual: 6-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City / 7-6, 3-5 (T-7th), Insight
2006 Prediction / actual: 4-8, 1-7 (T-9th) / 5-7, 3-5 (T-6th)
2005 Prediction / actual: 3-8, 1-7 (11th) / 4-7, 1-7 (10th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-8, 1-7 (T-10th)
2003 Prediction / actual: 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th) / 2-10, 1-7 (T-9th)
2002 Prediction / actual: 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th) / 3-9, 1-7 (T-10th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 4-7, 2-6 (T-10th) / 5-6, 4-4 (T-4th)
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 7 offense, 9 defense, 1 kicker
Key Returnees: QB Ben Chappell, DE Greg Middleton, LB Will Patterson, FS Nick Polk
Key Losses: QB Kellen Lewis, RB Marcus Thigpen, DT Greg Brown, K Austin Starr
Looking Back ... How soon the success of one, emotionally charged season can wane. One year after making a run to postseason play for the first time in well over a decade, Indiana was slammed to reality. An injury-riddled 2008 campaign and continuous turmoil from supposed star Kellen Lewis led the Hoosiers from the brink of something consistent to the cellar once more. Maybe we should have seen it coming - the letdown from that season-ending high in 2007. Regardless, there is work to be done in Bloomington this season, or IU will reside in the basement once more.
Outlook - Offense ... Kellen Lewis is gone. So is Marcus Thigpen. Both were big-time playmakers for the Indiana offense. That said, is the loss of Lewis a blessing in disguise? His me-first attitude kept him out of important spring action in 2008 and this go around, it was the end of the road. Ben Chappell has plenty of experience, an offensive front that returns four of five starters and a big trio of wide outs to find down field. The key will be the Indiana ground game. Can Darius Willis go from redshirt to superstar? This offense is going to need Willis - or another back - to balance the attack if the Hoosiers are going to have any sustained success this year.
Outlook - Defense ... Indiana returns nine starters on defense. Ordinarily, that's a good thing. But this is a defense that gave up 42, 55, 45, 55, 34 and 62 in Big Ten tilts a season ago. There are some solid players here, but this unit must gel and come together as one if Indiana is to improve at all on last year's woeful defensive performance. Teams scored 27 times on the ground against IU last fall. The key is for the experienced front seven, led by DEs Greg Middleton and Jammie Kirlew and three-year starting linebacker Will Patterson to return to the form they flashed in 2007. Get some pressure up front and the secondary can gets its licks in. If that front seven flounders, look out - the numbers that seemed bad in '08 could turn catastrophic in '09.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Indiana entered the Big Ten as one of the best in this category last season. But, Austin Starr is gone and so is game-breaking return man Marcus Thigpen. Yes, punter Chris Hagerup returns, but the place-kicking falls to an untested freshman and the Hooisers will be hard-pressed to find a returner with the same speed and knack for finding the holes as Thigpen.
Schedule:
9/3 - EASTERN KENTUCKY
9/12 - WESTERN MICHIGAN
9/19 - at Akron
9/26 - at Michigan
10/3 - OHIO STATE
10/10 - at Virginia
10/17 - ILLINOIS
10/24 - at Northwestern
10/31 - at Iowa
11/7 - WISCONSIN
11/14 - at Penn State
11/21 - PURDUE
Key Games:
9/12 - WESTERN MICHIGAN, 10/10 - at Virgina, 11/21 - PURDUE
Prediction ... Indiana’s bowl berth in 2007 ended a 14-year drought. The Hoosiers’ last winning season before last year came in 1994. Will it be 2020 before IU has another winning season? The recruiting class that comes in was actually a decent haul by Indiana standards and I do like Bill Lynch as the Indiana coach. The key is not to jump the gun and start over - again - if the season plays out as I expect. The OOC slate is much tougher than last year, and the only in conference "break" is no Michigan State. Don't be surprised to see this team pull off a shocker or two, but it might be a lot of the same in 2009...
OOC: 2-2 (Someone call up last year's foursome instead. Wins over EKU and Akron.)
B10: 1-7 (win over Purdue)
Overall: 3-9, 10th in the conference
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Big Ten Football Previews – Part I
Editor's Note: This is the first in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Purdue Boilermakers
Tidbits … The Boilermakers have made a bowl game in ten of the last 12 seasons, however last year was the second time in four seasons that Purdue was home for the holidays. Consensus has the Boilers as owning the worst rated incoming class in the Big Ten - BUT - a movement towards speed could pay huge dividends immediately.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 4-4 (6th), Insight / 4-8, 2-6 (T-9th)
2007 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th), Alamo / 8-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City
2006 Prediction / actual: 8-5, 4-4 (T-6th), Insight / 8-6, 5-3 (T-4th), Champs
2005 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Outback / 5-6, 3-5 (8th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 5-3 (4th), Outback / 7-5, 4-4 (T-5th), Sun
2003 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-2nd) / 9-4, 6-2 (T-2nd)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th) / 7-6, 4-4 (T-5th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (T-1st) / 6-6, 4-4 (T-4th
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 4 offense, 7 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Joey Elliott, RB Jaycen Taylor, FS Torri Williams, DT Mike Neal
Key Losses: QB Curtis Painter, WR Greg Orton, RB Kory Sheets, LB Anthony Heygood
Looking Back ... Purdue fans would appreciate it if we all just swept 2008 under the rug. It was no way to end a solid tenure for Joe Tiller. Team turmoil and gripes over playing time, philosophies, etc. led to the worst season in West Lafayette in a long, long time.
Outlook - Offense ... Purdue's top four offensive weapons have moved on. Well, make that five. The very promising Justin Siller failed to meet academic expectations, forcing the Boilers to face the season with very little depth or experience at the quarterback position. The good news is that there is some - albeit rather limited - experience in signal caller Joey Elliott. Wide receiver Keith Smith and tailback Jaycen Taylor provide some big play potential and the strength is the offensive line, which returns four starters. I believe that this offense will bog down at times, but look for Danny Hope to inject some of his young speedsters into the fray and for the offense to improve as the season wears on.
Outlook - Defense ... This is where the Boilermakers will have to make hay early in the season. Seven starters return, including a couple of stalwarts up front and a nice wall of linebackers. Health has been an issue for a few of those being counted on for big things in 2009 (LB Jason Werner, FS Torri Williams) and that is a concern since the depth chart is littered with sophomores. Purdue doesn't have a real weakness on the defensive side of the ball, and that is good news considering the plight of the offense. If this group over-achieves at all, the Boilers will be far better than I predict.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Both kickers return, though neither is necessarily upper echelon in the conference. Look for one of the fast frosh to break onto the scene as a key play maker in the return game.
Schedule:
9/5 - TOLEDO
9/12 - at Oregon
9/19 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS
9/26 - NOTRE DAME
10/3 - NORTHWESTERN
10/10 - at Minnesota
10/17 - OHIO STATE
10/24 - ILLINOIS
10/31 - at Wisconsin
11/7 - at Michigan
11/14 - MICHIGAN STATE
11/21 - at Indiana
Key Games:
9/26 - Notre Dame, 11/21 - at Indiana
Prediction ... Did Joe Tiller leave the program in the condition it was when he inherited it? Don't hate on me Purdue friends. This season is gonna be ugly. But it won't last too long. Purdue will be in most games this season and a decent foundation will be laid for the future. Plus, you have a Top Ten - maybe Top Five - hoops program to look forward to watching, so I know you can't wait for winter...
OOC: 2-2 (wins over Toledo and Northern Illinois)
B10: 0-8 (tough sledding in W.L. this fall)
Overall: 2-8, 11th in the conference
Editor's Note: This is the first in a series of my annual summer Big Ten football previews. Check back often to see who’s next...
Team: Purdue Boilermakers
Tidbits … The Boilermakers have made a bowl game in ten of the last 12 seasons, however last year was the second time in four seasons that Purdue was home for the holidays. Consensus has the Boilers as owning the worst rated incoming class in the Big Ten - BUT - a movement towards speed could pay huge dividends immediately.
Past Predictions/Results:
2008 Prediction / actual: 7-5, 4-4 (6th), Insight / 4-8, 2-6 (T-9th)
2007 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 4-4 (T-6th), Alamo / 8-5, 3-5 (T-7th), Motor City
2006 Prediction / actual: 8-5, 4-4 (T-6th), Insight / 8-6, 5-3 (T-4th), Champs
2005 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 4-4 (T-5th), Outback / 5-6, 3-5 (8th)
2004 Prediction / actual: 7-4, 5-3 (4th), Outback / 7-5, 4-4 (T-5th), Sun
2003 Prediction / actual: 10-2, 6-2 (T-2nd) / 9-4, 6-2 (T-2nd)
2002 Prediction / actual: 8-4, 5-3 (T-4th) / 7-6, 4-4 (T-5th)
2001 Prediction / actual: 9-2, 6-2 (T-1st) / 6-6, 4-4 (T-4th
*Note, bowl shown only from 2004 on as I did not predict the bowl berths prior to that season.
Returning Starters: 4 offense, 7 defense, 2 kickers
Key Returnees: QB Joey Elliott, RB Jaycen Taylor, FS Torri Williams, DT Mike Neal
Key Losses: QB Curtis Painter, WR Greg Orton, RB Kory Sheets, LB Anthony Heygood
Looking Back ... Purdue fans would appreciate it if we all just swept 2008 under the rug. It was no way to end a solid tenure for Joe Tiller. Team turmoil and gripes over playing time, philosophies, etc. led to the worst season in West Lafayette in a long, long time.
Outlook - Offense ... Purdue's top four offensive weapons have moved on. Well, make that five. The very promising Justin Siller failed to meet academic expectations, forcing the Boilers to face the season with very little depth or experience at the quarterback position. The good news is that there is some - albeit rather limited - experience in signal caller Joey Elliott. Wide receiver Keith Smith and tailback Jaycen Taylor provide some big play potential and the strength is the offensive line, which returns four starters. I believe that this offense will bog down at times, but look for Danny Hope to inject some of his young speedsters into the fray and for the offense to improve as the season wears on.
Outlook - Defense ... This is where the Boilermakers will have to make hay early in the season. Seven starters return, including a couple of stalwarts up front and a nice wall of linebackers. Health has been an issue for a few of those being counted on for big things in 2009 (LB Jason Werner, FS Torri Williams) and that is a concern since the depth chart is littered with sophomores. Purdue doesn't have a real weakness on the defensive side of the ball, and that is good news considering the plight of the offense. If this group over-achieves at all, the Boilers will be far better than I predict.
Outlook - Special Teams ... Both kickers return, though neither is necessarily upper echelon in the conference. Look for one of the fast frosh to break onto the scene as a key play maker in the return game.
Schedule:
9/5 - TOLEDO
9/12 - at Oregon
9/19 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS
9/26 - NOTRE DAME
10/3 - NORTHWESTERN
10/10 - at Minnesota
10/17 - OHIO STATE
10/24 - ILLINOIS
10/31 - at Wisconsin
11/7 - at Michigan
11/14 - MICHIGAN STATE
11/21 - at Indiana
Key Games:
9/26 - Notre Dame, 11/21 - at Indiana
Prediction ... Did Joe Tiller leave the program in the condition it was when he inherited it? Don't hate on me Purdue friends. This season is gonna be ugly. But it won't last too long. Purdue will be in most games this season and a decent foundation will be laid for the future. Plus, you have a Top Ten - maybe Top Five - hoops program to look forward to watching, so I know you can't wait for winter...
OOC: 2-2 (wins over Toledo and Northern Illinois)
B10: 0-8 (tough sledding in W.L. this fall)
Overall: 2-8, 11th in the conference
Monday, March 30, 2009
To the Big Ten bashers: Bite me.
A wise man once said, in reference to the hub-ub about the Big East getting five teams into the Sweet 16, "The Big East might have five teams in, but it won't rule the Final Four. Two get in, at best - mark my words."
Okay, so really I'm not a wise man, but hey, I was right, so I can gloat a bit, can't I?
Yes, the Big East got two in the Final Four. Once was a given since the East Region finale paired Big East teams. But Syracuse got steamrolled in the Sweet 16 and Louisville got Spartan Slapped in the Elite Eight.
Thanks, by the way, for the congrats and well wishes from fellow Big Ten fans. My beloved Spartans are playing inspired ball and are carrying the "Big Ten sucks" chip on their shoulders. Let's see if we can put it to bed and bring home another title!
How it'll play out in Motown
I had Michigan State in my Final Four on my "sheet of integrity." It has me in first place in my pool. If only Pitt had won I'd be a cool 4-for-4 with the Final Four. But I digress.
Back when the brackets came out, I loved the draw for State. Frankly it is the first time I put MSU through to the Final Four in my "original" bracket since 2005. I also honestly had MSU bowing out to UConn in the Semis. But now I'm not so sure.
When I look at this team, I see multiple people stepping up. Raymar off his game or hurt, no worries - DeDe to the rescue. Need a big shot from outside to stem the tide? Allen and Summers have been as consistent as they've been all season. Need a few minutes to spell Suton? Send in Gray or Ibok. Got to have a big shot and Lucas is being denied? Travis will step up.
There is something special about this team and I truly think that the hard part is done. Getting to Detroit carried a ton of pressure. Now all the talk will be about UConn and UNC. Truth be told, I see MSU and Villanova going toe to toe on Monday with the Spartans cutting down the nets.
What is going on in Iowa City?
Poor Todd Lickliter. Just when it looks like he's getting a team together to play his style, three more hit the road. And we're not talking bench warmers or those disgruntled with PT. To lose Jake Kelly is as devastating to the Hawkeyes as it was to lose Tyler Smith a few years ago. Ouch. What is going on? Is Coach a bad guy? Is it the style? Inquiring minds want to know.
Spring Football begins...
Spring football is here and while I won't really write about it, it gets me thinking that before I know it - it will be time to pour through the preseason rags and whip up my predictions. Feel free to report in on the low down from your favorite campus if there is something noteworthy to spill.
In the meantime, GO STATE (as in Penn State and Michigan State) - let's remind the nation that the best ball is played in the Midwest...
A wise man once said, in reference to the hub-ub about the Big East getting five teams into the Sweet 16, "The Big East might have five teams in, but it won't rule the Final Four. Two get in, at best - mark my words."
Okay, so really I'm not a wise man, but hey, I was right, so I can gloat a bit, can't I?
Yes, the Big East got two in the Final Four. Once was a given since the East Region finale paired Big East teams. But Syracuse got steamrolled in the Sweet 16 and Louisville got Spartan Slapped in the Elite Eight.
Thanks, by the way, for the congrats and well wishes from fellow Big Ten fans. My beloved Spartans are playing inspired ball and are carrying the "Big Ten sucks" chip on their shoulders. Let's see if we can put it to bed and bring home another title!
How it'll play out in Motown
I had Michigan State in my Final Four on my "sheet of integrity." It has me in first place in my pool. If only Pitt had won I'd be a cool 4-for-4 with the Final Four. But I digress.
Back when the brackets came out, I loved the draw for State. Frankly it is the first time I put MSU through to the Final Four in my "original" bracket since 2005. I also honestly had MSU bowing out to UConn in the Semis. But now I'm not so sure.
When I look at this team, I see multiple people stepping up. Raymar off his game or hurt, no worries - DeDe to the rescue. Need a big shot from outside to stem the tide? Allen and Summers have been as consistent as they've been all season. Need a few minutes to spell Suton? Send in Gray or Ibok. Got to have a big shot and Lucas is being denied? Travis will step up.
There is something special about this team and I truly think that the hard part is done. Getting to Detroit carried a ton of pressure. Now all the talk will be about UConn and UNC. Truth be told, I see MSU and Villanova going toe to toe on Monday with the Spartans cutting down the nets.
What is going on in Iowa City?
Poor Todd Lickliter. Just when it looks like he's getting a team together to play his style, three more hit the road. And we're not talking bench warmers or those disgruntled with PT. To lose Jake Kelly is as devastating to the Hawkeyes as it was to lose Tyler Smith a few years ago. Ouch. What is going on? Is Coach a bad guy? Is it the style? Inquiring minds want to know.
Spring Football begins...
Spring football is here and while I won't really write about it, it gets me thinking that before I know it - it will be time to pour through the preseason rags and whip up my predictions. Feel free to report in on the low down from your favorite campus if there is something noteworthy to spill.
In the meantime, GO STATE (as in Penn State and Michigan State) - let's remind the nation that the best ball is played in the Midwest...
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Sweet, Sweet 16
I have a question. When did the use of "chalk" become so prevalent in the vernacular of college basketball analysts? Seriously. Chalk. The brackets have gone chalk. No where in the dictionary is chalk defined as "a measure of the amount of top seeds in the NCAA tournament to march on to the Regional Semifinals." I know. I quadruple checked to make sure I wasn't wrong. See for yourself.
Regardless, call it chalk, call it strong seeding, call it what you want... it is, plain and simple, a very sweet, Sweet 16. Add up the seeds left over and you get 49. The best possible is 40. Record aside, you could argue that Arizona is more like a 4 than a 12. Then the number would be 41.
It is amazing. Why? Because there is almost always a Cinderella of sorts come the second weekend of the tournament. But not this time. In fact, there is a general shortage of mid majors, period. Those that remain - Memphis, Gonzaga, and Xavier - are routinely in the mix with the big boys.
Enough about that though. It's been beaten to death by the media already. What I care about is the fact that Michigan State and Purdue have moved on (as I predicted) and are looking very strong right now. Both beat solid Pac-10 foes in round two and are poised to make more noise in the round of 16.
Purdue has the tougher road, but can definitely beat UConn. Michigan State was written off by the pundits before the USC game and now those same knobs are picking Kansas. Let them.
The Big East might have five teams in, but it won't rule the Final Four. Two get in, at best - mark my words.
The rest and the NIT
The rest of the Big Ten did the league pretty proud in the Dance and NIT. Wisconsin battled back and made a run at the Sweet 16 before losing to a very good Xavier team. Michigan fought adversity in the name of Blake Griffin and made a splash. Minnesota ran into a Texas team that is really better than a 7 seed but was respectable. Ohio State had its chances in a devastating loss to Siena, but the Saints gave Louisville a run for their money. Only Illinois dogged it although WKU is a solid squad.
Kudos to Penn State for advancing to the NIT Semifinals. Bring another one home for the conference.
I have a question. When did the use of "chalk" become so prevalent in the vernacular of college basketball analysts? Seriously. Chalk. The brackets have gone chalk. No where in the dictionary is chalk defined as "a measure of the amount of top seeds in the NCAA tournament to march on to the Regional Semifinals." I know. I quadruple checked to make sure I wasn't wrong. See for yourself.
Regardless, call it chalk, call it strong seeding, call it what you want... it is, plain and simple, a very sweet, Sweet 16. Add up the seeds left over and you get 49. The best possible is 40. Record aside, you could argue that Arizona is more like a 4 than a 12. Then the number would be 41.
It is amazing. Why? Because there is almost always a Cinderella of sorts come the second weekend of the tournament. But not this time. In fact, there is a general shortage of mid majors, period. Those that remain - Memphis, Gonzaga, and Xavier - are routinely in the mix with the big boys.
Enough about that though. It's been beaten to death by the media already. What I care about is the fact that Michigan State and Purdue have moved on (as I predicted) and are looking very strong right now. Both beat solid Pac-10 foes in round two and are poised to make more noise in the round of 16.
Purdue has the tougher road, but can definitely beat UConn. Michigan State was written off by the pundits before the USC game and now those same knobs are picking Kansas. Let them.
The Big East might have five teams in, but it won't rule the Final Four. Two get in, at best - mark my words.
The rest and the NIT
The rest of the Big Ten did the league pretty proud in the Dance and NIT. Wisconsin battled back and made a run at the Sweet 16 before losing to a very good Xavier team. Michigan fought adversity in the name of Blake Griffin and made a splash. Minnesota ran into a Texas team that is really better than a 7 seed but was respectable. Ohio State had its chances in a devastating loss to Siena, but the Saints gave Louisville a run for their money. Only Illinois dogged it although WKU is a solid squad.
Kudos to Penn State for advancing to the NIT Semifinals. Bring another one home for the conference.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Let the Madness begin!
I love this time of year. Scratch that, I live for this time of year! I'm Andy Gamm, and I am a basketball-aholic. I can't wait for the action to start and to catch every single game via my Directv March Mega Madness package. All in HD. Love it!
I also love that the Big Ten got seven in. I think Penn State got screwed by the likes of Arizona and a Mississippi State run in the SEC, but hey, we can't have everything.
As for my predicted top four seeds per region... I nailed the Midwest, got many of the other teams right but was WAY off on a few. Still fun to play Joe Lunardi once in a while. I also nailed MSU and Michigan, was close on Minnesota and Illinois, even if way off on Wisconsin (holy dangerous 12 Batman) and Ohio State (who got screwed and rewarded all at once).
Before I get into my team by team picks, I will say this - kudos to Buckeye Nation who got 8 of the 10 B10 Tourney games right and correctly had Purdue beating his Bucks in the final. I like what OSU has for the future. MSU and OSU should be battling at the top for the next few years... with a little Purdue sprinkled in!
Michigan State: I hope the Spartans get to Detroit for many, many reasons. The first of which is to shut up the likes of Digger and Dickie V. I do have MSU taking care of business all the way to the Final Four, where they lose to UConn.
Purdue: I like the Boilers to do some damage and it wouldn't shock me to see them pick off UConn. But I have them bowing out in the Sweet 16. Watch out for them next year if they can stay healthy.
Illinois: Illinois got a tricky draw with a Western Kentucky team that pulled an upset from the 12 slot last year, and then there is Gonzaga. If Chester Frazier is able to go in round two, Illinois can advance. If not, it will be a win and a second round exit for the Illini.
Ohio State: As I said above, OSU got screwed and rewarded all at once. This team is better than an 8 seed that has to face a tough mid major in Siena and then if that, play number one overall Louisville. The reward? Home cooking in Dayton. If the Bucks get hot, they can pull off a shocker in round two. But I think they are a season away.
Minnesota: Tough draw for the Gophers, but you know they are happy to be there. I like Texas to do some damage in that bracket, so one and done for Minnesota.
Michigan: Yes, even for a Spartan, I felt good for my U-M friends on Sunday. Clemson is no picnic though, and I think here too it is one and done for the Big Ten.
Wisconsin: Florida State has to be saying things I shouldn't write in a blog to the tournament committee. The Badgers, one of the last teams in? I have them making the Sweet 16.
At the end of the day, the Big Ten shows well and quiets even Bobby Knight, who has been dogging his former conference...
My Final Four is MSU, UConn, Pitt and UNC with UNC beating UConn on Monday night.
Let the Madness ensue!
I love this time of year. Scratch that, I live for this time of year! I'm Andy Gamm, and I am a basketball-aholic. I can't wait for the action to start and to catch every single game via my Directv March Mega Madness package. All in HD. Love it!
I also love that the Big Ten got seven in. I think Penn State got screwed by the likes of Arizona and a Mississippi State run in the SEC, but hey, we can't have everything.
As for my predicted top four seeds per region... I nailed the Midwest, got many of the other teams right but was WAY off on a few. Still fun to play Joe Lunardi once in a while. I also nailed MSU and Michigan, was close on Minnesota and Illinois, even if way off on Wisconsin (holy dangerous 12 Batman) and Ohio State (who got screwed and rewarded all at once).
Before I get into my team by team picks, I will say this - kudos to Buckeye Nation who got 8 of the 10 B10 Tourney games right and correctly had Purdue beating his Bucks in the final. I like what OSU has for the future. MSU and OSU should be battling at the top for the next few years... with a little Purdue sprinkled in!
Michigan State: I hope the Spartans get to Detroit for many, many reasons. The first of which is to shut up the likes of Digger and Dickie V. I do have MSU taking care of business all the way to the Final Four, where they lose to UConn.
Purdue: I like the Boilers to do some damage and it wouldn't shock me to see them pick off UConn. But I have them bowing out in the Sweet 16. Watch out for them next year if they can stay healthy.
Illinois: Illinois got a tricky draw with a Western Kentucky team that pulled an upset from the 12 slot last year, and then there is Gonzaga. If Chester Frazier is able to go in round two, Illinois can advance. If not, it will be a win and a second round exit for the Illini.
Ohio State: As I said above, OSU got screwed and rewarded all at once. This team is better than an 8 seed that has to face a tough mid major in Siena and then if that, play number one overall Louisville. The reward? Home cooking in Dayton. If the Bucks get hot, they can pull off a shocker in round two. But I think they are a season away.
Minnesota: Tough draw for the Gophers, but you know they are happy to be there. I like Texas to do some damage in that bracket, so one and done for Minnesota.
Michigan: Yes, even for a Spartan, I felt good for my U-M friends on Sunday. Clemson is no picnic though, and I think here too it is one and done for the Big Ten.
Wisconsin: Florida State has to be saying things I shouldn't write in a blog to the tournament committee. The Badgers, one of the last teams in? I have them making the Sweet 16.
At the end of the day, the Big Ten shows well and quiets even Bobby Knight, who has been dogging his former conference...
My Final Four is MSU, UConn, Pitt and UNC with UNC beating UConn on Monday night.
Let the Madness ensue!
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Tourney Time
Before Ohio State and Purdue battle today for the B10 Tourney crown, I thought I would get out my Top 4 seeds by region. Good luck to the Bucks and Boilers. Both are playing solid basketball this weekend.
East:
1 - Pittsburgh
2 - Duke
3 - Mizzou
4 - Tennessee
Midwest:
1 - Louisville
2 - Michigan State
3 - Kansas
4 - Wake Forest
South:
1 - North Carolina
2 - UConn
3 - LSU
4 - Purdue
West:
1 - Memphis
2 - Oklahoma
3 - Washington
4 - Syracuse
The rest of the Big Ten...
Ohio State gets a 5
Illinois gets a 6
Wisconsin gets an 8
Michigan gets a 10
Minnesota gets an 11
Penn State gets a 12
O
Before Ohio State and Purdue battle today for the B10 Tourney crown, I thought I would get out my Top 4 seeds by region. Good luck to the Bucks and Boilers. Both are playing solid basketball this weekend.
East:
1 - Pittsburgh
2 - Duke
3 - Mizzou
4 - Tennessee
Midwest:
1 - Louisville
2 - Michigan State
3 - Kansas
4 - Wake Forest
South:
1 - North Carolina
2 - UConn
3 - LSU
4 - Purdue
West:
1 - Memphis
2 - Oklahoma
3 - Washington
4 - Syracuse
The rest of the Big Ten...
Ohio State gets a 5
Illinois gets a 6
Wisconsin gets an 8
Michigan gets a 10
Minnesota gets an 11
Penn State gets a 12
O
Monday, March 09, 2009
Tourney Time...
We had a very fitting week of upsets to lead us into March Madness. Indiana gave Big Ten Champ MSU all it could handle. Penn State hit a buzzer beater to beat Illinois. Northwestern shocked Purdue on the road. Michigan stunned Minnesota at The Barn. Iowa took out Penn State in double overtime. As a basketball fan, I was loving every minute of it. Even if it meant sweating the Get Gamm title!
I had a good year for me - my first with finishes at the top in both football and hoops. Congrats to Mayo with the bold pick of the NU over PU upset. We're not playing for records anymore - just pride - but you do get to pick the Big Ten tourney with me...
Here is the full, pretty schedule.
Here is my breakdown...
Thursday:
#8 Minnesota vs. #9 Northwestern - Both teams need wins to go dancing, though NU needs them more. Should be a great, great game. Both come in off of tough losses. Northwestern gets a rare first day win. NORTHWESTERN
#7 Michigan vs. #10 Iowa - Trust me, no one wants to play Iowa in this thing. The Hawkeyes always fare well in these, or so it seems - especially when facing a four in four situation. Iowa won't win this tournament, but they may well put Michigan back on the bubble. IOWA
#6 Penn State vs. #11 Indiana - The Nittany Lions shot themselves in the foot with the loss at Iowa but can make a statement with a big win. IU has nothing whatsoever to lose, which makes them dangerous. Still, Penn State wants to go dancing. PENN STATE
Friday:
#9 Northwestern vs. #1 Michigan State - The Wildcats have picked off MSU on day one before but the Spartans have championships on their mind. Oh and a little payback for what then seemed like a devastating home loss for the Spartans. MICHIGAN STATE
#5 Ohio State vs. #4 Wisconsin - This should be a great game. Wisconsin is playing well right now and wants a shot to ruin MSU's dreams in the Semi's yet again. In an overtime thriller... WISCONSIN
#10 Iowa vs. #2 Illinois - Illinois has lost two in a row to end the season and has had a lot of time to think about it. I have a feeling about Iowa, but I'm talking myself out of it. ILLINOIS
#6 Penn State vs. #3 Purdue - Purdue is also reeling of late. Penn State could use another win to solidify its spot, but Purdue has something to prove. PURDUE
Saturday:
#4 Wisconsin vs. #1 Michigan State - A must watch game. Wisconsin has stabbed MSU's dreams in the heart so many times over the past several years - this round of the Big Ten Tourney included. This time, MSU wills itself to a scrappy win. MICHIGAN STATE
#3 Purdue vs. #2 Illinois - Illinois is 2-0 against the Boilers this year. The Illini will not make it a three-for. PURDUE
Sunday:
#3 Purdue vs. #1 Michigan State - A rubber match between the two best teams in the Big Ten. Purdue has a bit of an edge playing in its home state. Michigan State has the most recent upper hand though, which could creep into Purdue's mind. MSU is playing for a #1 seed out west. Purdue for a spot on the 4-line. I am tossing a coin. Head it's MSU, Tails it's Purdue... Heads... MICHIGAN STATE
We had a very fitting week of upsets to lead us into March Madness. Indiana gave Big Ten Champ MSU all it could handle. Penn State hit a buzzer beater to beat Illinois. Northwestern shocked Purdue on the road. Michigan stunned Minnesota at The Barn. Iowa took out Penn State in double overtime. As a basketball fan, I was loving every minute of it. Even if it meant sweating the Get Gamm title!
I had a good year for me - my first with finishes at the top in both football and hoops. Congrats to Mayo with the bold pick of the NU over PU upset. We're not playing for records anymore - just pride - but you do get to pick the Big Ten tourney with me...
Here is the full, pretty schedule.
Here is my breakdown...
Thursday:
#8 Minnesota vs. #9 Northwestern - Both teams need wins to go dancing, though NU needs them more. Should be a great, great game. Both come in off of tough losses. Northwestern gets a rare first day win. NORTHWESTERN
#7 Michigan vs. #10 Iowa - Trust me, no one wants to play Iowa in this thing. The Hawkeyes always fare well in these, or so it seems - especially when facing a four in four situation. Iowa won't win this tournament, but they may well put Michigan back on the bubble. IOWA
#6 Penn State vs. #11 Indiana - The Nittany Lions shot themselves in the foot with the loss at Iowa but can make a statement with a big win. IU has nothing whatsoever to lose, which makes them dangerous. Still, Penn State wants to go dancing. PENN STATE
Friday:
#9 Northwestern vs. #1 Michigan State - The Wildcats have picked off MSU on day one before but the Spartans have championships on their mind. Oh and a little payback for what then seemed like a devastating home loss for the Spartans. MICHIGAN STATE
#5 Ohio State vs. #4 Wisconsin - This should be a great game. Wisconsin is playing well right now and wants a shot to ruin MSU's dreams in the Semi's yet again. In an overtime thriller... WISCONSIN
#10 Iowa vs. #2 Illinois - Illinois has lost two in a row to end the season and has had a lot of time to think about it. I have a feeling about Iowa, but I'm talking myself out of it. ILLINOIS
#6 Penn State vs. #3 Purdue - Purdue is also reeling of late. Penn State could use another win to solidify its spot, but Purdue has something to prove. PURDUE
Saturday:
#4 Wisconsin vs. #1 Michigan State - A must watch game. Wisconsin has stabbed MSU's dreams in the heart so many times over the past several years - this round of the Big Ten Tourney included. This time, MSU wills itself to a scrappy win. MICHIGAN STATE
#3 Purdue vs. #2 Illinois - Illinois is 2-0 against the Boilers this year. The Illini will not make it a three-for. PURDUE
Sunday:
#3 Purdue vs. #1 Michigan State - A rubber match between the two best teams in the Big Ten. Purdue has a bit of an edge playing in its home state. Michigan State has the most recent upper hand though, which could creep into Purdue's mind. MSU is playing for a #1 seed out west. Purdue for a spot on the 4-line. I am tossing a coin. Head it's MSU, Tails it's Purdue... Heads... MICHIGAN STATE
Thursday, March 05, 2009
Big Ten awards time...
Yes, I am aware that there is still a weekend of play remaining, but my ballots are done. I've done my homework (stats) and watched enough games (probably half of at least 75% of the games this year) to know who I want if I am picking my best five players.
Note, I don't believe you pick a player at each position. I believe you pick the five best. I'll also give my defensive player of the year and coach of the year and an update on who will go where for the postseason.
Quickly though, a shout out to NU for the stunner at Mackey. Makes up for the blown lead game at Welsh-Ryan back in January. And that comeback win for Penn State over Illinois? Excellent.
Gamm's All Big Ten:
Evan Turner (G) - Ohio State: Leads the Big Ten in scoring (17.3 ppg), third in rebounds (7.1 rpg), fourth in assists (4.4 apg). Top ten in shooting percentage, top 12 in free throw shooting percentage.
Kalin Lucas (G) - Michigan State: Second in the Big Ten in scoring (16.2 ppg), ninth in assists (3.9 apg). Among the fastest point guards in the nation. Can take a game over with shooting, scoring or passing. Third in free throw percentage.
Talor Battle (G) - Penn State: Fifth in the Big Ten in scoring (15.3 ppg), second in assists (4.5 apg), 16th in rebounding (5.3 rpg). A guy who can take the game over (see last night for instance) with speed and versatility.
Manny Harris (Point Forward) - Michigan: Fourth in the league in scoring (15.4 ppg), fifth in rebounding (6.9 rpg), 10th in assists (3.6 apg). Edges out teammate DeShawn Sims who might actually be the better pro prospect.
Robbie Hummel (Forward) - Purdue: Despite the time he missed, when he's on the court, he makes Purdue a great team. Without question, a fully healthy Hummel is the best player in the league. His stats don't tell his story, so I am leaving them out.
Honorable mention: Raymar Morgan, Kevin Coble, DeShawn Sims, Jamelle Cornley.
Player of the Year:
The most valuable player for his team - any team - is Evan Turner. Hands down the best producer this Big Ten season. Without him, the Buckeyes are NIT at best.
Coach of the Year:
Ed DeChellis - Penn State. Tied for their highest win total ever in conference play. Beat Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois (twice). Could garner the two seed in the Big Ten Tournament.
Postseason Predictions:
Michigan State - win out and get a #1. Otherwise, a #2 seems like a lock.
Purdue - could go as high as a 4, but more likely a 5.
Illinois - locked in at a 6.
Penn State - could also get to a 6, more likely a 7 or 8.
Ohio State - 8 or 9.
Wisconsin - 10 at best.
Minnesota - 10.
Michigan and Northwestern slide to the NIT as some of the last teams out.
*Note - all stats are conference game stats only
Yes, I am aware that there is still a weekend of play remaining, but my ballots are done. I've done my homework (stats) and watched enough games (probably half of at least 75% of the games this year) to know who I want if I am picking my best five players.
Note, I don't believe you pick a player at each position. I believe you pick the five best. I'll also give my defensive player of the year and coach of the year and an update on who will go where for the postseason.
Quickly though, a shout out to NU for the stunner at Mackey. Makes up for the blown lead game at Welsh-Ryan back in January. And that comeback win for Penn State over Illinois? Excellent.
Gamm's All Big Ten:
Evan Turner (G) - Ohio State: Leads the Big Ten in scoring (17.3 ppg), third in rebounds (7.1 rpg), fourth in assists (4.4 apg). Top ten in shooting percentage, top 12 in free throw shooting percentage.
Kalin Lucas (G) - Michigan State: Second in the Big Ten in scoring (16.2 ppg), ninth in assists (3.9 apg). Among the fastest point guards in the nation. Can take a game over with shooting, scoring or passing. Third in free throw percentage.
Talor Battle (G) - Penn State: Fifth in the Big Ten in scoring (15.3 ppg), second in assists (4.5 apg), 16th in rebounding (5.3 rpg). A guy who can take the game over (see last night for instance) with speed and versatility.
Manny Harris (Point Forward) - Michigan: Fourth in the league in scoring (15.4 ppg), fifth in rebounding (6.9 rpg), 10th in assists (3.6 apg). Edges out teammate DeShawn Sims who might actually be the better pro prospect.
Robbie Hummel (Forward) - Purdue: Despite the time he missed, when he's on the court, he makes Purdue a great team. Without question, a fully healthy Hummel is the best player in the league. His stats don't tell his story, so I am leaving them out.
Honorable mention: Raymar Morgan, Kevin Coble, DeShawn Sims, Jamelle Cornley.
Player of the Year:
The most valuable player for his team - any team - is Evan Turner. Hands down the best producer this Big Ten season. Without him, the Buckeyes are NIT at best.
Coach of the Year:
Ed DeChellis - Penn State. Tied for their highest win total ever in conference play. Beat Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois (twice). Could garner the two seed in the Big Ten Tournament.
Postseason Predictions:
Michigan State - win out and get a #1. Otherwise, a #2 seems like a lock.
Purdue - could go as high as a 4, but more likely a 5.
Illinois - locked in at a 6.
Penn State - could also get to a 6, more likely a 7 or 8.
Ohio State - 8 or 9.
Wisconsin - 10 at best.
Minnesota - 10.
Michigan and Northwestern slide to the NIT as some of the last teams out.
*Note - all stats are conference game stats only
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
Get Gamm - last round
We'll take our shots at the postseason too, but this is the last week in the content.
Tuesday:
Michigan State at Indiana - MSU is playing this game tournament style - with less than 48 hours to prepare and still on the road after the big win at Illinois. IU will be geared up but Michigan State clinches with a 10 point win.
Ohio State at Iowa - An absolute must-win for the Buckeyes who remain a team that comes on and off the bubble. The Hawkeyes scrap and claw but OSU pulls it out in the end.
Wednesday:
Northwestern at Purdue - Northwestern wants to win for the blown opportunity against the Boilers at home earlier this season. No go. Purdue is playing for NCAA position now.
Wisconsin at Minnesota - Another payback opportunity. Wisconsin blew it big time against the Gophers earlier this season. But Minny is playing for its NCAA life. When in doubt, go with the home team.
Thursday:
Illinois at Penn State - Paybacks can be hell. We all know watching the first game between these teams was just that! Illinois gets it back on the road.
Saturday:
Michigan at Minnesota - A must win for Michigan if they want to get back in the NCAA hunt. That's really the case for both teams, which makes this a great game. Minnesota rules the home court...
Penn State at Iowa - Penn State needs one after a home loss to Illinois. And gets it...
Sunday:
Purdue at Michigan State (tiebreaker) - A relaxed Spartans team plays much better than one wound tight. Purdue would love to ruin Senior Day and lay claim to have beaten the outright champs twice - but that won't happen. MSU 68 - Purdue 64.
Northwestern at Ohio State - another one on the Payback Week slate. Northwestern stormed back against OSU a few weeks back and got a huge win. Ohio State needs this one to feel comfortable. Buckeyes win.
Indiana at Wisconsin - no contest. Wisconsin rolls.
We'll take our shots at the postseason too, but this is the last week in the content.
Tuesday:
Michigan State at Indiana - MSU is playing this game tournament style - with less than 48 hours to prepare and still on the road after the big win at Illinois. IU will be geared up but Michigan State clinches with a 10 point win.
Ohio State at Iowa - An absolute must-win for the Buckeyes who remain a team that comes on and off the bubble. The Hawkeyes scrap and claw but OSU pulls it out in the end.
Wednesday:
Northwestern at Purdue - Northwestern wants to win for the blown opportunity against the Boilers at home earlier this season. No go. Purdue is playing for NCAA position now.
Wisconsin at Minnesota - Another payback opportunity. Wisconsin blew it big time against the Gophers earlier this season. But Minny is playing for its NCAA life. When in doubt, go with the home team.
Thursday:
Illinois at Penn State - Paybacks can be hell. We all know watching the first game between these teams was just that! Illinois gets it back on the road.
Saturday:
Michigan at Minnesota - A must win for Michigan if they want to get back in the NCAA hunt. That's really the case for both teams, which makes this a great game. Minnesota rules the home court...
Penn State at Iowa - Penn State needs one after a home loss to Illinois. And gets it...
Sunday:
Purdue at Michigan State (tiebreaker) - A relaxed Spartans team plays much better than one wound tight. Purdue would love to ruin Senior Day and lay claim to have beaten the outright champs twice - but that won't happen. MSU 68 - Purdue 64.
Northwestern at Ohio State - another one on the Payback Week slate. Northwestern stormed back against OSU a few weeks back and got a huge win. Ohio State needs this one to feel comfortable. Buckeyes win.
Indiana at Wisconsin - no contest. Wisconsin rolls.
Monday, March 02, 2009
Big Ten top is clear, the middle? Not so much...
One more win and that long, painful wait for another Big Ten title is totally over. For those who had their head in the sand last week... Michigan popped Purdue in the mouth and then Michigan State got a rare win on Senior Day in Champaign (first ILL loss at home on said day since 1999) to clinch a tie for the title.
Get Gamm is starting to clear up too. With just this one last week to go, I've got a two game lead on the pack. No one beat me last week so it's just me vs. the field. Can Buckeye Nation pick up the games to beat me and re-claim his title?
Here are the games this week:
Tuesday:
Michigan State at Indiana
Ohio State at Iowa
Wednesday:
Northwestern at Purdue
Wisconsin at Minnesota
Thursday:
Illinois at Penn State
Saturday:
Michigan at Minnesota
Penn State at Iowa
Sunday:
Purdue at Michigan State (tiebreaker)
Northwestern at Ohio State
Indiana at Wisconsin
And I'll leave you with this... if Travis Walton isn't B10 Defensive Player of the Year, something is seriously wrong. What about B10 PoTY? That one is a wide open race. My vote? Stay tuned!
One more win and that long, painful wait for another Big Ten title is totally over. For those who had their head in the sand last week... Michigan popped Purdue in the mouth and then Michigan State got a rare win on Senior Day in Champaign (first ILL loss at home on said day since 1999) to clinch a tie for the title.
Get Gamm is starting to clear up too. With just this one last week to go, I've got a two game lead on the pack. No one beat me last week so it's just me vs. the field. Can Buckeye Nation pick up the games to beat me and re-claim his title?
Here are the games this week:
Tuesday:
Michigan State at Indiana
Ohio State at Iowa
Wednesday:
Northwestern at Purdue
Wisconsin at Minnesota
Thursday:
Illinois at Penn State
Saturday:
Michigan at Minnesota
Penn State at Iowa
Sunday:
Purdue at Michigan State (tiebreaker)
Northwestern at Ohio State
Indiana at Wisconsin
And I'll leave you with this... if Travis Walton isn't B10 Defensive Player of the Year, something is seriously wrong. What about B10 PoTY? That one is a wide open race. My vote? Stay tuned!
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Get Gamm...
No time to mince words. Let's roll!
Tuesday:
Penn State at Ohio State
Gamm says: Ohio State snaps a three game losing streak.
Buckeye Nation says: Just when most Buckeye fans thought their team was in the driver's seat for an invite to the Big Dance, two losses to teams from the Land of Lincoln who couldn't miss whatever they put up, put them squarely back on the NCAA tournament bubble. The game against the Nittany Lions now becomes a veritable "must win" situation for the young Buckeyes at a time when a little self-doubt is creeping into the Buckeye psyche. Moreover, the Nits feature Jamelle Cornley, a local Columbus City League product, who has been mouthing off that his team will beat the Bucks, ever since he arrived at State College. The Buckeyes have their backs against the wall, and it will take a focused, aggressive approach on offense and defense for OSU to prevail. Given these circumstances, the Schott should be rocking, and the home court will be the decisive edge in what should be a rock 'em - sock 'em Big 10 game. Ohio State 65 - Penn State 61
Mayo170 says: Ohio State
Wednesday:
Northwestern at Indiana
Gamm says: Northwestern has NIT on their minds. IU gives it a run and could easily win, but I like NU here.
Buckeye Nation says: Indiana
Mayo170 says: Northwestern seems to be a couple of games out of the dance at this point, and after getting blown out by Minnesota, it’s all about getting more wins. Indiana on the other hand is playing hard, but not very talented. My guess is that Northwestern is going to win this game, but IU will keep it close. NU 54 – IU 51
Iowa at Michigan State
Gamm says: Can't take anyone in this conference as a gimme win. Spartans were stretched to the limit on Sunday but have what it takes to finally close out another conference title. It starts with this one, where Raymar has his best game in six weeks and MSU runs away. MSU 71 - Iowa 52.
Buckeye Nation says: Michigan State
Mayo170 says: Michigan State
Thursday:
Minnesota at Illinois
Gamm says: Huge game for both teams. Illinois proved that they are not invincible at home. Minnesota got right with a huge win over NU. Illini barely stay in the race to set up a Sunday showdown.
Buckeye Nation says: Illinois
Mayo170 says: Minnesota has been so hard to figure out this year. The Barn will absolutely be up for this game, and Illinois is putting together a pretty nice season. I had my doubts about Weber keeping things going after Self left a while back, but this team is tough to beat. Illinois seems pretty determined to get things rolling before tourney time. Illinois 68 – Minnesota 59
Purdue at Michigan
Gamm says: Michigan's dreams of getting back to the dance likely dissipated in Iowa City. Purdue has a title in mind. Purdue rolls.
Buckeye Nation says: Purdue
Mayo170 says: Well, if Michigan really needed a win, it was this past weekend at Iowa. Of course, they blew that one and now they have a very tough go of it to try and get back on the bubble. This is been Michigan recently though, the end of the season when they can put it together, it starts falling apart. Purdue on the other hand has been playing much better since the train wreck at the start of conference play. I thought Michigan might be able to get into the Tournament this year, but it’s back to the Not Invited Tournament and Purdue cements that with a big win. Purdue 71 – Michigan 54.
Saturday:
Iowa at Northwestern
Gamm says: Northwestern gets a big win and steps closer to the NIT.
Buckeye Nation says: Northwestern
Mayo170 says: Iowa
Ohio State at Purdue
Gamm says: Purdue has payback in mind. Big time payback.
Buckeye Nation says: Paybacks are hell, especially in the Big 10. I fully expect the Buckeyes to give a game effort in West Lafayette, especially given the liability they will face there as a road team. However, the Boilermakers are nearly healthy with the return of Robbie Hummel. Plus, they no doubt remember the OT loss they suffered in Columbus earlier in the month. As much as I hope I'm wrong, my mind and my gut tells me that the Boilers win this game, although it shouldn't be a cakewalk. Purdue 71 Ohio State 64
Mayo170 says: Purdue
Indiana at Penn State
Gamm says: Penn State puts any bubble talk to rest.
Buckeye Nation says: Penn State
Mayo170 says: Penn State
Sunday:
Michigan at Wisconsin
Gamm says: Wisconsin makes up for the fall in East Lansing.
Buckeye Nation says: For the Wolverines, a trip to Madison against a resurgent Badger team is NOT what the doctor ordered. Michigan has the marquee wins on its resume, but not really when it comes to wins in the conference. Except for a recent stumble in East Lansing, Bo Ryan has Wisconsin on a roll. While Michigan may have a chance if they go lights-out from 3 point-land, they will likely be intimidated by the Kohl fieldhouse crowd and go down. Wisconsin 71 Michigan 60
Mayo170 says: Wisconsin
Michigan State at Illinois (Tiebreaker)
Gamm says: This one pulls me in two very different directions. State struggles at Illinois. But Illinois isn't unbeatable at Assembly as proven by Penn State. The teams battled in January in a very defensive game. Win this and State likely clinches at least a tie (if not completely, theoretically). An Illinois win keeps them right in the mix. Coin toss. MSU 58 - ILL 57.
Buckeye Nation says: After embarrassing themselves at home last week against Penn State, the Illini seemingly couldn't miss a basket when they came away with a huge win over the Buckeyes in Columbus, and thus put themselves back in the race for a chance at the Big 10 championship, IF MSU can stumble one more time. But for that to be a possibility, the Illini have to beat the Spartans at home, which will be extremely difficult. When Illinois plays well, they look like world-beaters, when they don't, all you can see is Bruce Weber whining about everything. Tom Izzo has his team well-positioned to win yet another regular season Big 10 title, and he will have MSU ready to pull off a big road win. However, my gut tells me that the Spartans will come up just a little short before a raucous crowd in Assembly Hall. After the final buzzer sounds, they will be toasting in Champaign-Urbana, with hopes that Purdue can pull off the miracle at the end of the season in East Lansing. Illinois 78 Michigan State 76
Mayo170 says: What a great game this is turning out to be. Lot’s of marbles on the floor for this one. I really like the way MSU has played this year, all things (illness mostly) considered. Illinois has made some waves this year too, and could put a big end-of-the-year boost in the win column with this game. MSU should have everyone totally healthy and practicing/playing full-speed by the time this one rolls around. The road has been very good to the Spartans this season and I think their defense will be enough to win this one. MSU 63 – Illinois 58
No time to mince words. Let's roll!
Tuesday:
Penn State at Ohio State
Gamm says: Ohio State snaps a three game losing streak.
Buckeye Nation says: Just when most Buckeye fans thought their team was in the driver's seat for an invite to the Big Dance, two losses to teams from the Land of Lincoln who couldn't miss whatever they put up, put them squarely back on the NCAA tournament bubble. The game against the Nittany Lions now becomes a veritable "must win" situation for the young Buckeyes at a time when a little self-doubt is creeping into the Buckeye psyche. Moreover, the Nits feature Jamelle Cornley, a local Columbus City League product, who has been mouthing off that his team will beat the Bucks, ever since he arrived at State College. The Buckeyes have their backs against the wall, and it will take a focused, aggressive approach on offense and defense for OSU to prevail. Given these circumstances, the Schott should be rocking, and the home court will be the decisive edge in what should be a rock 'em - sock 'em Big 10 game. Ohio State 65 - Penn State 61
Mayo170 says: Ohio State
Wednesday:
Northwestern at Indiana
Gamm says: Northwestern has NIT on their minds. IU gives it a run and could easily win, but I like NU here.
Buckeye Nation says: Indiana
Mayo170 says: Northwestern seems to be a couple of games out of the dance at this point, and after getting blown out by Minnesota, it’s all about getting more wins. Indiana on the other hand is playing hard, but not very talented. My guess is that Northwestern is going to win this game, but IU will keep it close. NU 54 – IU 51
Iowa at Michigan State
Gamm says: Can't take anyone in this conference as a gimme win. Spartans were stretched to the limit on Sunday but have what it takes to finally close out another conference title. It starts with this one, where Raymar has his best game in six weeks and MSU runs away. MSU 71 - Iowa 52.
Buckeye Nation says: Michigan State
Mayo170 says: Michigan State
Thursday:
Minnesota at Illinois
Gamm says: Huge game for both teams. Illinois proved that they are not invincible at home. Minnesota got right with a huge win over NU. Illini barely stay in the race to set up a Sunday showdown.
Buckeye Nation says: Illinois
Mayo170 says: Minnesota has been so hard to figure out this year. The Barn will absolutely be up for this game, and Illinois is putting together a pretty nice season. I had my doubts about Weber keeping things going after Self left a while back, but this team is tough to beat. Illinois seems pretty determined to get things rolling before tourney time. Illinois 68 – Minnesota 59
Purdue at Michigan
Gamm says: Michigan's dreams of getting back to the dance likely dissipated in Iowa City. Purdue has a title in mind. Purdue rolls.
Buckeye Nation says: Purdue
Mayo170 says: Well, if Michigan really needed a win, it was this past weekend at Iowa. Of course, they blew that one and now they have a very tough go of it to try and get back on the bubble. This is been Michigan recently though, the end of the season when they can put it together, it starts falling apart. Purdue on the other hand has been playing much better since the train wreck at the start of conference play. I thought Michigan might be able to get into the Tournament this year, but it’s back to the Not Invited Tournament and Purdue cements that with a big win. Purdue 71 – Michigan 54.
Saturday:
Iowa at Northwestern
Gamm says: Northwestern gets a big win and steps closer to the NIT.
Buckeye Nation says: Northwestern
Mayo170 says: Iowa
Ohio State at Purdue
Gamm says: Purdue has payback in mind. Big time payback.
Buckeye Nation says: Paybacks are hell, especially in the Big 10. I fully expect the Buckeyes to give a game effort in West Lafayette, especially given the liability they will face there as a road team. However, the Boilermakers are nearly healthy with the return of Robbie Hummel. Plus, they no doubt remember the OT loss they suffered in Columbus earlier in the month. As much as I hope I'm wrong, my mind and my gut tells me that the Boilers win this game, although it shouldn't be a cakewalk. Purdue 71 Ohio State 64
Mayo170 says: Purdue
Indiana at Penn State
Gamm says: Penn State puts any bubble talk to rest.
Buckeye Nation says: Penn State
Mayo170 says: Penn State
Sunday:
Michigan at Wisconsin
Gamm says: Wisconsin makes up for the fall in East Lansing.
Buckeye Nation says: For the Wolverines, a trip to Madison against a resurgent Badger team is NOT what the doctor ordered. Michigan has the marquee wins on its resume, but not really when it comes to wins in the conference. Except for a recent stumble in East Lansing, Bo Ryan has Wisconsin on a roll. While Michigan may have a chance if they go lights-out from 3 point-land, they will likely be intimidated by the Kohl fieldhouse crowd and go down. Wisconsin 71 Michigan 60
Mayo170 says: Wisconsin
Michigan State at Illinois (Tiebreaker)
Gamm says: This one pulls me in two very different directions. State struggles at Illinois. But Illinois isn't unbeatable at Assembly as proven by Penn State. The teams battled in January in a very defensive game. Win this and State likely clinches at least a tie (if not completely, theoretically). An Illinois win keeps them right in the mix. Coin toss. MSU 58 - ILL 57.
Buckeye Nation says: After embarrassing themselves at home last week against Penn State, the Illini seemingly couldn't miss a basket when they came away with a huge win over the Buckeyes in Columbus, and thus put themselves back in the race for a chance at the Big 10 championship, IF MSU can stumble one more time. But for that to be a possibility, the Illini have to beat the Spartans at home, which will be extremely difficult. When Illinois plays well, they look like world-beaters, when they don't, all you can see is Bruce Weber whining about everything. Tom Izzo has his team well-positioned to win yet another regular season Big 10 title, and he will have MSU ready to pull off a big road win. However, my gut tells me that the Spartans will come up just a little short before a raucous crowd in Assembly Hall. After the final buzzer sounds, they will be toasting in Champaign-Urbana, with hopes that Purdue can pull off the miracle at the end of the season in East Lansing. Illinois 78 Michigan State 76
Mayo170 says: What a great game this is turning out to be. Lot’s of marbles on the floor for this one. I really like the way MSU has played this year, all things (illness mostly) considered. Illinois has made some waves this year too, and could put a big end-of-the-year boost in the win column with this game. MSU should have everyone totally healthy and practicing/playing full-speed by the time this one rolls around. The road has been very good to the Spartans this season and I think their defense will be enough to win this one. MSU 63 – Illinois 58
Monday, February 23, 2009
Hang on for a wild ride...
We've got a great race to the finish, and bigger than that, an excellent race to see if the Big Ten can land as many as eight teams in the Big Dance.
Mayo and Buckeye tied with the best records last week, so see below for which games you'll pick.
Two weeks to go. Gonna be a wild ride!
Tuesday:
Penn State at Ohio State (Buckeye Nation)
Wednesday:
Northwestern at Indiana (Mayo)
Iowa at Michigan State (Gamm)
Thursday:
Minnesota at Illinois (Mayo)
Purdue at Michigan (Mayo)
Saturday:
Iowa at Northwestern
Ohio State at Purdue (Buckeye Nation)
Indiana at Penn State
Sunday:
Michigan at Wisconsin (Buckeye Nation)
Michigan State at Illinois (Tiebreaker - all three pick)
We've got a great race to the finish, and bigger than that, an excellent race to see if the Big Ten can land as many as eight teams in the Big Dance.
Mayo and Buckeye tied with the best records last week, so see below for which games you'll pick.
Two weeks to go. Gonna be a wild ride!
Tuesday:
Penn State at Ohio State (Buckeye Nation)
Wednesday:
Northwestern at Indiana (Mayo)
Iowa at Michigan State (Gamm)
Thursday:
Minnesota at Illinois (Mayo)
Purdue at Michigan (Mayo)
Saturday:
Iowa at Northwestern
Ohio State at Purdue (Buckeye Nation)
Indiana at Penn State
Sunday:
Michigan at Wisconsin (Buckeye Nation)
Michigan State at Illinois (Tiebreaker - all three pick)
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